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FXUS64 KEPZ 281231 CCA
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
629 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

..CORRECTED FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE..

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and dusty conditions will continue this afternoon as a late
spring storm drops out of the central Rockies down to New Mexico
tonight and Saturday. Winds and blowing dust will be on the
increase again this afternoon, and the winds will continue into
mid evening before diminishing. Some showers or a thunderstorm are
possible over the mountains. The cold front with this system will
move through later tonight, ushering in cold and brisk conditions
for Saturday. Some showers may continue over the mountains. Much
cooler air will move in, with daytime highs some 15 to 20 degrees
cooler than today. This cool air may eventually produce some snow
in the mountains, mainly above 7000 ft in the Sacramento
Mountains. The storm will clear out Sunday with mostly cloud free
skies continuing into the first half of next week. Temperatures
will warm back above normal by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Late April winter-like storm still on schedule, with another round
of strong winds and dust this afternoon, mountain showers and
possibly some light mountain snow Saturday night. Large upper low
driving this storm is now over southern Wyoming and will continue
to drop south, near the Four Corners early this evening and then
over northern New Mexico Saturday morning. The combination of a
tightening surface gradient and the Pacific cold front will
increase winds this afternoon back into an Advisory for all areas.
Will leave current advisory pretty much untouched, with the
exception of extending the east slopes of the Organs and Franklins
(east El Paso and White Sands Missile Range HDQTRS) out to early
Saturday morning. Mountain showers may develop this afternoon as
upper low nears and cold advection aloft destabilizes the airmass.
Models continue to show modest MUCAPEs and LIs, so kept mention of
a thunderstorm. I did add sprinkles to the southern lowlands with
the front tonight. Front should move through El Paso shortly
before midnight. PW`s are relatively high and dewpoints will be
around 35-40 degrees. Models do show drastic drying out behind the
front.

Saturday...with upper low over northern New Mexico, strong cold
advection aloft continues with it. Slight chance of mountain
showers continues but available moisture is much less than today.
Gusty northwest winds will continue behind the front, making the
day feel a bit blustery. Highs will cool about 15-20 degrees from
today, or about 10-15 degrees below normal. A secondary back door
front will push in Saturday night to reinforce the chilly
airmass. This last push will bring snow levels down over the
Sacramento Mountains, to perhaps as low as 7000 ft late Saturday
night. Places like Cloudcroft and Sunspot could receive an inch or
two before precip ends early Sunday morning.

Sunday and the rest of the forecast period...upper low moves off
over the central Plains as broad upper high moves in over the
eastern Pacific and west coast. This will keep us in a dry
northwest flow. Very few clouds expected with this pattern and
temperatures will warm back up above normal by Monday. Both GFS
and ECMWF show a backdoor front moving into the eastern CWA
Wednesday morning. Went ahead and put some clouds and slight
chance of precip over the east and central Sac Mtns with upslope
conditions. Front doesn`t look particularly cold, so snow not
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/12Z-29/12Z...
P6SM SCT150 SCT-BKN250 through period. Developing aft 18Z, mainly
over the mountains...widely scattered -SHRA BKN110. Btwn 18Z and
00Z and isold -TSRA with small hail is also possible in these same
areas.

Winds...West 7-12 kts through 17Z. Some stronger gusts to 25 kts
along east slopes of terrain through 14Z. After 17Z winds
increasing to 25-30 kts with gusts to 45 kts, with 3-5SM BLDU btwn
19Z-01Z across desert areas. A few vsbys could drop to less than
1SM in dust prone areas mainly from Deming west and south. Winds
will diminish some after 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY UNTIL 7 PM MDT FOR ZONES
55/56/112...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 111 SATURDAY...

Strong west winds will return this afternoon to the fire zones
along with lowland blowing dust. RHs today remain in the 10 to 15
percent range across Far West Texas and parts of South Central New
Mexico, so Red Flag Warning will be issued shortly. Upper low over
the central Rockies will drop south to New Mexico tonight and
Saturday, giving the mountain zones a slight chance of showers or
thunderstorms. Brisk northwest winds will continue Saturday,
prompting a Fire Weather Watch for SW New Mexico where moisture
will be at its least. A few showers could continue over the
mountain zones, and by Saturday night, with the coolest air in
place, the Sacramento Mountains could see an inch or two of snow.
Dry and warm conditions will begin to return to the zones Sunday
into much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 86  61  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           89  57  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              84  52  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              85  52  61  38 /  20  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              55  32  39  25 /  30  40  30  30
Truth or Consequences   82  47  58  37 /  20  20  20  20
Silver City             71  41  55  34 /  20  20  10   0
Deming                  84  48  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               82  48  64  39 /   0  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro      86  60  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               88  57  69  37 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock            91  60  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              80  54  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  88  60  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            85  56  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          85  56  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           85  47  62  34 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                   86  48  64  37 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                86  54  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               87  55  64  40 /   0  10   0  10
Mayhill                 69  37  48  27 /  30  40  30  30
Mescalero               68  37  47  27 /  30  40  30  30
Timberon                67  38  48  27 /  30  40  30  20
Winston                 72  31  53  27 /  30  30  20  20
Hillsboro               76  42  57  34 /  20  20  20  10
Spaceport               84  44  60  33 /  10  10  20  20
Lake Roberts            74  35  55  30 /  30  30  20  10
Hurley                  73  41  58  34 /  10  10  10   0
Cliff                   76  39  62  36 /  30  20  20   0
Mule Creek              74  39  59  37 /  30  20  10   0
Faywood                 75  42  58  35 /  10  10  10   0
Animas                  84  48  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 84  47  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          84  49  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              75  46  60  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blowing Dust Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for NMZ403>407-411>413-417.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM MDT Saturday for
     NMZ413.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for NMZ401>412-414>417.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NMZ111.

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for TXZ418>424.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM MDT Saturday for
     TXZ419.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for TXZ418-420>424.

&&

$$

17 Hefner



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