Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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526 FXUS66 KMTR 042117 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 217 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024 Rainfall ending this afternoon from north to south. Some clearing this afternoon with light isolated showers tonight. Mostly clear Sunday with a warming trend on track for the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024 Rain unfolding as expected as of midday with the heaviest having pushed through with the initial cold front this morning. Areas from the Bay Area southward will continue to see light-to-moderate rain into the this afternoon, but as of writing, observed amounts are generally 0.6-1.5" with the highest amounts being in the coastal ranges. Clearing will occur rather abruptly through this afternoon and evening from north to south with visible satellite showing a sharp cutoff in overcast cloud cover on the back side of the front. We can expect some degree of isolated showers behind the front tonight, but instability appears lacking overall which would hinder the coverage and intensity of any post-frontal showers a bit. No lightning strikes thus far neither, given the fairly suppressed nature of the post-frontal convection. Can`t rule out a strike or two as we go into tonight, but it`s a very small chance. Sunday looks to be clear and pleasant, despite chilly temps with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024 The next week is on track to be clear and dry with temps steadily increasing each day into late week. Ridging dominates as we settle into a more seasonal pattern. By Friday, expect temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal...mid-to-upper 80s for inland valleys, upper 70s to lower 80s elsewhere, and upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. Friday may be a potential day to highlight an elevated risk of heat-related illness for sensitive groups in urban areas of the South Bay and interior East Bay valleys. Stay tuned to the forecast as this will likely be, yet again, among the warmest temps some have seen this year so far. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 AM PDT Sat May 4 2024 Widespread rain continues into the afternoon before the main rain band moves south and east. Expect winds to turn to W/NW and staying breezy behind the band as lingering showers move across the region. CIGs lift and become VFR behind the main rain band. Expect moderate to breezy winds to last through the night and into Sunday. Vicinity of SFO...Rain and MVFR visibilities and CIGs last into the afternoon with breezy westerly winds. VFR returns in the late afternoon as the rain band exits, but showers linger and winds stay breezy through the night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR CIGs with gusty westerly winds are building along the rain band. VFR returns behind the main rain band in the late afternoon but the breezy winds last into the late night. Shower chances linger behind the rain band and these chances last into Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 838 AM PDT Sat May 4 2024 Widespread rain and fresh southwesterly breezes are affecting the waters. Fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail behind main rain band with scattered rain showers possible into the evening. Dry conditions return and winds reduce into Sunday. Gusty winds build into the middle of the next work week and last into the late week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea