Text Products for FWS Issued by TOP

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Versions: 1 2 3 4
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FNUS73 KTOP 211406
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for Pipeline...USFWS
National Weather Service Topeka KS
906 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

Northwest winds sustained at 8-12mph are expected through the
daytime hours with some gusts up to 20mph through midday before
the gust potential subsides. Relative humidity values fall to
around 25 percent this afternoon. Winds relax this evening and
switch to the south by 11pm.

Southwesterly winds quickly increase after sunrise Monday with
sustained winds of 20-25mph and gusts of 35-40mph during the day.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........46 at ignition...Max 62.
RH..................60 percent at ignition...Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds northwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 6 to 11
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7300 ft
                    AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /10500 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /109500 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............46  50  54  56  58  60  61  61  62
RH..............60  48  40  34  33  28  28  28  26
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   8   9   10  11  10  10  9   8
20 FT wind gust.11  13  14  16  18  16  15  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 3.7 6.0 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.8
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100011  37  72  96  107 110 101 94  68

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 37.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south 5 to 8 mph
                    late in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (64700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............61     56     48     43     40     39
RH..............27     34     47     60     67     71
20 FT wind dir..N      N      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..7      4      4      5      6      7
20 FT wind gust.12     6      5      8      9      11
Mix hgt (ft)....6500   500    500    400    400    400
Haines index....4      4      3      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100065     2      3      3      4      5

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 71.
RH..................Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 8 to 16 mph increasing to 18 to 24
                    mph with gusts to around 33 mph in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (91700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (110400
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR     MCLEAR    MCLEAR    MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............38        46        63        69
RH..............73        64        40        34
20 FT wind dir..S         S         S         S
20 FT wind spd..8         16        22        24
20 FT wind gust.13        23        29        33
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1300      4200      5000
Haines index....3         3         3         3
SDspl kt-ft/10005         25        111       148

$$
Forecaster...Flanagan
Requested by...David Spencer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411590.0/TOP
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_spencer@fws.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
