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000
FXUS65 KREV 122022
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
122 PM PDT Fri Apr 12 2024


.SYNOPSIS...

Cooler, wetter, and more windy weather pattern has returned for the
weekend as a storm treks through the Sierra and western Nevada. Plan
on periods of rain and snow showers, even some lightning, as well as
winds and much cooler temperatures through early next week. Dry and
more typical temperatures will return mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Our next storm for the weekend is slowly trekking towards the
California coastline this afternoon and in the process will kick off
some gusty winds, rain/snow showers as well as thunderstorms through
the weekend.

- No significant changes were made to the forecast today. See latest
wind advisories and lake wind advisories.


Current Conditions as of 1pm:

* Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed across northern
  California this afternoon. Per latest HREF guidance a few stronger
  thunderstorm cells may develop, especially for areas north of a
  line from Susanville to Lovelock today. With temperatures expected
  to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s with MLCAPE around 250 to
  500 J/kg by later this afternoon and 25 to 30 knots of effective
  shear it should be enough for a few organized storms this
  afternoon. Forecast soundings show very deep mixing (to near
  500mb) which will support some severe wind threat.

* Winds are trending up across the Sierra ridges this afternoon with
  some breezes already mixed down into the lower valley areas.
  Sierra ridge wind gusts already in the 55 to 70 mph range with
  valley wind gusts 25 to 35 mph. Winds will continue to increase
  overnight into Saturday ahead of the main front passage. Aviation
  impacts will continue overnight into Saturday as well with reports
  of turbulence already this afternoon.

Weekend Forecast:

Winds:

* Sierra crest wind gusts peak around 60-80 mph and begin to taper
  by late Saturday afternoon. For the lower valleys, widespread S-SW
  wind gusts 30-40 mph will continue and then ramp up for Saturday.
  By Saturday afternoon, stronger S-SE winds develop across Mineral,
  Pershing, and portions of S. Mono County along US-6.

* Wind gusts upwards of 40-60 mph are possible in western NV and
  eastern Sierra areas may result in crosswind hazards for high
  profile vehicles, especially along US-95 near Walker Lake. Watch
  out for areas of blowing dust downwind of dry lake beds/desert
  sink areas along portions of US-50 and I-80. Otherwise plan on
  intermittent impacts to outdoor recreation including rough lake
  waters through late Saturday evening.

Precipitation and Thunderstorm Chances:

* Saturday will be the peak day for chances at rain and snow showers
  with 80-90% chances for showers across the Sierra and 40-60%
  chances for far western Nevada. The thunderstorm potential sticks
  around as well, welcome to Spring storm fun, with the best
  instability north of Highway 50 in Wrn NV, Lassen, and Plumas
  counties. Snow levels will start to drop down from 8500 feet on
  Friday to near 6000-7000 feet Saturday afternoon. Plan on some
  slow down across Sierra passes with a few inches of accumulation
  possible through the weekend.

* Sunday: Snow levels drop even more (to around 4000-5000`) with
  snow showers possible as a precipitation band sweeps through the
  Sierra and western Nevada behind the low center. Can`t rule out an
  additional 1-3" along the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin northward
  into Lassen and far northern Washoe counties. Stronger cells may
  produce locally higher snow totals up to 5".

For the most part, precipitation potential drops off by Monday as
the storm exits eastward. There is a trend for drier conditions
next week as another shortwave approaches, but it looks to stay
north of the area.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

*  Strong and gusty winds are producing mountain wave turbulence and
   LLWS this afternoon. Surface winds will increase and peak during
   the afternoon/evening hours today and Saturday with widespread
   gusts 25-35 kts, locally stronger to 40 kts.

*  On Saturday winds will vary between SE-SW through midday, but
   there will be a notable shift to the west along the Hwy 395/I-580
   corridor by mid afternoon and across much of western NV by
   Saturday evening as the front surges through. Stronger wind gusts
   will be possibles for KHTH-KNFL-KLOL with S-SE wind gusts in
   excess of 50kt possible. Areas of blowing dust across western
   Nevada may reduce visibility below 1SM at times.

*  Plan on Isolated-scattered showers from the Sierra and Reno-
   Carson City area northward through this evening. There will more
   widespread shower potential on Saturday. There is a 10-30% chance
   of thunder each day, focused along the Sierra, far western NV and
   areas north of I-80.

*  Snow levels will remain above most terminals although they could
   dip briefly to Sierra terminal elevations in heavier showers.
   Expect periods of terrain obscuration and MVFR conditions in rain
   showers for Sierra sites and brief mountain top obscuration and
   MVFR conditions at lower elevations, especially along and behind
   the front Saturday.

Fuentes/Edan

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight NVZ002.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ001-004.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight CAZ072.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday CAZ073.

&&

$$