Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222025
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
225 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will bounce around between 10 degrees above normal to
10 degrees below normal for the upcoming week. Temps rebound for
Monday but fall back down into the upper 60s to lower 70s
Tuesday. Gradual rebound for Wednesday and Thursday before
stronger front moves in for end of the week. Occasional breezy to
windy conditions will occur on back side of each cold front. Dry
conditions will continue except possibly some showers possible in
the Sacramento Mountains on Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Same basic pattern will persist across the region for the upcoming
week with mean ridge near west coast and large trough over the
eastern CONUS. CWA will be in the middle with series of
disturbances moving down west side of trough and bringing a
typical fall temperature profile that goes up and down every
couple days. After a little cool down today, should see temps
rebound back into the lower to mid 80s lowlands Monday before
another back door cold front moves through Tuesday morning. Could
see near advisory level winds on western mountain slopes behind
front. Temps will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday
with breezy east winds continuing.

Temperatures slowly rebound back into upper 70s to mid 80s by
Thursday before stronger cold front approaches. Models in decent
agreement until this point. There has been some bouncing around
with timing and strength of front for Friday among models. GFS has
trended cooler on last couple runs while latest ECMWF has made a
trend toward a further east trough and warmer temperatures as they
start compromising, but H85 temps still differ by about 8C around
KELP at 00Z Sat. Given time of the year and main trough remaining
east, will go on warmer side of guidance, but this will still be a
10 to 20 degree drop from Thursday for highs. Also a small chance
for some rain or even snow chances in the Sacramento Mountains
Friday but just went with 10-15 pops for now. Looks like east
winds will remain strong enough Friday night that lows in most
lowland locations will remain above freezing. Saturday should see
coolest temps in quite awhile with highs mainly in the lower to
mid 60s. Coldest night may end up being Sunday morning as winds
decrease and allows temps to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Besides small chance for showers Friday, dry conditions will
continue through upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z...
VFR conditions to continue with P6SM SKC through period. Winds will
remain light at speeds below 10 knots generally from the north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry northerly flow will continue over the region Monday as temps
warm back to above normal. This will result in another day of Min RH
values below 15 percent for all but the higher terrain of the
Sacramento mountains. Vent categories should improve a bit for areas
along the Rio Grande and across the Gila with additional improvement
Tuesday as winds increase. This increase in east winds will be the
result of a back door from Monday night. Temps will drop to below
normal Tuesday but the area will remain dry.

Temps moderate through Thursday before another back door front
results in additional cooling Friday and Saturday. In addition
northeastern fire zones will also have a slight chance for
precipitation late Friday and into Saturday with a chance for a
rain/snow mix at the highest of elevations across the Sacramentos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 48  84  53  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           47  82  48  66 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              43  82  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              43  81  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              40  63  30  50 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   45  80  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             44  81  44  66 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  41  83  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               44  85  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      48  84  53  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               43  83  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            45  85  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              45  78  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  44  84  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            46  83  53  69 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          45  82  51  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           40  82  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   44  84  48  70 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                42  84  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               46  82  49  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 44  72  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               43  72  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                40  70  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 35  75  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               41  82  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               40  82  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            30  77  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  38  80  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   34  85  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              31  83  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 45  84  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  42  85  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 44  83  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          43  82  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              44  81  48  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/27



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