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000
FXUS62 KTAE 160739
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
339 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

High pressure will prevail through tonight with clear skies,
dry temperatures, warm temperatures, and breezy winds in the
afternoon. Fog potential exists once again this morning due to calm
winds and moist conditions near the surface, particularly across our
FL Panhandle and SE AL counties. Fog should quickly erode after
sunrise with better mixing. Highs today will be in the mid to upper
80s inland with low 80s near the coast. Overnight lows will drop
into the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper ridge axis will shift east towards the east coast as an
upper low moves northeast towards southern Canada by Thursday.
Surface ridging will continue across the southeast US emanating
from high pressure in the western Atlantic. Mid level flow
transitions to a more zonal flow late week while a surface high
pressure center sets up in the eastern Gulf allowing winds to veer
from the southeast to southwest. The area will be hard pressed to
see any rainfall through the first part of the weekend, though
a couple of weak showers cannot be ruled out as shortwave energy
glances by to the north. With the zonal flow aloft, mid/high
clouds from the upstream system and shortwaves traversing the flow
appear plentiful Wednesday and Thursday. Despite this, daily high
temperatures will reach well into the 80s, with a few 90s in the
mix Friday and Saturday. The next frontal system, and the one that
seems to be gaining consistency and confidence in the models,
appears to make a run at the area Sunday into Monday. Some
rainfall will accompany the front along with a cooling trend back
into the upper 70s to low 80s behind the front heading into the
next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KTLH, KVLD, and
KABY. KECP is currently seeing occasional MVFR to IFR visibilities
and CIGs with KDHN expected to follow shortly. This will last to
around 13-14z at both sites, clearing quickly resuming VFR for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

High pressure will remain entrenched across the Gulf waters this
week. Southeasterly winds will continue through Thursday with a
slight uptick in wave heights to 2 to 4 feet west of Apalachicola
as a storm system moves out of the southern Plains. A local area
of high pressure sets up in the eastern Gulf Thursday night
causing winds to clock around to the southwest with wave heights
slowly falling throughout our Gulf waters. The next frontal system
to arrive in the area appears to be late in the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Moisture will continue to increase across the area via
southerly flow despite the dry pattern. Elevated mixing heights
areawide and locally higher southerly transport winds today across
the FL Panhandle and SE AL will yield high dispersions for the
aforementioned areas. Tomorrow, dispersions will remain generally
good with elevated southerly transport winds persisting with
slightly lower mixing heights. On Thursday, the opposite will be
true with slightly weaker southerly transport winds and higher
mixing heights, once again yielding good dispersions. MinRH will see
a gradual increase through the period with today seeing values in
the 30-40% range before increasing to 40-50% Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The period of dry conditions will continue for the next several
days with the next chance for rainfall accompanying a low pressure
system possibly late this weekend. Generally, less than a quarter
inch of rainfall is anticipated with this system at this time.

The areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee,
Aucilla, and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood, the Suwanee
has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford.
Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwanee with
additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.



&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  60  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   81  63  79  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        85  61  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        85  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      87  61  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    87  59  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  65  76  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 10 AM CDT this morning through late
     tonight for FLZ108-112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Scholl