Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
814 FXUS65 KPSR 271759 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1059 AM MST Sat Apr 27 2024 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... A departing weather system will result in residual breeziness and some showers across the higher terrain areas of eastern AZ today. Thereafter, as high pressure settles over the region, a benign weather pattern with a warming trend will ensue with temperatures warming into the nineties across the lower deserts next week. && .DISCUSSION... Latest water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows a large upper-level low spinning near the Four Corners Region. This low pressure system will continue to gradually lift east- northeastward into the central Rockies throughout the day. Enough of a pressure gradient will still be in place for some residual breeziness to materialize this afternoon through early this evening across the region, with peak gusts ranging between 20-30 mph. In addition, energy rotating on the back side of the low will spark some convective shower activity this afternoon across the AZ High Country, with some of the activity making its way into southern Gila County. These showers for the most part are expected to rather unimpactful with very light accumulations expected, if any. Otherwise, with the negative height anomalies persisting across the region, temperatures once again will remain below normal with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s across the lower deserts. Once the troughing feature quickly lifts northward into the central and northern Plains on Sunday, high pressure will begin to settle across the region with upper-level height fields on the rise. As a result, temperatures will be on a warming trend with highs expected to rise back up to near normal levels with readings in the upper 80s across most of the lower desert communities. Heading into next week, a more quasi-zonal flow will be in place across the region as a series of shortwave troughs moving through the northwest CONUS will limit any sort of ridge amplification across the Desert Southwest. With 500 mb height fields rising into the 576-578dm range early next week, temperatures will continue to warm even further into the low 90s on Monday and then into the mid 90s on Tuesday across the lower deserts. With not much change in the height fields through the rest of next week due to the quasi-zonal flow in place, little change in temperatures is expected during the mid to late week time frame. With the majority of the shortwave energy remaining well north of the region, a mostly benign weather pattern will be in place through all of next week with dry conditions and winds remaining on the lighter side with just the typical afternoon breeziness. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1758Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF period. Westerly winds will become increasingly breezy going through afternoon with gusts to 20 kts. Gusts subside during the evening hours with more typical diurnal tendencies returning overnight. Rain chances today will remain across the northern high terrain while dry conditions prevail across the Valley. FEW-SCT clouds around 9-10 kft will continue through the evening. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds at both TAF sites will favor a W to WNW component through the period with a few afternoon/evening gusts to around 15-20 kts. Mostly clear skies will continue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Residual breeziness from a departing weather system can be expected for today with afternoon and early evening gusts ranging between 20-30 mph. Some showers may affect the far eastern districts later today. MinRHs will range between 15-20% across the lower deserts to 30-40% across the far eastern districts. A significant warming trend takes place Sunday through early next week with little change in temperatures expected by the middle to latter of next week. With the warming temperatures, RH values will trend downward through next week with MinRHs generally ranging between 10-15%. Winds beginning Sunday and continuing through most of next week will generally be on the lighter side with the typical afternoon upslope breeziness expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lojero AVIATION...Smith FIRE WEATHER...Lojero