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000
FXUS62 KTAE 240533
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
133 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The forecast is right on track on this fair-weather evening, so no
updates to the weather forecast are forthcoming. Regional upper
air soundings this evening showed a strong subsidence inversion
between 4,000 and 6,000 feet.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Surface high pressure will remain on tap throughout the near term,
mostly clear to clear skies are expected. Needless to say, dry
conditions and light winds are also expected. Expect daytime highs
generally in the low 80s with overnight lows generally in the low to
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A trough moving through the Great Lakes will flatten our ridge out
Wednesday night and Thursday and will also try to send a cold
front down to our area. However, the front won`t make it. At most,
an isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out over the
northernmost tier of counties Thursday afternoon, but minimal
impacts are expected. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s
with lows in the upper 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Ridging builds back stronger across the area late week into the
weekend. High pressure will be positioned off the southeast and
mid- Atlantic coasts while a low pressure system develops over the
Plains. This results in a tightening pressure gradient and perhaps
some breezy winds this weekend. Otherwise, temperatures will be on
the rise with widespread upper 80s by early next week for highs.
Lows will also climb into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period. KABY
started reporting some MVFR cigs, so opted to add a tempo group in
for that. Guidance, satellite, and webcams aren`t really picking
up on it so it`s tough to say how long this might last. Outside of
that, KVLD could potentially drop to MVFR vis for a few hours
based off persistence forecasting.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Winds will generally be light and variable through Wednesday
before becoming gentle easterly to southeasterly late in the week.
Winds will freshen over the weekend thanks to a tightening
pressure gradient between the high to our east and a developing
system in the Plains. Cautionary to perhaps low-end advisory level
winds are expected this weekend. Seas will also build in response
to 4 to 6 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Lighter transport winds through tomorrow will lead to fair
dispersions region-wide as high pressure dominates. A system
across the Great Plains on Friday will lead to a tightening
pressure gradient across the region leading to high dispersions on
Friday. This system is not expected to make it through our region
and our next chance for wetting rain doesn`t look to appear until
next week. Moisture gradually increases throughout the week as
winds clock around to being out of the south-southeast by this
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Minor flooding continues along the middle and lower Suwannee, the
lower Withlacoochee, the Aucilla, and the St. Marks Rivers. The
Aucilla and St. Marks continue to fall and should exit flood stage
during the next 2 to 3 days. On the Suwannee, the flood wave is
now near Branford and will continue to move downstream over the
next 5 to 7 days. Little to no rainfall is expected during the
next week, and there are no flood concerns as a result.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  58  86  61 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   79  62  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        81  59  84  61 /   0   0  10   0
Albany        80  58  83  62 /   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      81  58  85  61 /   0   0  10   0
Cross City    81  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  62  77  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Young