000
FXUS65 KPUB 151742
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITTING OVER COLORADO WITH DISTURBANCES
NEAR LAS VEGAS NV AND OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS COLORADO WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH
50S TO 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

THE MAIN FORECAST DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL BE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION.  DECENT ENERGY STUCK UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG
WITH INCREASED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALL HIGH-RES MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY 17Z WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 20Z...SPREADING INTO
THE PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH 22Z.  STEERING FLOWS ALOFT REMAIN
WEAK...SO CELLS WILL LIKELY DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND BETTER INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...TELLER COUNTY INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE.
DO HAVE CONCERNS OVER THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  IF ONE OF THESE CELLS DEVELOPS OVER THE BURN
SCAR...IT COULD QUICKLY PUT DOWN A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
LEADING TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.  THOSE AROUND AND NEAR THE BURN
SCAR SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.  TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE PLAINS.

HIGH-RES MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AROUND SUNSET INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO WESTERN
COLORADO AND INCREASES WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
HOW FAR EAST THEY MAKE IT BEFORE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET.  CURRENT PROGS HAVE AREAS OF
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING WEST OF COLORADO
HIGHWAY 71.  THINK THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE CELLS MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS
AND DISSIPATE.  EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

ON THU A SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE AREA AND HELPING TO
KICK OFF ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING OVR THE MTN AREAS. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS CAN AGAIN BE
EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA. IT DRIES OUT THU NIGHT...BUT A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MSTR OVR THE ERN BORDER AREA EARLY FRI MORNING WL LIKELY
MEAN STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG. ON FRI SW FLOW ALOFT WL
INCREASE OVR THE AREA AS AN UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY OVR THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH VERY WARM
HIGH TEMPS AGAIN. RH VALUES WL BE QUITE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
AT THIS TIME WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WL STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

ON SAT THAT UPR TROF WL MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO WRN CO.
MSTR WL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF AND THERE SHOULD BE ISOLD TO
SCT PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS DURING THE DAY AND
TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WL BE A LITTLE COOLER. HIGHS OVR ERN AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
SOME ISOLD PCPN MAY ALSO SPREAD TO THE SERN PLAINS AS THE UPR TROF
CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE STATE. COULD SEE SOME CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER.

UPR LEVEL TROFINESS IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN. THE
ECMWF IS WETTER THAN THE GFS THRU THIS PERIOD AND FOR NOW WL KEEP
POPS MOSTLY IN THE ISOLD CATEGORY. WITH TEMPS BEING COOLER...WL
LIKELY HAVE SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IF THE WETTER
ECMWF IS CORRECT. TUE AN UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVR ERN UT
AND WRN CO...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

KALS...SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FRAME FOR ACTIVITY NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL BE FROM 20-01Z.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
40 KTS FROM ANY NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH MUCH LESS IN THE
WAY OF TSRA COVERAGE EXPECTED.

COS...SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE TERMINAL WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE AIRPORT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR TSRA AT KCOS WILL BE 21-01Z. ANY TSRA THAT IMPACT THE
TERMINAL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS TO 40 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF TSRA
COVERAGE EXPECTED.

KPUB...LESS CHANCE OF TSRA REACHING THE TERMINAL THAN AT
KCOS/KALS...THOUGH A FEW WEAK TSRA MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. EVEN IF TSRA DON`T REACH THE TERMINAL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN