Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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753 FXUS63 KOAX 282326 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 626 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather is expected Monday, letting the area catch its collective breath. - Showers and storms return Tuesday, with a 5 to 15% chance that those storms will be severe. - Storms redevelop Wednesday, and prolonged rainfall could lead to flooding along with a few severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show the deep, mature mid-latitude system as it still spins over the Central and Norther Plains, with divergent flow in the mid-levels to its west with several shortwaves embedded in the flow. At the surface, surface low was noted just to the west of Fremont and a cold front extending southward, with an overall weak pressure gradient surrounding the low despite it`s mature stage. Extending to the northeast then east is a warm front that had most of it`s character sapped by morning convection that has overall put a damper on any storm potential. Nonetheless, a meager amount of instability continues to advect with the surface low and cold front to sustain weak convection with occasional gusts over 30 mph and quick downpours while mist and dreary conditions are left in northeast Nebraska behind the it. Expect this band of weak convection to continue moving east-northeast with a more restricted area of drizzle being left behind directly to the west of the surface low and following it northeast into the evening hours. Winds have swung westerly to northwesterly behind the cold front, with some gusts to 25 mph in northeast Nebraska with temperatures anticipated to reach their peak within the next few hours before they trend back down to lows in the lower 40s tonight. Monday and Beyond: As today`s system continues to move to the east, quick-moving zonal flow is left behind and we get a breather for Monday with dry conditions expected. Highs will reach into the upper 60s to low 70s with northwesterly winds turning southerly during the evening hours. A compact shortwave is expected to zip through the zonal flow Tuesday with a warm front bisecting the region. Hodographs in the vicinity of the warm front continue to have plenty of curvature in the low levels with sufficient shear and instability to warrant another afternoon/evening of severe potential with hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all being a concern. There continues to be some timing differences between the global solutions, but the speed of the system moving into the area will shift the main risk area to the west or east (as it sits right now, the entirety of the area has severe potential). Along with the storm chances will be very gusty winds as the surface system quickly deepens, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected. By midnight, most of the activity is expected to be east of the forecast area, with a stationary front to the south. Into Wednesday, showers and storms are once again expected with residual fronts in the area helping to focus potentially prolonged areas of rainfall and could result in flooding and some severe weather. Thursday and Friday will see decreasing rain chances with only the leftovers of the Wednesday/Wednesday night system lingering. Cooler highs in the low 60s are on tap for Friday with a gradual warmup into the weekend with the active patter precipitation wise likely to continue. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 IFR conditions are being reported at OFK and the northern tier of counties in the CWA. That is expected to continue through the night before becoming MVFR around 9am and cleared skies by noon. Expect OMA to spend most of the night under MVFR cigs with improvement expected mid-day Monday. Have kept LNK VFR through it all, but we`ll see where the ceilings end up by midnight as LNK will be close to the southern edge of the low clouds. Expect westerly winds of about 11 knots to continue tonight and through the TAF period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Nicolaisen