000
FXUS61 KPHI 261351
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
951 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore today. A warm front attached to
low pressure over the Great Lakes moves by Saturday. Highs
pressure returns for Sunday and into next week. Another low and
front arrives for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM...Temperatures are warming well above freezing so the
frost and freeze headlines have been allowed to expire.
Otherwise, it will be a dry and mostly sunny day as high
pressure centered over New England this morning very slowly
drifts eastward through the day. The sun should allow rapid
warming but the light southeasterly to easterly flow on the
south side of the high will limit the climb in temps especially
close to the ocean. Overall expect highs in the 60s inland to
50s near the coast.

Tonight should stay mostly clear, but the easterly flow likely
moistens up the low levels just enough that, when combined with some
approaching high clouds ahead of a warm front and the warmer start
plus warm advection aloft, should limit the drop. Might need some
frost headlines but think another widespread freeze is off the
table... possibly for the rest of the season? We`ll see, but either
way, milder than tonight. Lows mostly 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A transition to early summer readings Saturday and Sunday. An
upper ridge will build across the area thru the period and as
this happens, low pressure moves by to the north, bringing a
warm front thru on Saturday. There will be plenty of clouds
along the frontal boundary, increasing through the day and into
the overnight period. The high elevations of the Poconos and NW
New Jersey could see an isolated light shower during the day,
but the best chance for showers (20-30%) will be along the I-78
corridor and points north.

Mild and dry weather will be around for Sunday. Following the
warm front, a deep southerly flow will arrive over the area, so
increasing warmth and humidity is expected. Highs Sunday will be
in the upper 70s/low 80s in most spots, but cooler near the
shore and up across the Poconos. A mild night expected as well
with lows only reaching the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Very warm temperatures for late spring will remain in place as
the upper ridge starts out across the eastern US to start off
the work week. High temperatures will likely be the warmest thus
far this season with much of the region reaching the low to mid
80s! Gradually, this ridge weakens and allows more scattered
shortwave energy to arrive across the area. For Tuesday and into
Wednesday, a cold front will approach the area and then wash
out as it moves through. Some scattered showers and
thunderstorms will certainly be possible, mainly Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night, but overall probabilities remain
around the 25-45% range.

Another system will approach the region Thursday, though there
remains quite a bit of model spread in timing and evolution.
Sticking close to our consensus blend, leaving a 20-30% chance
for showers.

Temperatures remain above average in the mid 70s to low 80s
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through today...VFR. East to southeast winds increasing to near
5-10 kts. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. East to southeast winds dropping to 5 kts or
less. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...VFR prevail. A few moments of sub-VFR
conditions possible Saturday night as a warm front pushes
through with scattered showers. Otherwise, a dry forecast.

Tuesday...VFR to start with sub-VFR conditions potentially
arriving in the afternoon and evening with the arrival of a weak cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas are diminishing and should be in the 2-4 foot range through
tonight with an east to southeast wind around 10 kts with gusts
up to 15 kts. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday... Winds and seas will remain below
SCA criteria through the period. Fair weather expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will be in the 25-30% range today. However, with
winds so low, around 10 MPH or less, the threat for the rapid
spread of wildfire remains low. The morning shift will take
another look and coordinate with partners to see if any
statements are needed.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record low was tied at Trenton this morning. Elsewhere,
temperatures remained above the records as of just before 7AM.

ABE/Allentown              30 in 2001/1967/1934
ACY/Atlantic City Airport  28 in 1967
55N/Atlantic City Marina   34 in 1883
GED/Georgetown             30 in 1964
MPO/Mount Pocono           18 in 1919
PHL/Philadelphia           35 in 1967/1919
RDG/Reading                27 in 1972
TTN/Trenton                33 in 1919
ILG/Wilmington             32 in 1919

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OHara/RCM
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/RCM
SHORT TERM...MJL/OHara
LONG TERM...MJL/OHara
AVIATION...MJL/RCM
MARINE...MJL/RCM
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...