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000
FXUS65 KPUB 222138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
338 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

...COOL FRONT BACKS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGES.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 20S
AND 30S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME
40S ARE FOUND IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY EAST OF LA JUNTA.
EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH THE DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
SEND A SURGE OF COOL...MOIST AIR INTO EASTERN COLORADO AT THE LOWER
LEVELS.  EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK THIS AIRMASS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD IT THERE FOR THURSDAY.  A DECK OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS AIRMASS OVER THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE A FEW PATCHES OF
FOG AND OR DRIZZLE.

ON THURSDAY...NO PRECIP INITIALLY BUT AS THE DAY WEARS ON...COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...LATE IN THE
DAY.  THIS AREA WILL BE AT THE FRINGE OF THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
PLAINS AND HAVE THE FORCING OF THE MOUNTAINS TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION.  THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OUT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
GOES ON.  MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS.  ALTHOUGH...THE SETUP
FOR ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP IS NOT VERY CONVINCING...THERE
COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS IF THE STRATUS DECK COMES IN
THICK ENOUGH ON THURSDAY.  FOR EVERYPLACE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE...NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...MAINLY JUST WARM AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM POSSIBLE...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT LIKELY.

THE OTHER NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS.  UNDER CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVER THE EAST...AND JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL.  LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGES.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED DUE TO A CHANGE IN FUELS STATUS AS OF
THIS MORNING.  THE LATEST STATUS REPORT INDICATES THERE IS ENOUGH
GREEN UP OCCURRING TO REDUCE THE FIRE THREAT FOR THE TIME BEING. IT
WILL STILL BE WINDY AND DRY ACROSS THE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER...SO CAUTION TO AVOID FIRE STARTS IS STILL A GOOD IDEA. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS...AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSITIONS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW STRATUS...FOG AND ANY
DRIZZLE TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STILL POINT TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS. MUCH DEPENDS ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP WITH MODELS
VARYING IN EXACT POSITION. THE NAM SETS UP THE DRYLINE FROM EADS
DOWN TO WEST OF SPRINGFIELD WHICH WOULD PUT THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PLAINS UNDER THE THREAT. THE GFS HAS THE DRYLINE SET UP ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER...WHICH WOULD PUT THE EXTREME FAR EASTERN AREAS
UNDER THE THREAT. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...AND SHEAR IS MODEST AT 30-40 KTS. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FUTURE
RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...STRONG MIXING WILL
ALLOW GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO SPREAD
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.

THE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP. MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE IT ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER...OR EAST INTO KANSAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ALONG THE
BORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
MIXING WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FUEL STATUS. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ALL
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING GRILLING ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

CHUNKS OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF THE OPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A
COOL FRONT WITH 80S FOR HIGHS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

GENERALLY VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA UNTIL AROUND 06Z...INCLUDING ALL 3
TAF SITES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN...WITH LOCAL MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ACTIVITY. ALSO...ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY. STARTING
AROUND 06Z...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS LAYER. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS LAYER LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL AFFECT
KCOS AND KPUB BUT NOT KALS. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW