Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031947
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
147 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SOME SPOTS FINALLY REACHING 90 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE BY FRIDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED AFTERNOON
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER REMAINS PLEASANT ACROSS MOST OF THE BORDERLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A QUICK LOOK AT IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS AS THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE A RENEWED EAST PUSH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER WINDS IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS SUCH AS ALONG THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS.

THIS EAST PUSH WILL NOT BE BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR COOLER AIR. AS SUCH WE WILL SEE A QUICK WARM
UP WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY AND MORE SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING OUR
FIRST 90 DEGREE READINGS OF THE SEASON. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
ALSO TRANSPORT IN JUST A BIT OF EXTRA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW
POINTS INCREASING TO AROUND AROUND 40 F BRIEFLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY THURSDAY
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH SB CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND LI OF
-1C TO -2C AS THE AFTERNOON HEATS UP. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING PAST IN
ADVANCE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE COMING ASHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND THE SAME TIME.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SLOWLY EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED GRADIENTS AND STRONGER WINDS. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM.
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND WINDY WITH AN INCREASED FIRE THREAT
FOR THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND A PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...04/00Z-05/00Z.
P6SM SKC-FEW120-150 THRU PD. NE WINDS THRU 12Z AOB 12KTS EXCEPT
AROUND KDMN AND WRN MTN SLOPES WHERE SPEEDS OF 10-20KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E TO SE AFT 12Z FM 8-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FAR WEST THU AND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE FRIDAY WHERE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE ROCKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL DAYS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BESIDES A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH AND ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  85  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           53  82  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              51  83  56  88 /   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              48  83  51  88 /   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              37  60  43  65 /  10   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  82  53  87 /   0   0   0  20
SILVER CITY             46  80  54  83 /   0   0   0  20
DEMING                  51  83  53  88 /   0   0   0  20
LORDSBURG               50  85  56  90 /   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  84  62  89 /   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               46  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  86  57  89 /   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              53  80  57  84 /   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  55  86  61  88 /   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            52  83  57  88 /   0   0   0  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  83  58  88 /   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           43  84  49  88 /   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   46  86  50  91 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBUS                51  85  56  90 /   0   0   0  20
OROGRANDE               54  84  55  88 /   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 41  69  44  75 /  10   0   0  10
MESCALERO               41  71  44  76 /  10   0   0  10
TIMBERON                40  69  43  73 /  10   0   0  10
WINSTON                 37  74  43  79 /  10   0   0  20
HILLSBORO               47  80  52  84 /   0   0   0  20
SPACEPORT               46  83  51  88 /   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            36  79  46  81 /  10   0   0  20
HURLEY                  47  79  52  83 /   0   0   0  20
CLIFF                   38  85  49  87 /   0   0   0  20
MULE CREEK              40  84  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  80  53  85 /   0   0   0  20
ANIMAS                  50  85  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 49  85  55  90 /   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  85  58  88 /   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              50  85  56  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/GRZYWACZ


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