Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 301143
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FA FROM NW ONTARIO AT 07Z.
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE FA. HOWEVER...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HEADING FOR THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AFTER JUST CLEARING ISLE ROYALE. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...WILL HAVE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND
INTRODUCE A CLEARING TREND. OTHERWISE...A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH
COOL MAX TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE IN THE UPPER 40S. 50S TO NEAR
60 ELSEWHERE.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE MASS FIELDS BUT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE
QPF. THE GFS IS MOST GENEROUS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS SO.
LEANED AWAY FROM THE GFS QPF AND SIDED WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN A NEW ALIGNMENT OF THE POPS. ADDED BACK A MENTION OF
ISOLD THUNDER TONIGHT AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF H85 LI`S TO -1C WILL
BE FOUND IN THE WAA ZONE IN CONCERT WITH THE LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LLJ MOVES OVER NW WI AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
NWD. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SAME ARE BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET MOVES OVERHEAD. LEFT
OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS
WELL S OF THE AREA. ADDED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO THE WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT OVER/NEAR MINNESOTA/THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE
EVENING. A STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY AND
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES. WE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND.

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. IT DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO
MIX IN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS RETURNS
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FIFTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS COVERED THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE INVERSION IS RATHER STRONG AND WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF
YEAR WHERE IT TAKES LONGER FOR THESE TYPE OF CLOUDS TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS
WILL LIFT AND DECREASE. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CEILINGS LIFTING
AND THE MOISTURE BECOMING VERY THIN. WE WENT WITH A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH THE STRONG INVERSION EITHER DELAYING OR
KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN TACT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE DID GO SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AT KHYR/KBRD/KINL BUT ONLY HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AT KHIB/KDLH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT AND
SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND WE HAVE A
MENTION IN MOST TAF SITS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  46  56  51 /   0  50  50  40
INL  59  45  60  49 /   0  30  30  20
BRD  59  51  65  50 /   0  40  20  10
HYR  60  47  57  53 /   0  50  70  40
ASX  55  44  58  54 /   0  20  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE





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