811
FXUS64 KSJT 270601
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
101 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Currently, we have a few sub-severe storms affecting parts of
Mason and San Saba counties. These are expected to move northeast
and out of the area in the next few hours. We may continue to see
a few storms develop in our far southeastern counties over the
next couple hours. Once these storms end this evening, expect a
relatively quiet night.

The next upper level low to affect the area is digging southeast
into northern Arizona this afternoon, and will induce lee
troughing tonight, turning winds to the south in our area, and
quickly returning moisture to our CWA. Dewpoint values west of a
Junction to Coleman to Throckmorton line range from around 25F
degrees to 40F. As south to southeasterly flow picks up tonight,
dewpoint values will rise back into the 60s for most of the area.
A few of the high resolution CAMs are showing some storms
developing in the northwestern Concho Valley and western Big
Country tomorrow morning along the retreating dryline. Some of
these storms could be strong enough to produce large hail and
damaging wind gusts as they affect portions of the western and
northern Big Country. Additional storm development may occur
tomorrow afternoon mainly north of a Sterling City to Brownwood
line, and with afternoon heating and destabilization, deep layer
shear greater than 40 knots, and increasing mid level lapse rates,
any of these storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, and
possibly a tornado.

Saturday night, as the upper level trough approaches from the
west, we will have a good chance for a line of thunderstorms to
develop in our western counties late in the evening, then move
east through the area during the overnight hours. A Pacific cold
front/dryline will move into the area providing lift. A moist air
mass with dewpoints in the low to mid 60sF, will yield CAPE values
in the 2000 J/kg to 3000 J/kg range, and deep layer shear is
expected to range from 40 to 55 knots. Should the front/dryline,
along with lift from the upper level trough be enough to initiate
storms, they will likely be capable of large hail, gusty winds to
around 60 mph. In addition, a few tornadoes will also be possible
as the storms likely evolve into a QLCS as the move east through
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across our southeastern
counties through the mid morning hours on Sunday before exiting
out of the area by the afternoon. Skies will clear out quickly in
the the wake of the Pacific front with highs in the mid to upper
90s. Monday and Tuesday will be relatively quiet. Showers and
thunderstorm chances come back into the forecast by the middle of
the week we go into west-southwest flow aloft and multiple
shortwave troughs track across the region. Temperatures will
remain steady in the mid 80s to lower 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR ceilings will develop from south to north overnight, with
ceilings scattering out across the northern terminals by late
morning, but lingering into early afternoon across the southern
terminals. Some brief showers and thunderstorms are possible at
from mid morning through noon, but coverage should be limited.
Thunderstorm will be possible at KABI by late afternoon and will
include VCTS after 23Z. Thunderstorm chances are expected to
increase at all TAF sites tomorrow evening into the overnight
hours. Expect gusty south to southeast winds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     56  82  57  88 /  70   0   0   0
San Angelo  55  85  55  91 /  70   0   0   0
Junction    61  87  59  92 /  90  10   0  10
Brownwood   58  82  57  87 /  90  10   0  10
Sweetwater  56  83  58  88 /  50   0   0   0
Ozona       55  85  57  89 /  60   0   0   0
Brady       59  82  60  87 /  90  20   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24