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000
FXUS63 KSGF 160605
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
105 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe
  thunderstorms across the area today. Large hail and damaging
  winds the primary risks. Confidence remains limited. Stay
  tuned for updates.

- Windy conditions will develop on today with south winds
  gusting up to 40-50+ mph at times.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

This evening into tonight: A warm front is currently sitting
across the highway 54 corridor and slowly drifting northward.
Some convection may fire along the front, bringing a risk for
1" hail, but chances that storms fire in our CWA are less than
20%. Overall severe risk is less given conditionality of severe
threat, small area and time window where storms may develop,
and limited chances for convection to initiate in the first
place.

Overnight tonight may see some patches of rain move through,
but most locations should stay dry.

For Tuesday, the strong, stacked low pressure system that is
driving short term conditions will shift from NE to IA, this
results in the CWA bring between better forcing further north
closer to the low and further south where better instability
should exist. In fact, the mid-level jet right exit region will
be over the CWA, resulting in upper confluence and downward
motion. The airmass will not feature a lot of moisture
throughout the profile and a dry line will surge in from the
west, further reducing potential for sustained convection and
limiting coverage. But, if convection can become established and
enough instability can develop, shear will be strong (deep
layer shear around 70 kts) so severe storms will be possible.
Current thinking is that the best potential for storms will be
over the northeastern and eastern CWA in the afternoon and
evening, but still featuring limited PoPs of <50% over most of
the area. Main hazards would be large hail and damaging winds.
There remains considerable uncertainty on the coverage and
potential for storms, the amount of instability that can be
realized, and resulting hazards. Stay tuned for updates.

The greater likelihood of impacts lies with gusty southerly
winds on Tuesday, especially over the western CWA where the dry
line moves through earlier in the day, resulting in increased
mixing. Could see gusts of 45-55 mph along and west of Highway
65. There may also exist a fire weather threat over the west
depending on the level of mixing and surface RH values. HRRR
shows RH values into the teens in the afternoon west of Highway
65.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Wednesday will see breezy westerly winds, highs in the 70s to
mid 80s, and sunny skies.

For Thursday, SPC has the equivalent to a slight risk over the
southwestern CWA. Guidance shows a warm front across the area
with a surface low moving up the front in the afternoon as
shortwave energy moves through. There is considerable
uncertainty in how much morning precipitation will be around and
resulting afternoon instability. Current forecast calls for
highs ranging from the low 70s NW to the mid 80s S. If ideal
conditions can develop, deep layer shear around 50 kts with
favorable arcing hodographs and SBCAPE values up to around 2,000
J/kg are possible. Severe weather with all hazard modes would
be possible. Stay tuned.

Unsettled conditions are possible Friday and Saturday with
20-30% chances for showers and highs in the 50s and 60s. Sunday
and Monday look dry with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Surface low pressure is moving east across the central Plains
early this morning. Gusty southerly winds will develop early
this morning and increase into the afternoon hours. Moisture is
also increasing across the area and MVFR ceilings will develop
this morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
currently occurring across portions of southeastern Kansas and
northern eastern Oklahoma early this morning, this activity
could affect the TAFs overnight but better chances are for it to
stay south and west of the area.

A cold front is moving east across western Kansas currently and
thunderstorms are developing along the front. This activity will
move east the rest of the overnight hours and will start to move
into the area this morning with scattered showers and storms
possible. The storms may weaken as they move into the area later
this morning but additional shower and storm development will be
possible this afternoon into early this afternoon generally west
of Highway 65. A drier air mass will move into the area behind
the front with clouds clearing and VFR conditions returning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Wise