067
AWUS01 KWNH 020529
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-021127-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0207
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
128 AM EDT Thu May 02 2024

Areas affected...southern Oklahoma through central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020527Z - 021127Z

Summary...An elongated mesoscale convective complex will continue
to move eastward across the discussion area through 11Z.  Flash
flooding is possible in sensitive/low-lying areas.

Discussion...Convection initially along a dryline in the Texas
South Plains/Panhandle has grown into a linear convective complex
over the past few hours.  That complex extends along a line from
near Lawton, Oklahoma southward through Junction, Texas currently.
 Rain rates were being held in check in most areas due to the
forward-propagating nature of the line, although immediate
development along and ahead of the line was causing areas of
prolonged heavy rain rates into the 1.5-2 inch/hr range -
particularly near/north of Lawton and near Breckenridge, TX.
These trends are expected to continue for another 3-5 hours while
the MCS treks eastward, eventually crossing the I-35 corridor
through 07-08Z and reaching the US-75 corridor in the 0730-09Z
timeframe.

Ground conditions suggest that flash flood potential should remain
fairly isolated through 11Z.  FFGs are in the 2-3 inch/hr
threshold in Texas, suggesting that any flash flood risk should
remain isolated and tied to locations that can experience
prolonged heavier rain rates.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma are
more susceptible to flash flooding given recent very heavy
rainfall in that area and lowered FFGs (around the 1-2 inch/hr
range - locally lower).  Thus, the flash flood risk is higher
north of the Red River.  Areas of 1-3 inch rainfall totals are
expected through 11Z this morning.  Models also suggest potential
for this MCS to weaken with time especially after 09Z and in areas
that have already been convectively overturned (i.e., central
Texas) or have weaker surface-based instability (i.e., eastern
Oklahoma).

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35679716 35389553 33979513 32559509 31339624
            30979825 31259929 32549944 33669935 35459918