Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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990 FXUS64 KOUN 061729 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1229 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Added a small area of dense fog across our far southeast CWA within an already existing area of fog extending generally east of I-35. Visibility`s reduced between 1/2 to 1/4 of a mile in the dense fog area. Can`t rule out a potential advisory for dense fog by mid-morning but will hold off for now and continue monitoring the trend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Storms will be out of our area before sunrise Tuesday morning, with mostly sunny skies expected through the day with highs in the low 80s. Models show another shortwave moving into the plains on Wednesday as moisture attempts to move back northward into our southeast counties. As of now the flow is expected to veer across much of our area through the day Wednesday, which should push the better moisture eastward and confine any thunderstorm chances to our eastern/southeastern counties. Instability and shear will support severe weather with these storms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threat. After Wednesday the synoptic pattern appears to transition to one much less favorable for severe weather, with high pressure to our north confining the deeper moisture well to our south into the weekend. This should finally give our area a bit of a break, although we will not completely dry out as rain chances (non-severe) return to the area Saturday into Sunday. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Significant-severe thunderstorms are expected to affect the majority of the terminals this afternoon and evening, including Will Rogers World Airport. All hazards will be possible, including: strong tornadoes, very large hail greater than two inches in diameter surface-to-aloft, and variable wind gusts of 65 kt or greater for KOKC, KOUN, and terminals into western and northern Oklahoma. TEMPO groups were assigned to reflect the best timing of significant gusts (>=65 kt) associated with the severe thunderstorms. Extreme turbulence can be expected with convection this afternoon and tonight with cumulonimbi tops near 50 kft. The potential for thunderstorms will diminish from west-to-east later tonight, with most terminals returning to VFR and breezy winds following the passage of a Pacific cold front. Until then, CIGs will vary from IFR to MVFR with strong, southerly winds ahead of the incoming severe storm potential this afternoon and tonight. Sincavage/WFO Lubbock && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Hobart OK MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Wichita Falls TX MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Gage OK MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Ponca City OK MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Durant OK MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...09