Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032123
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
323 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FORM THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN PUSHING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO JUST
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH
DRIFTS BACK EAST OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
WETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
RETURN TO ALL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG DRYING SLOT EDGING INTO THE NORTHWEST
CWA. THIS DRY/MOIST BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA-GILA
WILDERNESS-RATON AND THEN UP INTO A CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
UTAH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST TONIGHT AS UPPER
HIGH WEST OF THE BAJA CREATES A DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW. AIRMASS
REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE TONIGHT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DRY/MOIST BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE...AS IT
MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL INITIATION AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WITH
PW`S AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...FLOODING WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION AS
UPPER HIGH SLOWLY MAKES IT`S WAY EAST AND MOISTURE PLUME MOVES
EAST AND/OR DISSIPATES. PW`S DROP FROM ABOUT 1.4" TONIGHT TO
AROUND 0.80 - 0.90 INCHES BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AND UPPER HIGH
CENTER SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD...BOTH NOT GOOD INGREDIENTS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTION. WILL LIMIT POPS TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THIS PERIOD. WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD SHOOT BACK UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS SO UPPER FLOW REVERTS BACK TO A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW
WHICH GRADUALLY INCREASES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. NOT LOOKING
LIKE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BUT SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO INSERT LOW POPS BACK IN ALL ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. SOME DRYING
AND WARMING ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERAL
CONDITIONS: FEW- SCT070-090 SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250. ISOLD
VRB25G37KT 4SM -TSRA BKN060CB BKN100 OVC200 00Z-06Z. MAX TOPS
400-450. SFC WINDS 00-18Z W-WNW 5-10KTS AFT 18Z: NW-NE 5-10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE TODAY AS AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HOTTER (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS)
WEATHER ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND AND ONLY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED
TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUNDERSTORM MAY INCREASE AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWS BACK INTO THE REGION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 74 101  75 103 /  30   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  98  71  99 /  30   0  10   0
LAS CRUCES              68  98  70 101 /  30   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              70 100  70 103 /  30   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  76  54  78 /  30  20  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  98  69 100 /  20   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             62  89  64  91 /  20  10   0  10
DEMING                  69 100  70 101 /  20   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               68  99  67 100 /  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      73 101  74 104 /  30   0   0   0
DELL CITY               71 100  72 102 /  30   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            71 103  72 103 /  30   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              69  93  71  96 /  30   0   0   0
FABENS                  71 103  72 103 /  30   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            71  99  72 102 /  30   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          71 100  72 102 /  30   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           68  99  70 102 /  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   68  98  70 103 /  20   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                69  99  70 101 /  20   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               71  99  72 102 /  30   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 58  85  60  87 /  30  20  10  20
MESCALERO               56  85  58  87 /  30  20   0  20
TIMBERON                58  85  61  88 /  30  20  10  20
WINSTON                 58  88  60  89 /  20  20   0  20
HILLSBORO               64  94  67  97 /  20  10   0  10
SPACEPORT               68  98  70 101 /  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  89  58  91 /  20  20   0  10
HURLEY                  63  91  65  94 /  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   59  97  61  98 /  20  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              57  93  59  94 /  20  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 64  92  66  94 /  20   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  68  98  67  99 /  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 68  99  68 100 /  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          66  94  66  96 /  20   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              64  89  65  92 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/NOVLAN


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