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000
FXUS63 KMQT 110900
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
500 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Deepening low pressure will move farther into the Great Lakes
  region, bringing showers to much of the area today into
  Friday.
- Gusty north to northwest winds to possibly 45 mph are expected late
  tonight through Friday, mainly over the eastern U.P. with
  high end gales developing over eastern Lake Superior.
- Periodic showers into next week, including Saturday night into early
  Sunday, and then also next Tuesday through next Thursday as
  another strong low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes
  region.
- Temperatures on most days will remain above normal through the
 first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 458 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The potent low pressure system that will be responsible for some of
Upper Michigan`s rainfall today can currently be seen spinning over
the Tennessee Valley on latest water vapor imagery.  Meanwhile, a
shortwave and associated surface trough in Ontario are tracking
eastward already generating light rain showers across western Upper
Michigan. Through the course of the morning, rain showers will
expand from west to east across the forecast area, but much of
the eastern third of the forecast area will remain dry until
early this afternoon. At that point, the two disturbances will
merge early, and rain showers will also expand into the eastern
third of the UP in an area of convergence. For now, will
generally trend toward rain showers over much of the area, but a
few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially over
Iron/Dickinson where there will be a higher concentration of
instability. Highs in the upper 50s/low 60s today will help a
bit with destabilization.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 433 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

We have a pretty active weather pattern in store for the long term.
Rain chances continue across the U.P. (mainly the east) tonight
before ending from west to east across the area Friday as the low
lifts from the Great Lakes region into Ontario. In addition to the
rainfall, some gusty north to north-northwesterly winds are
expected across the eastern U.P., with gusts possibly getting to as
high as 45 mph; we even have the potential to see some gusts get up
to 50+ mph near the eastern lakeshores. Another Clipper low brings
scattered rain showers back across the area Saturday night into
Sunday morning, and a troughing pattern that sets up over the
Central CONUS brings rainfall across the U.P. from the middle to end
of next week.

As a strengthening low pressure lifts from the Detroit area to
eastern Lake Huron tonight, rain showers continue to build into the
eastern half of the U.P.. In addition, some upslope showers look to
develop over the north central U.P., bringing some light rainfall to
this area as well. However, with the model guidance continuing to
nudge the track of the low further east, rain showers and amounts in
the west will be scattered and fairly light, with no more than a
tenth of an inch of liquid being seen. While the central could see
up to a quarter up an inch, particularly over the north central
where northerly upslope flow may help squeeze out an extra tenth or
so, the east is still looking to get at least a half inch; the far
east near Newberry could still see up to an inch of rainfall before
the event is all said and done. Therefore, while this won`t be a
soaking rainfall event for most of the U.P., the far east could see
enough rainfall to qualify as a soaking rainfall event. Should the
low continue to trend further eastwards though, the chances of a
soaking rainfall across the far eastern U.P. will continue to
diminish. In addition to the rainfall, some gusty north-northwest
winds will be seen across the eastern half of the U.P. late tonight
through Friday. Winds have the potential to gust up to as high as 45
mph over the land, and possibly a few 50+ mph gusts could be seen
near the Lake Superior shoreline over Luce and eastern Alger
counties. Therefore, while confidence is too low as of now (50 to
60% chance of this occurring) for the winds to be that high, we may
need to hoist up a Wind Advisory for Luce and maybe Alger counties
in the subsequent forecast packages for Friday. Regardless of the
exact wind speeds, expect a few downed tree branches and maybe a
downed powerline or two. One final note: while we could see a mix
over/change to snow over the far east and higher terrain of the
interior west tonight into Friday, no accumulation is expected as
the surface will be too warm.

After the low lifts away Friday night into Canada, expect dry
weather for Friday night and mostly clear skies. With the lack of
cloud cover overhead, we could see low temps drop down to the low to
mid 30s across the area. Moving into Saturday, with weak ridging
degrading over us, we could see some fairly dry conditions across
the interior west and south central, similar to what we saw
yesterday; min RHs in the 20 percents are possible, with highs in
the interior areas getting into the low to mid 60s. While the winds
are looking to be weak from the northwest Saturday, this may create
some limited fire weather concerns across the interior west and
south central. We also have a Clipper low digging through the Upper
Midwest by the afternoon hours. While we do have some isentropic
lift moving across the area during the afternoon, with the model
guidance consensus keeping precip out of our area until Saturday
night, decided to keep the NBM in and let the quick-hitting rainfall
move over us Saturday night. While we`re expected fairly scattered
rain showers to impact the area Saturday night, many of the showers
look to develop along the areas where isentropic lift is maximized.
Thus, while most spots should see only light rainfall from this
event (around a tenth of inch or less), we could see localized spots
that see several tenths of an inch more, provided isentropic lifts
settles over these areas. In addition, we may here a rumble of
thunder or two near the Wisconsin border Saturday night as a few
hundred J/kg aloft could make as far north as the U.P./Wisconsin
border. However, with most of the model guidance keeping the
elevated CAPE further south, the chance for elevated thunderstorms
is slim (15 to 25% chance). The Clipper low gets out of the area
come Sunday morning as it continues east into Lower Michigan. While
we have weak ridging back over the area Sunday into Monday,
conditions should be a little more moist as Gulf air slowly advects
in from the southwest.

We look to end the extended period with a troughing pattern over the
Central CONUS bringing two low pressure systems through or near the
region. Thus, we can expect to see extended rain shower chances
across the U.P. from next Tuesday all the way through next Thursday.
This rainfall event should impact the entire U.P.; hopefully, it
will be a soaking rainfall event for our area in order to relieve
the drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions through Thursday morning will begin to deteriorate
late afternoon/evening in the wake of a cold frontal passage. MVFR
cigs could move in at IWD behind the cold front late afternoon. Cigs
will quickly trend toward MVFR Thursday evening as some light rain
showers move in over the terminals. Even IFR conditions may be
possible at IWD and SAW late in the period (toward 06Z Fri).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 447 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue through today as weak high
pressure ridging degrades overtop the area in lieu of a
strengthening and approaching low pressure currently over the
Southeastern U.S.. As this low lifts into the Great Lakes region
tonight, north to north-northwesterly gales up to 45 knots will be
seen across the eastern half of the lake from late tonight through
Friday; it`s possible (40 to 50% chance) that we could see a few
storm force gusts up to 50 knots, especially near Whitefish Point
where funneling effects will be strongest. As the low continues
lifting into Canada Friday night, expect the winds to die down,
eventually becoming northwest winds to 20 to 30 knots over the
eastern half of the lake by Saturday morning and winds of 20 knots
or less by late Saturday afternoon. The light winds look to continue
across Lake Superior until around next Monday, when an approaching
low pressure system looks to increase winds from the east; we could
(50% chance) see easterly gales return across the lake by Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 2 PM EDT /1
    PM CDT/ Friday for LSZ240.

  Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 11 PM EDT /10
    PM CDT/ Friday for LSZ241-242.

  Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 5 AM EDT Friday for
     LSZ243>245.

  Gale Warning from 5 AM to noon EDT Friday for LSZ243.

  Gale Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for LSZ244-264.

  Gale Warning from 5 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for LSZ245-248-265.

  Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ246-
     247.

  Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Friday for LSZ248>251.

  Gale Warning from 5 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ249-
     250-266.

  Gale Warning from 5 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ251-
     267.

Lake Michigan...
  Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ221-
     248-250.

  Gale Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP