000
FXUS65 KTFX 191049
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
450 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Aviation Section Updated

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather is expected through tomorrow as temperatures
begin to trend upwards over the next week. The exception to the
upcoming tranquil weather pattern will be on Sunday, when a system
passing to the north will brings few rain showers and gusty winds
across North Central and Southwestern Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

-Temperatures gradually warm through the middle of next week
-Gusty winds expected Sunday, and a High Wind Watch has been
issued for the Hi Line adjacent to Glacier National Park to Cut
Bank

Short Term (through Saturday)... Overall quiet weather is
expected today and Saturday as upper level ridging across the
Northern Rockies remains in place. Temperatures will be on the
cool side again today with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s
across the area under cloudy skies across the plains but mostly
sunny skies across the southwestern valleys. These clouds will
gradually erode away Friday evening, which will allow temperatures
to once again fall into the teens and 20s for overnight lows
Friday night/Saturday morning. Even with cold starting
temperatures in the morning, temperatures should moderate nicely
Saturday under sunny skies, with temperatures reaching into the
low to mid 50s for most of the area.

Extended (Sunday through next Friday)... A brief interruption in
the tranquil weather is expected on Sunday as an upper level low
pressure system pushes across Southern Alberta. As this upper
level low passes by, strong westerly flow on the south side of
this system will mix to the surface thanks to thermal mixing,
which will result in a blustery day across the Rocky Mountain
Front with sustained winds of up to 40-45 mph and wind gusts as
high as 65-70 mph at times. With this in mind, I have gone ahead
and issued a High Wind Watch for the Hi Line from Glacier National
Park to Cut Bank, which is where the highest probabilities of
high wind criteria winds currently exist. In addition to the
winds, we will also see a few rain showers develop across the
area, though any of these rain showers will not drop much in the
way of meaningful precipitation.

Behind this system, upper level ridging will return to the area
through midweek, which will allow for tranquil weather and
increasing temperatures across the area. However, as we move past
midweek, a weak and broad upper level trough will push into the
Northwestern CONUS, which will bring slightly cooler temperatures
and some precipitation to the area to close out the work week.
Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
450 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 (19/12Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions will prevail over the CWA through the period. There
will be some low level clouds that lower to near 3000 feet at times,
but most of the low clouds should begin to thin out by late
afternoon, with generally high clouds expected overnight tonight.
Short periods of mountains obscured by clouds are possible through
mid afternoon today. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  20  51  31 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  35  19  48  26 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  43  23  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  44  18  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  41  13  52  22 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  43  21  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  40  20  52  28 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  33  17  47  27 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and
Central Pondera-Northern High Plains.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls