Area Forecast Discussion
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304
FXUS64 KEPZ 121120
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE BORDERLAND IS EXPECTED TODAY. A WARMING
TREND CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL COOL US DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY. AFTER THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH REESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION. THUS LEADING TO WARM
TEMPERATURES... LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THIS HAS LED TO A WARMING TREND ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL START TO
FLATTEN AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS PRETTY DRY...
THEREFORE NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY
CAUSE A SHIFT ON OUR SURFACE WIND PATTERNS THAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE LAST FEW DAYS.

BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA AS
IT MOVES EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IMPLIES THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR THE PAPAL VISIT NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK... A WARM... MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL START REACHING THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST... BUT THERE IS LITTLE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF PAST FRIDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS DRY
FORECAST. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES... BECAUSE LOCAL EFFECTS MAY BE TRIGGER FOR THE
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 12/12Z-13/12Z
VFR CONDS P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE E TO SE 5-10KTS IN THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP VENT
RATES POOR TO FAIR THROUGH WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS FOR NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH JUST POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTER A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN EVERYTHING WILL GO BACK TO THE CONDITIONS WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN THE PAST FEW DAYS... UNTIL A WARM AIR
MASS BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 74  40  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           73  37  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              72  34  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              72  35  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  30  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  36  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             70  33  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  74  32  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               74  31  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               74  33  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            75  38  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              71  40  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  74  36  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            73  35  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           72  31  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   74  33  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                74  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               72  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               65  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  35  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 69  33  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               72  33  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               73  33  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  24  70  27 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  71  31  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   74  25  75  27 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              74  25  75  27 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 71  32  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  76  32  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 75  30  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          74  32  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              75  34  76  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

CRESPO/BRICE



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