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000
FXUS64 KMOB 111129
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
629 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

MVFR ceilings persist across the forecast area this morning and
will likely linger through late afternoon. Gusty winds shift from
westerly this morning to northwesterly by late morning into early
afternoon, generally sustained around 15 to 20 knots gusting
upwards of 30 knots at times. Winds relax and VFR conditions
return closer to sunset with westerly winds around 5 to 10 knots
tonight into the overnight hours. MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A potent mid to upper level low pressure system over northwest
Mississippi this morning will continue to lift across the
Tennessee Valley today before consolidating with another upper low
over the Great Lakes region tonight. This upper low and associated
troughing will keep cloudy conditions along with isolated showers
over the forecast area today. A deepening surface low stacked
beneath the mid/upper level low pressure system will keep a tight
pressure gradient in place across the region as well.
Southwesterly winds early this morning will gradually shift to
northwesterly by this afternoon and increase in intensity. Windy
conditions can be expected with sustained winds between 20 and 25
mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. This gusts will remain just
below our wind advisory criteria, but regardless it will be a
windy and cool day. The cloud cover along with the northwest wind
shift should help to limit much in the way of heating today with
afternoon highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clouds will
gradually break up late this afternoon or early evening with clear
skies expected overnight. Winds will also diminish this evening
allowing for a relatively chilly night. Low temperatures will drop
into the middle 40s over interior locations to the lower and
middle 50s along the coast.

High pressure builds into the area on Friday providing for sunny
skies and seasonably warm temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.

Coastal hazards with high surf and life threatening rip currents
will continue into the day Friday. /JLH

SHORT AND EXTENDED TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Upper level ridging builds over the forecast area for the weekend
through the middle of next week as surface high pressure slides
east to a position of the Southeast U.S. coast by the end of the
weekend. A noticeable warm up is expected with a prolonged period
of dry weather. Temperatures rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s
on Saturday, warming into the lower to middle 80s for Sunday
through the middle of next week. Low temperatures will start off
cool in the lower to middle 50s, except upper 50s near the coast,
for the weekend and then rise into the lower to middle 60s for the
first part of next week as southerly low level flow returns and
humidity gradually increases. The next chances for any
precipitation should hold off until at least the end of next week.
/JLH

MARINE...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

In the wake of the storm system yesterday strong southwesterly flow
early this morning shifts westerly by late morning, ultimately
becoming offshore by late this afternoon into tonight. Expect winds
to frequently gust to near gale force through the rest of today
across the gulf waters, with slightly lower gusts across our bays
and sounds. After sunset tonight, winds quickly drop off with the
Gale Warning expiring around sunset tonight and the Small Craft
Advisory expiring by 1am tonight. Seas and winds will relax as we
head into Friday and the upcoming weekend as light offshore flow
remains over the area and high pressure moves overhead. A return to
light to moderate onshore flow can be expected by late Sunday into
the beginning of next week. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  49  76  49  80  54  80  58 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   72  54  75  53  77  56  77  61 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      75  57  75  56  76  59  76  63 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   69  48  75  44  81  50  84  52 /  20  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  71  46  75  46  82  50  83  54 /  20   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      67  46  72  44  79  50  83  52 /  20  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   73  48  76  46  81  50  82  53 /  10  10   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Friday
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Surf Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Friday
     for FLZ202.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Friday
     for FLZ204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Friday
     for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

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