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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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000 FXUS04 KWBC 181834 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 233 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 19/0000 UTC THRU JUN 20/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...PAC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES... MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SGFNT UPPER LO INTO THE PAC NW BY MID PD..WITH CONCURRENT SFC CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES. THE RESULTING INTENSE MID LVL COOLING AND STGLY DIV FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A LONG DURATION HVY RNFL EVENT INVOF THE NRN ROCKIES AND MODEL QPFS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO. BLENDED A COMBO OF TDAS GFS/UKMET/18/00Z ECMWF FOR THE FCST GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN THEIR GUIDANCE THERE. MEANWHILE THE VRY CD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LLVL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO CONTG SHWRS OVR THE PAC NW WITH AMTS MAXIMIZING INVOF SWRN OR. ...SRN NEW ENG SWD ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST AND THEN WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST... SHRTWV ENERGY EMBEDDED IN A BROAD UPPER TROF WORKING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION IN COMBO WITH ITS ASOCTD FRONTAL ZONE OR PRE-FRONTAL TROFS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHWRS ACROSS THIS RATHER LARGE AREA. MODEL QPFS IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH MAXIMIZING TOTALS OVR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AREA WHICH APPEARS A GOOD FIT TO BOTH THE PSN OF THE CDFNT AND FVBL RT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE THERE. WHILE THE MODEL QPFS ARE NOT IN EXACT AGREEMENT..THE NON NCEP MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO EMPHASIZE AREAS INVOF THE FL PNHNDL AS WELL AS SERN TX/SWRN FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHWR ACTVTY AS THE LLVL BNDRY HANGS UP INVOF THE GULF COAST. ...NRN TO SRN PLAINS... THERE IS NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT BTWN MODEL QPFS HERE AS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVG THRU THE CNTRL U.S. RIDGE TAP A SLY LLVL MSTR RETURN TO INITIATE AREAS OF SHWRS. HOWEVER...TO WHAT EXTENT THESE IMPULSES CAN OVER COME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS ALOFT TO INITIATE ACTVTY IS SPECULATIVE. MORE OR LESS BROAD BRUSHED LGT PCPN TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA CONCENTRATING THE HEAVIEST TOTALS INVOF THE CO/KS/OK BORDER AREA WHERE AN APCHG WEAK IMPULSE AND LEFT FRONT REGION JET DYNAMICS COULD ENHANCE SHWR DVLPMNT LATER THIS EVNG AND TNGT. KORTY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 20/00Z 0.01 541202 540199 540194 541181 543172 544156 540139 539132 538128 537122 534117 528104 519089 517086 514084 510078 508075 504074 497070 492067 485066 475066 470071 468072 465078 463080 462086 460093 458101 458106 459109 457114 447127 442132 436135 433143 431152 429154 426152 425147 425142 425136 428131 429128 431124 435120 439117 440117 444113 444109 438108 429115 422130 414157 413172 412178 415186 413193 411199 408200 403202 395202 392202 393206 394210 400213 402216 405218 410223 411228 408232 402235 399242 399246 401248 405253 409258 411262 415264 422267 425265 429265 435263 439260 449252 456249 463248 469248 474249 478250 485254 488261 493272 501282 507285 510281 520274 526257 526252 525247 525246 525242 525237 527234 528233 530231 532229 534227 0.01 444633 433628 429627 423628 415634 411639 408645 404649 400656 394668 387682 383689 379695 371701 368700 364703 358707 353712 346723 338736 330750 327755 324761 320772 317779 315786 312793 309796 304798 290804 279802 268795 263793 255795 250796 246800 244805 243811 243815 248820 249827 250831 254833 264833 276832 284832 288833 289837 290847 289849 289854 294870 294879 294887 292903 291919 290931 287944 283958 283967 285970 288972 292970 297966 301961 307955 