Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
000
FXUS64 KSJT 271922
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
222 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
The main concern in the short term forecast will be the potential
for strong (marginally severe) thunderstorms for areas generally
east of an Abilene to Junction line. As mentioned in previous
discussions, an upper level shortwave is making its way through
the area. And although there is limited moisture available, lift
and cold temperatures aloft are expected to result in isolated to
scattered thunderstorms for our eastern counties. Short range CAMs
continue to show the best coverage and most intense storms just
east of our area. Storms are expected to develop by 4 or 5 PM this
afternoon. Most of the activity, with the exception of a few
lingering showers, should be east of our forecast area by 8 PM.
A weak cold front will move through behind the trough this
evening turning winds to the north at 10 mph or less. Lows will
range from the upper 30s in our northwestern counties to the lower
40s for southern and eastern areas. For Thursday, dry weather is
expected with continued warming, as highs get into the mid and
upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Shortwave ridging will be in place on Saturday and Sunday across
much of the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, an upper level low will
move onshore across the southern California coast on Sunday and
then into the southwestern U.S. on Monday. West Central Texas will
be in west- southwest flow aloft between the ridge to the east
and the low to the west. Downsloping southwesterly winds will
allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s over the weekend.
The warmest day of the forecast is expected on Sunday, when
temperatures may exceed 90 degrees in a few spots. The
aforementioned upper low will approach the region by the beginning
of next week. Associated cold front passage is progged for late
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible as the front moves through mainly across our eastern
counties. Cooler temperatures can be expected behind the front,
with highs in the 60s and 70s on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Generally VFR conditions expected at all sites through Thursday
morning. There may be a few TSRA this afternoon and evening,
mainly near KBBD. Other than that, just some mid and upper level
clouds moving through associated with an upper level trough moving
through the area. West winds will have a few gusts to near 20
knots this afternoon, before diminishing to less than 10 knots out
of the north/northwest shortly after 00Z tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 74 55 79 / 10 0 0 0
San Angelo 38 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 40 80 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 41 73 52 77 / 10 0 0 0
Sweetwater 39 74 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 41 75 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
Brady 41 75 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...20