Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
000
FXUS64 KSHV 201845
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
145 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to expand in
coverage, mainly near and north of the I-20 Corridor this
afternoon but our southern half will get into the action later
tonight as an upper level trough moves out of the Texas Hill
Country and Four Corners Region and quickly moves across our
region Sunday Morning. Not seeing the stout convection we were
seeing earlier this morning but similar elevated instability still
exists across the southern and eastern half of our region so
cannot rule out some hail for the remainder of the afternoon into
the evening and overnight hours with increasing ascent with the
arrival of the upper trough but the bigger threat continues to be
locally heavy downpours. While it`s been the northern half of our
region that has experienced the heavier rainfall so far today, it
will be our southern half that will experience the heavier
downpours overnight. Good consensus with local CAMS, HRRR and HREF
output of convection across Central and Southeast Texas increasing
later this afternoon with this activity pivoting north and east
into the southern half of NE TX, quickly expanding east of the
Toledo Bend Reservoir into EC and NE LA this evening into the
overnight hours.
If there has been a trend since this time yesterday in the models,
that trend has been for the heavier rainfall to exit our region a
little sooner, as in maybe during the predawn hours vs the sunrise
to mid morning hours on Sunday so for this reason, have sped up
ending the precipitation across our region during this timeframe.
Clouds will try to clear from northwest to southeast across our
region during the day Sunday with daytime highs only reaching the
60s. Sfc riding moves ovhd Sunday Night and with clear skies we
should see good radiational cooling conditions with low
temperatures falling as low as the middle and upper 30s across our
far northern zones with lows in the 40s across the remainder of
the Four State Region.
13
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Should begin to see a returning southerly component to the wind
on Monday across our western half and areawide by Tuesday and this
will result in a quick and impressive warming trend. WNW flow
aloft will not amount to much at least through Tue into Tue Night
with upper ridging moving across our region Wed into Thu. NBM is
more heavily weighted to the drier ECMWF vs the GFS with only
small pops across our far NW and N zones Wed into Thu. Prefer the
ECMWF handling of a weak front that tries to backdoor itself into
our region Wed into Wed Night before returning back northward Thu
into Fri. Upper ridging appears strong enough to preclude anything
significant pop wise by the end of the work week but held onto
NBM pops for Fri as a weaker ridge would suggest otherwise.
Needless to say confidence is not very strong on rain chances for
Fri and just beyond this 7-day forecast cycle but the ridge does
appear to migrate far enough east of our region for next weekend
that higher pops are likely warranted just beyond this 7-day
forecast.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy SHRA/TSRA continue to
prevail across the airspace this afternoon. This trend will
continue through the afternoon and into the overnight period of
the package before BR/-RA becomes the primary focus. Mix of MVFR
and IFR currently across the airspace and given the trends in the
guidance of what is to come later this evening, it is likely this
will continue until some recovery by the end of the period, mid-
morning Sunday. Given the pattern in place, reduced VSBY to under
2 SM at times, and CIGS at or below 700 feet are to be expected
through much of the period. Recovery across the I-30 terminals
looks to be in order first, before the I-20 terminals as low
clouds begin to lift and become more BKN after 21/12z.
RK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 50 67 45 72 / 100 30 0 0
MLU 49 65 42 68 / 100 50 0 0
DEQ 44 65 37 70 / 100 10 0 0
TXK 47 66 42 71 / 100 10 0 0
ELD 46 65 39 70 / 100 30 0 0
TYR 50 65 44 71 / 100 20 0 0
GGG 49 65 42 71 / 100 20 0 0
LFK 50 66 44 72 / 100 30 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53