000
FNUS71 KRNK 231515
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for DWR unit...DWR
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1115 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Warm and dry today with decreasing humidities as mixing becomes
more efficient. Min RH will be around 20 percent.

Southwest winds gusting to 25mph will allow for good ventilation.
Winds decrease late evening and dew points will be on the rise
as moisture increases ahead of an approaching front tonight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 13 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (49400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (104200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................67 to 106.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   5   4   7   10  25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............58  59  61  63  65  66
RH..............29  27  25  23  23  22
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   9   10  12
20 FT wind gust.13  14  14  16  17  19
Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 5.0 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.5
Mixng wind dir..W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Mixng wind spd..13  14  14  16  18  18
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............67  77  89  106 82  85
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1K.57  67  79  96  114 120

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    west 10 to 14 mph after 3 am. Gusts up to 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (75700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................68 early in the evening decreasing to 7 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........35     33     49     39     82     88
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      10     10
Temp............65     61     58     56     54     52
RH..............24     35     40     44     49     58
20 ft wind......S 12   S 12   SW 12  SW 12  SW 12  SW 14
20 ft wind gust.19     19     20     20     17     19
Mix hgt (ft)....5500   600    600    600    900    1200
Mixing wind......S 16   S 9    S 9    SW 9   SW 8   SW 13
LVORI...........1      2      2      2      2      2
ADI.............68     8      9      8      7      11
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.87     6      6      6      8      16

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 14 mph with gusts to around 22
                    mph.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 14 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (94400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................15 early in the morning increasing to 86 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........79     60     32     16     24     27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     10     10     0      0
Temp............51     53     56     60     61     62
RH..............67     68     58     47     40     38
20 ft wind......W 14   W 13   W 12   W 11   W 10   W 10
20 ft wind gust.19     22     20     19     18     18
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   2000   3800   5500   6700   6400
Mixing wind......W 17   W 21   W 22   NW 20  NW 16  NW 15
LVORI...........3      1      1      1      1      1
ADI.............15     40     78     84     75     68
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.20     42     82     108    108    95

$$
Forecaster...Gruver
Requested by...Tyler Urgo
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411976.0/RNK
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Tyler.urgo@dcr.virginia.gov