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000
FXUS65 KPUB 150527
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE
WESTWARD.  OUTFLOW FROM A POSSIBLE MCS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT
MAY HELP PUSH MORE MOISTURE WESTWARD.  GRIDS HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE
40S AND 50S OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER WYOMING WHICH WILL ALSO ASSIST IN
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING
RAINS.  THE CURRENT MODELS HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE STAYING OVER EL
PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES.  CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHER POPS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. LATER SHIFT MAY HAVE
TOP ADJUST DEW POINT AND POP GRIDS BASED ON THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.  INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DAYTIME HUMIDITIES.

REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD.  HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS OVER THESE REGIONS WITH MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE.  LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND STILL ANTICIPATING GUSTY WINDS
FROM ANY CONVECTION.  --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE 12Z EC AND GFS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EC AND GFS DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THEM
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF THESE STORMS. THE WALDO CANYON
BURN SCAR WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

WEDNESDAY MODELS BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE THE PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY
EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. -PJC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS
AND KPUB BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS AT KALS DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD SO WL NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN
THE TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PJC
AVIATION...28