314
FNUS73 KMQT 140940
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Lake Mary RX...MDNR
National Weather Service Marquette MI
540 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Sunny skies and quiet conditions dominate with light northeast winds
generally below 10mph. As mixing deepens during the afternoon and we
tap into drier air aloft, expect RH to fall below 30% while
temperatures climb into the lower and possibly mid 60s. However, the
mitigating factor for fire spread will be wind speeds remaining
rather light. RH quickly recovers into the evening hours while
temperatures drop into the 30s, then with another dry and sunny day
Wednesday, expect RH to once again fall back to around or just below
30% during the afternoon with highs in the upper 60s. Winds remain
calm, generally out of the east.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 64.
RH..................Min 26 percent.
Dewpoint............31 decreasing to 28 late in the afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Northeast winds 7 to 9 mph.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......1700-3400 ft AGL increasing to 4200-5300 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (219.0-479.0).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......24.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........16  16  16  16  17  18  17  17  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............43  48  53  57  60  62  63  63  63
Dewpoint........33  33  33  32  32  31  30  29  28
RH..............68  55  46  39  34  31  29  27  26
33 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
33 ft wind spd..8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7
Wind gust.......11  11  11  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.6 3.4 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.1
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
VIndx kt-ft/100.22  31  38  46  47  46  48  48  46
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  24  24  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 33.
RH..................Max 82 percent.
Dewpoint............29.
33-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds up to 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......3500-4800 ft AGL decreasing to 0-300 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (0.0-431.0).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......24.

TIME (CDT)      5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM
Sky (%).........16  19  17  16  16  19  20  19  18  17  17  17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  61  57  53  48  43  40  38  37  35  34  34
Dewpoint........28  28  29  30  30  31  29  28  28  28  28  28
RH..............27  29  34  41  50  61  64  67  70  73  77  80
33 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
33 ft wind spd..8   8   8   6   6   6   3   3   3   2   2   2
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   5   2   2   2   2   2   2
Wind gust.......10  10  10  7   7   7   4   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...4.8 4.2 3.5 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VIndx kt-ft/100.43  38  32  21  12  3   0   1   3   3   3   3
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  24

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 28 percent.
Dewpoint............31 increasing to 36 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east up to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1300 ft AGL increasing to 4900-6200 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (0.0-444.0).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......24 early in the morning.

TIME (CDT)      5 AM   7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM
Sky (%).........20     10     17     27     38     63
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............34     40     53     62     67     68
Dewpoint........29     31     35     37     36     35
RH..............82     69     50     39     31     29
33 ft wind......NE 3   NE 3   E 7    E 7    E 7    E 7
20 ft wind......NE 2   NE 2   E 6    E 6    E 6    E 6
Wind gust.......5      5      10     8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 300    2700   4900   6000   6200
Haines index....4      4      5      5      5      4
VIndx kt-ft/100.1      3      30     44     36     31
Ceiling (kft)...24     24

$$
Forecaster...LC
Requested by...Brian Mensch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413952.0/MQT
.DELDT 05/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL menschb@michigan.gov