Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT INVADES
THE BORDERLAND LATER NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE COOL DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EASTERLY WINDS HAVE SUSTAINED INFLOW OF COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RUNNING LOWER THAN EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
CAUSING STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WITH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
HOPEFULLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SUNDAY TO SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION.

THINGS BECOME EVEN MORE COMPLEX ON MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS
TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW FORMS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BOTH SUSTAIN WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY AND ALSO ADVECT ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT
AROUND .75 INCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT UPPER WAVE TO EJECT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL GENERATE INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE RAIN WILL FALL MOST LOCATIONS
ON MONDAY BUT COOLING WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND
7000 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUSTAINING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THUS EXPECT THREAT OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWS TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES DUE TO PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AFTER TUESDAY. THE GFS
SWEEPS THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER BUT
DRIER AIR SUBSEQUENTLY FLOWING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. IN
STARK CONTRAST THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AN ALMOST STATIONARY CLOSED LOW
OVER ARIZONA DURING THIS WHILE WHILE MUCH COLDER SURFACE AIR
INTRUDES FROM THE EAST. THUS THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS CONSIDERABLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A HIGH THREAT OF SNOW LATER
PERIODS. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION AS IT
AGREES WITH THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT PLUS THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS AND
CANADIAN MODEL ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS. SO EXPECT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY WEATHER
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN050-070 BKN250 THRU 03Z WITH W TO SW WINDS OF
15-20G30KTS. AFT 03Z...FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN250 WITH S TO SW WINDS
AOB 12KTS. AFT 18Z FEW-SCT060-080 SCT250 WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SW 08-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OCCASIONAL BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT CRITICAL CONDITIONS DO NOT DEVELOP. THE
UPPER LOW MENTIONED EARLIER WILL START TO KICK OUT OF THE BAJA
REGION LATE MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR GENERALLY RAIN SHOWERS
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 45  73  49  71  51 /   0   0   0  20  40
SIERRA BLANCA           39  71  46  70  51 /   0   0   0  10  30
LAS CRUCES              39  70  45  67  43 /   0   0   0  20  40
ALAMOGORDO              40  68  44  66  45 /   0   0   0  20  40
CLOUDCROFT              30  49  32  47  30 /   0   0  10  30  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   41  64  42  63  42 /   0   0   0  20  30
SILVER CITY             37  56  39  56  34 /  20  20  20  40  60
DEMING                  38  67  41  65  41 /   0   0   0  30  40
LORDSBURG               37  64  40  64  38 /   0   0  10  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      47  72  50  70  50 /   0   0   0  20  40
DELL CITY               35  71  41  70  46 /   0   0   0  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            42  75  48  74  53 /   0   0   0  20  30
LOMA LINDA              43  65  46  65  47 /   0   0   0  20  30
FABENS                  42  75  47  72  51 /   0   0   0  20  40
SANTA TERESA            42  71  47  69  47 /   0   0   0  20  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          43  68  47  67  48 /   0   0   0  20  40
JORNADA RANGE           36  67  39  66  41 /   0   0   0  20  40
HATCH                   39  68  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  20  30
COLUMBUS                42  67  46  66  45 /   0   0   0  20  30
OROGRANDE               43  70  47  69  48 /   0   0   0  20  40
MAYHILL                 34  57  36  56  36 /   0   0  10  30  60
MESCALERO               31  56  33  55  33 /   0   0  10  30  60
TIMBERON                34  56  37  56  37 /   0   0  10  30  60
WINSTON                 37  56  38  57  35 /  20  10  10  40  50
HILLSBORO               41  61  42  61  40 /  10   0   0  30  40
SPACEPORT               36  67  40  65  40 /   0   0   0  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            35  55  36  54  33 /  30  20  20  50  60
HURLEY                  37  59  39  59  36 /  20   0  10  40  50
CLIFF                   37  62  38  61  35 /  30  20  10  40  50
MULE CREEK              31  58  33  57  29 /  30  20  20  40  50
FAYWOOD                 39  59  42  60  38 /  10   0   0  30  40
ANIMAS                  39  65  43  66  40 /   0   0  10  30  60
HACHITA                 38  67  42  67  40 /   0   0   0  30  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          39  67  43  67  42 /   0   0  10  30  60
CLOVERDALE              39  63  43  64  39 /   0   0  10  30  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH



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