000
FXUS65 KPUB 240512
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND ADJUSTED POPS
BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTS OF THE PLAINS NEXT 24 HOURS...

COOL...STABLE AIRMASS HAS COVERED THE PLAINS MOST OF TODAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.  MEANWHILE...WINDY AND WARM TO THE
WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE.  SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY...SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS
AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AREAS...WITH MAYBE EVEN A CELL TRYING TO FORM
ON THE SOUTHWEST BACA COUNTY BORDER.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE AND INCREASE A BIT THIS EVENING.  THEN...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...STILL SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MOSTLY LIGHT STUFF...BUT COULD EVEN BE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION WHICH
COULD DROP SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ON A LOCAL BASIS.  CONTINUED
MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...COULD BE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 3 PM MDT.  DRYLINE WILL
BE OUT THERE SOMEWHERE...PROBABLY RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES.  SHEAR IS LOW INITIALLY
BUT EVENTUALLY CREEPS UP TO AROUND 40 OR 45 KNOTS ALONG THE KANSAS
BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY.  SO...COULD BE A FEW SEVERE CELLS TO
DEAL WITH.  LARGE HAIL WOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH CAPE...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...THAT A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EITHER.

OTHER CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS...HUMIDITIES AND FUELS WILL ALL BE AT CRITICAL LEVELS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ALL OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. OUTDOOR
BURNING OR ANY OTHER ACTIVITIES THAT COULD START A FIRE SHOULD BE
SUSPENDED. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST STRONG AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 9PM FRIDAY EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO SHIFT
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE
THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF AND WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. CURRENT SOLUTIONS HAVE THE DRYLINE SET
UP FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF KIOWA COUNTY...SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD. HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST
EAST OF THIS LINE. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THEY COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE ANY SHIFT
IN THE DRYLINE COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...OR NONE AT ALL. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE
EXPECT LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON FUEL
STATUS. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED OVER THIS AREA ON SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE LOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH BROAD TROUGHING
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ENHANCE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND FORCE THE RIDGE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE DRYLINE WELL INTO KANSAS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY HELPING TO MITIGATE ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SOUTHERN COLORADO. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR ANY OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING BACKYARD GRILLING ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY INTO COLORADO.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH
GENERALLY 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF KPUB. ALSO...OVERNIGHT AREAS OF
AT LEAST MVFR STRATUS ARE STILL PROJECTED TO REDEVELOP IMPACTING BOTH
THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 15Z FRIDAY. TAF SITE KALS
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ221-222-225>227.

&&

$$