309954 313954 317957 322962 326968 329973 330975 334974 338970 339963 337953 333946 325934 324932 325929 326922 324904 325897 324888 325884 324878 325874 327871 333860 337849 341833 344827 348825 351826 355823 359816 362810 364801 366799 368802 367807 368810 371809 375803 377799 379798 382791 383789 386790 386795 385798 386802 385818 382837 380845 378851 377859 374865 372873 372878 371884 372891 374898 381888 382881 384876 386872 389869 392869 395870 399875 402878 402875 403866 402856 403848 401837 404818 405813 405808 406804 412774 414768 413762 414759 417749 420741 427728 432710 435695 438677 440666 440661 440654 443648 444642 444633 0.01 507929 505915 503906 499898 494899 490901 485908 482913 478922 478926 479932 481934 483940 485942 487948 491953 494956 497956 500954 502950 505943 505936 506930 507929 0.01 462958 461950 458946 452948 447952 432955 425955 420953 402940 394933 388935 386939 388956 390961 393968 395972 396977 392984 389989 386992 371979 367980 363985 358984 353985 350990 349994 349999 346002 342002 339001 330001 324005 322009 334025 336028 335031 332035 328040 330046 337052 344051 349048 353046 359048 363051 369051 382052 389052 395054 408051 415051 418054 426062 430065 438068 442071 445073 448074 455073 458068 459064 457058 456051 456035 454028 453018 451998 451991 453986 455981 456975 460966 462958 0.25 535191 536182 536177 534168 532161 526151 521140 518131 514115 511105 508100 503095 498096 494099 491106 489112 486118 484121 478123 474124 471127 469135 466136 460136 455138 452142 445148 442150 440157 445167 448178 445185 446191 451193 459189 466183 469180 473178 478181 482185 485188 487194 487201 484205 482209 482213 491220 498231 502242 506251 508255 511256 509252 509250 510248 512251 512255 512251 511246 513242 514233 513228 507216 505211 505205 508204 513207 515211 517215 521218 525217 529213 532207 533198 535191 0.25 406709 405704 403703 395704 390707 381712 370721 357733 347744 342749 339757 328781 316807 311818 305830 299841 297847 297856 300876 301891 300905 299920 296933 291948 291954 296956 302953 307948 313943 315937 313918 313903 313896 315887 316880 315869 315854 314848 312839 313823 318818 319817 322821 327825 331823 336819 340814 345808 349801 354795 357789 361783 363775 367764 371758 378757 382755 386752 392746 398733 401728 404724 405721 406712 406709 0.25 455227 456221 455217 446213 442211 438212 432213 427219 426224 426229 425234 419238 418241 418244 421248 426249 432248 439247 444244 448242 451238 453229 455227 0.25 417975 417971 416971 414972 416975 417975 417975 0.25 395035 396031 395027 393024 389013 384006 376000 372998 367998 363001 361005 359010 358016 361019 365022 371026 374029 380032 389034 395035 0.25 280816 278815 276815 274814 272816 272818 273819 276819 278818 280816 0.50 530184 532179 531173 528164 524157 520151 516146 512139 507123 503117 499117 498119 493127 487129 482131 479133 477136 477138 481141 482145 480148 467143 461144 456148 452153 450156 449160 451168 453171 456168 460164 461165 463169 463172 461174 456178 455181 457184 462183 464181 469175 475172 480177 486183 491187 493196 496198 500197 502195 506194 513199 519201 522201 526196 530184 0.50 440235 440233 440231 440227 439225 437226 435228 435229 434233 434235 434237 436239 439239 440236 440235 0.50 387726 385724 381725 375729 371733 366736 361742 357745 353749 348756 340769 336777 334786 332793 331802 337805 341801 343798 348783 351777 355778 358777 359773 366758 369752 376744 380738 386730 387726 0.50 312868 312861 311854 309848 306843 303847 301851 301858 301861 302868 303874 306880 308882 310886 313884 313878 312871 312868 0.50 311938 310932 308925 307919 305914 303919 302924 301927 299932 298937 297941 296944 295951 299951 302949 306946 309942 311938 1.00 524173 517157 513154 509152 507155 514166 513168 510166 505160 491158 486156 482156 475155 470153 467153 467155 468162 481169 489177 496180 498181 500184 503186 507186 513185 517179 518177 521176 524173 1.50 500173 501168 499166 496166 493166 490165 488166 488170 489171 492174 495174 498173 500173 $$
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