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000
FXUS63 KPAH 111730
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
  through this afternoon. Brief localized heavy rainfall is
  possible through midday, and some minor flooding or a strong
  storm cannot be ruled out completely.

- Strong northwest winds with gusts of 30 to possibly around 40
  mph at times may develop today, and it will be breezy on
  Friday.

- South to southwest breezes will bring dry conditions and well
  above normal temperatures for the weekend.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Monday afternoon
  and continue through next Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A frontal boundary is set up along the Mississippi/Ohio/Wabash
Rivers with one of the low pressure areas focused over the Quad
State region. Decoupling overnight has kept the ESE to SSE winds
fairly light in the east, while northerlies in the west are up
to around 10 kts, which is also well below model projections.
The main rainmaking band from the evening is north of the
forecast area, but moisture continues to stream in with
widespread showers and a few isolated lightning flashes. More
organized thunderstorm development has not materialized and
strong storms are unlikely through the early morning hours.
Winds should continue to be well skewed to the low end of the
HREF spread through early morning. Rainfall has become lighter
relative to the evening hours so flooding potential is fairly
low.

Once daytime heating begins, the boundary layer should mix out
fairly quickly, prompting significant increases in wind speeds
and gusts as the low pressure quickly deepens. Models continue
to point to Southeast Missouri as the most favorable location
for wind gusts reaching 40 mph, and many HREF members show that
with 80% of members > 40 mph (although, this is slightly lower
than the previous model cycle). The timing isn`t ideal, with the
gustiest winds in SEMO projected to be mid-morning. The models
are likely overestimating winds. The SPS has been expanded over
the entire forecast area, with 35-40 mph gusts in SEMO and 30-35
mph gusts in the east with timing staggered from west to east.
The morning strengthening of winds will be monitored for
potential need for a wind advisory. A little more lightning
development is possible with surface heating though flooding and
strong storm potential decreases in the afternoon as the system
begins exiting the area.

Lingering light precipitation chances Friday just northeast of
the forecast area might suggest possible slight chance PoP
inclusion but no rain impacts are expected. Breezy winds Friday
will remain with gusts of 25-35 mph. Continued WNW winds keeps
highs in the 60s for the end of the week with lows in the 40s.
Dry conditions continue through the weekend with ridging moving
through and high pressure across the Deep South. A switchover to
SSW flow lifts highs to the 70s Saturday and near 80 on Sunday.

Ensembles agree generally on low pressure developing east of the
Rockies early next week, lifting northeastward to the Upper
Midwest. While the SPC Day 6 enhanced outlook in Oklahoma draws
attention, the variation among ensemble members for positioning
of the track keeps conditions somewhat uncertain locally. The
NBM was notably very strong with regards to Tuesday winds,
which were shifted lower by blending in the NBMEXP in
collaboration with neighbors. Chance PoPs are included Monday
evening through Wednesday as a result of that primary system and
a potential second one developing midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Lingering MVFR cigs will gradually exit our eastern terminals
this afternoon. SHRA activity will continue to wane, but another
wave may impact northeast terminals into the evening. Yet
another batch may impact KEVV/KOWB tomorrow morning, accompanied
by some low VFR cigs. Some guidance suggests a return of MVFR
cigs tomorrow morning in our northeast, but the probability of
this is much greater just to the northeast of our area. Gusty W/NW
winds will continue this afternoon and pick up again tomorrow
morning. In-between, a stable layer may develop later this
evening and overnight, leading to a LLWS concern.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SP