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000
FXUS65 KPUB 200512
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CURRENTLY...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO.  COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK INSTABILITY HAVE LED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS...THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA.  LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  THERE HAVE BEEN A
COUPLE OF CELLS MOVE OUT EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN PLEASANT
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  EXPECT ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY GOES AWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE COLDEST AREA WILL BE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
WHERE A FEW UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.  THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANTS IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.

MONDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THAT WE SAW ON
SUNDAY.  THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY LATE
MORNING.  EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE.
AREAS OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SPOTTY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLEASANT WITH LOWER TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

COOL WX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TIME PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO A
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...00Z TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY
BE OVER THE REGION...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNSET.
LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S PLAINS
WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. COULD SEE QUITE
A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

TUESDAY...

MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS WITH 50S AND 60S VALLEYS/MTNS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST MOVES ONLY SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE
PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER THE REGION....ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING.

WEDNESDAY...

RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON THIS DAY. SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOWERS THIS DAY...IF ANY...SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAYBE ALONG THE CONTDVD.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S PLAINS...60S AND 70S MTNS/VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...

THINGS MAY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON THIS DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ON THE PLAINS AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO FORM OVER
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RATON MESA. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO FOR OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. CURRENT MODELS
ARE SHOWING ABOUT 1000 JOULES OF CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

FRIDAY...

MTNS SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY AND A BIT BREEZY ON THIS DAY. PLAINS MAY
SEE SOME ISOLD THUNDER AS QUITE A BIT  CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT
FORCING LOOKS MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE 80S THIS DAY
WITH 60S AND 70S MTNS/VALLEYS. WE MAY START TO SEE SOME FIRE WX
CONCERNS OVER THE HIGHER TRRN THIS DAY.

INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALOFT. MTNS WILL BE DRY
AND WARM AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY AT TIMES. PLAINS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE
HOT AND DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THE FAR
SE PLAINS. FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD. ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THRU SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOVING
ONTO THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. STARK

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...STARK