Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 251357
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
857 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Sharp and increasingly negative tilt shortwave trough making
steady northeast progress across the area this morning. Attendant
plume of forcing and deeper moisture kicking off a broad area of
mostly light snow. Lake moisture contribution just starting to ramp
up in favored west to northwest flow areas, as indicated by pockets
of moderate snow rotating off the big waters. Winds also starting to
increase, and imagine some areas of blowing snow have started to
develop in those typical exposed areas.

Snows will continue through much of the day, with the focus trending
more toward the favored lake effect areas as cold air advection
continues. Snow amounts/intensity will be held in check by sharp
5kft inversion and overall lack of any real good low level
convergence. Synoptic support/moisture contribution also peel out of
the area this afternoon. Overall, this continues to looks like a
general one to two inch type snow event, with isolated heavier
amounts where snow showers are most persistent. Borderline advisory
thresholds for sure, but when combined with that increasing wind, am
inclined to keep inherited headlines as is for now.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

...Areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle transitioning to light snow...

High Impact Weather Potential...Areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle
transitioning to light snow...causing some travel challenges today
into tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Deep surface low center continues to
exit east away from Michigan early this morning...with the cut off
upper low now over Wisconsin. Dry slot between these two features
has lifted into all of Lower and Eastern Upper Michigan...resulting
in a diminish in widespread shower activity to patch areas of
drizzle and freezing drizzle. A look at upstream radars KMQT and
KGRR shows an area of mainly light snow driven by the deformation
axis via the upper low and wrap-around moisture on the backside of
this system. CAA is in full swing across this upstream area with
winds having switched to the N/NW on the backside of the departing
low. Closer to home...temps range from the lower 20s across Eastern
Upper Michigan to mainly the lower 30s across Northern Lower
Michigan.

Surface low center will continue to lift northward thru SE Ontario
this morning...reaching the Ontario/Quebec border this afternoon
closed cut-off upper low will sweep thru our CWA today...shifting
east of Michigan by this evening...opening/filling as it does so.
Upstream area of synoptic snow over Western Upper Michigan and
Wisconsin will gradually shift eastward into our CWA this morning.
Areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle will transition to light snow from
west to east. Surface obs along our Lake Michigan shoreline are
already reporting some light snow over the past hour or so.
Deformation snow will then continue into this afternoon...but will
begin to transition to lake effect snow showers later this afternoon
into this evening as sufficiently cold air arrives and activates
the lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Main forecast issue is potential snow
amounts as these transitions take place throughout today and into
tonight. Latest NAM BUFR soundings show steadily rising inversion
heights as CAA strengthens throughout today...with a layer of mid
level synoptic moisture maintaining above the inversion thru much of
the day as the deformation axis swings thru. Between increasing
synoptic snow and strengthening lake instability/enhancement...
expect our typical NW flow snowbelt areas will see 3 to 4 inches of
new snow today. Low end advisory level snowfall today combined with
strengthening NW winds leading to blowing snow will more than
justify the issuance of a Winter Wx Advisory for these areas...
including Chippewa county and most counties in NW Lower Michigan.
Snowfall should diminish later this evening and overnight with loss
of synoptic support and moisture...lowering inversion heights and
drying of low levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

...A little snow for some Sunday...

Sunday through Monday night...

Sunday into Sunday night...An Alberta Clipper moves by just to our
north bringing mainly light snow to the region (highest pops north).
It looks like it will be marginally cold enough for a bit of lake
enhancement in southwest flow favored areas. There could be a bit of
rain mixed in near the lakeshore, but mainly snow is expected. It
still looks like 1 to perhaps 3 inches of snow accumulation. Highs
in the lower and middle 30s. Lows in the upper teens to middle 20s.

Monday and Monday night...

Turning milder with weak high pressure ridged across northern
Michigan. This should keep the forecast area mainly dry as energy
passes by to our south. Highs ranging from the lower 30s north to
the lower 40s southeast. Lows in the middle to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

...Turning colder later in the week...

Another area of low pressure likely moves across or just to the
northwest of the area Tuesday. This would place the region on the
warm side of the system likely leading to any initial snow to change
to rain Tuesday. Cooler air then follows for later Wednesday into
Thursday with perhaps a quick shot of colder air Friday. This all
may yield mainly light lake effect snow showers. Highs ranging from
the middle 30s to middle 40s Tuesday, the 30s to lower 40s
Wednesday, then the middle 20s to middle 30s for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 621 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Lingering drizzle/freezing drizzle will continue to transition to
widespread synoptically driven snow this morning...and will then
become lake enhanced during the afternoon and into this evening
before diminishing later tonight. MVFR/IFR conditions will remain
the rule...but conditions will improve to mainly low VFR tonight
as snow diminishes. NW winds will gust to 20 to 30 kts...producing
blowing snow and further lowering vsbys within heavier snow
showers.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Most of our nearshore areas will continue to experience gale force
winds and waves today and this evening as NW winds strengthen...
ushering colder air into the region. Areas of drizzle/freezing
drizzle will transition to widespread synoptically driven  snow this
morning...which will then transition to lake effect snow showers
this afternoon into this evening.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ008-
     019>022-025>027-031-032.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Sunday for LHZ345-346-349.
     GALE WARNING until midnight EST tonight for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341.
     GALE WARNING until midnight EST tonight for LMZ342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR


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