Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
198 FXUS65 KTWC 300951 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 251 AM MST Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Sunny, warm and dry this week with breezy afternoons most days. && .DISCUSSION... While there will some reorientation of the mean upper level flow this week, no major changes in heights are expected. Quasi-zonal flow today will give way to open-wave troughing Wednesday- Thursday, which won`t offer much for a temperature change but create breezy conditions during the day. As a subtropical jet hangs out to the south, a modestly tightened pressure gradient should be maintained most days going through the end of the week. This will be responsible for afternoon winds around 10 to 15 mph, with some periods of winds to 20 mph depending on the day. Afternoon highs in the lower elevations will generally be from the mid 80s to the lower 90s, with a slight nudge down in temperatures on Thursday. Guidance solutions begin to diverge early next week as models disagree on the track of a Pacific northwest low. The 00Z GFS looks to be the outlier at the moment with its much deeper wave output over southern Arizona, compared to its own ensemble members and other cores. NBM probabilities do show the potential for temperatures to drop back to around normal on Monday, but currently only at a 30% chance. At this moment it looks more likely for early next week to remain near to above normal temperature wise with a dry forecast. && .AVIATION...Valid through 01/12Z. SKC through the forecast period. Winds become southwesterly around 10 to 20 kts after 17Z then light and variable after 04Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... High temperatures will be 3-7 degrees above normal into the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less most of this week, with typical afternoon gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest winds will be on Wednesday, with southwest to west winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Min RH values in the valleys will generally be in the single digits this week, with values in the mountains at 12-18 percent. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Edwards Aviation...Edwards Fire Weather....Edwards Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson