Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
431 FNUS75 KRIW 262333 FWSRIW Spot Forecast for Sublette Co. Rx Practical...Sublette County Unified Fire National Weather Service Riverton WY 533 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 MDT on April 26. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service .DISCUSSION...Complicated weather pattern for the next two days. Scattered rain showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue this evening through about sunset, then rain/snow showers for the rest of the night into the morning. West winds at the site will shift to the east-southeast overnight, and should generally remain from the southeast into Saturday. Some forecast guidance is indicating the heaviest precipitation to be overnight, then just scattered showers on Saturday. Total precipitation should be between 0.25" and 0.50". With this wet pattern, gusty outflow should remain below 30 mph. Precipitation chances decrease considerably late Saturday evening. ...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds... ...Haines index is high level haines both day and night... .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-90 percent). Scattered showers and thunderstorms through 2400, then rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms after 2400. A slight chance of snow showers after 2400 as well. CWR.................60 percent decreasing to 35 percent after 2400. Chance of pcpn......60 to 70 percent. LAL.................3 until 2400, then 2 until 0300, then 1. Min temperature.....30-32. Max humidity........100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West-northwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast by 2100. Gusts up to 20 mph are also likely. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Ridgetop wind.......North around 10 mph shifting to the east late in the evening, then increasing to around 15 mph after 2400. Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL decreasing to 1100 ft AGL after 2100. Transport winds.....North around 12 mph shifting to the east 15 to 24 mph after 2100. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (43500 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (19500 knot-ft) after 2400. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........74 74 74 73 73 72 72 73 74 75 76 76 Weather cov.....SCT SCT CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RS RS SW SW SW Tstm cov........SCT SCT CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CWR.............60 60 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 40 40 Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 50 60 60 60 70 70 70 70 70 70 LAL.............3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 Temp............52 51 44 42 40 40 38 37 36 35 36 33 RH..............40 41 60 73 82 82 85 85 85 85 89 100 20 FT wind dir..NW N NE E E SE E E E E SE E 20 FT wind spd..8 8 8 8 8 9 13 14 17 16 16 15 20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 12 12 13 18 19 25 22 22 20 Ridge wind dir..N N N E E E E E E E E E Ridge wind spd..10 10 10 15 15 15 25 25 25 25 25 25 Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 4.3 4.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 Transp wind dir.N N N E E E E E E E E E Transp wind spd.12 12 12 15 15 15 23 23 23 24 24 24 Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 SDspl kt-ft/100044 44 44 20 20 20 24 24 24 24 24 24 .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (80-90 percent). Snow and rain showers likely before 0900. Rain showers possible through the rest of the day, but heavier between 1100 and 1400. Isolated thunderstorms are possible after 1200. CWR.................15 percent. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. LAL.................1, then 2 after 1200. Max temperature.....Around 50. Min humidity........55-60 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after 1200. Ridgetop wind.......Southeast 16 to 18 mph. Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 20 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17700 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (63500 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........89 90 91 91 91 90 90 91 91 91 91 91 Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM Weather type....SW SW RS RS RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 Chc of pcpn (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Temp............33 32 34 36 41 42 43 46 47 47 49 48 RH..............96 100 96 89 85 76 68 63 58 58 54 54 20 FT wind dir..E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..14 12 11 12 13 12 13 11 12 11 10 11 20 FT wind gust.19 17 16 17 18 17 18 16 17 16 14 16 Ridge wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE Ridge wind spd..20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E E E E Transp wind spd.20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 SDspl kt-ft/100018 18 18 34 34 34 56 56 56 64 64 64 .SATURDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-90 percent). Scattered rain showers, snow showers and isolated thunderstorms before 2100, then isolated rain showers and snow showers overnight. CWR.................35 percent decreasing to 0 percent after 2400. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................2 until 2100, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 30. Max humidity........100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 11 mph shifting to the southwest 6 to 7 mph late in the evening, then shifting to the west-northwest around 5 mph around 2400. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms before 2100. Ridgetop wind.......South 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest overnight. Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL in the late evening and overnight. Transport winds.....South 12 to 16 mph shifting to the northwest around 10 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (48200 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (5000 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........86 86 87 88 86 85 83 81 80 78 79 80 Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RS RS RS RS SW SW SW Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 20 LAL.............2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............48 47 43 40 38 38 37 36 35 33 33 32 RH..............56 63 70 79 85 85 89 89 92 96 96 100 20 FT wind dir..SE S S S SW W W W NW NW NW NW 20 FT wind spd..11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 20 FT wind gust.16 13 12 10 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 Ridge wind dir..S S S SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW Ridge wind spd..15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Transp wind dir.SE SE SE S S S W W W NW NW NW Transp wind spd.16 16 16 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 SDspl kt-ft/100048 48 48 8 8 8 5 5 5 6 6 6 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 50s. West winds around 12 mph. .TUESDAY... Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the mid 50s. West winds around 14 mph. .WEDNESDAY... Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 50s. West winds around 10 mph. $$ Forecaster...McDonald Requested by...Cass Urbigkit Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2411968.0/RIW .DELDT 04/26/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL cass.urbigkit@sublettecountywy.gov