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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230902
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
302 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
One last day of excessive heat across the Borderland with this
current heat wave. High pressure will keep temperatures well above
normal with lowland temperatures in the 105 to 110 range. The area
will be drier today, so most locations will not see any rain or
storms. Tonight brings very different weather for the weekend and
next week as a push from the east brings both cooler and wetter
air back into the area. Temperatures for the weekend will drop
back to seasonal normals as chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms
expected this weekend and early next week. Some of these storm
could bring damaging hail, gusty winds, and flooding rains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Our current heat wave is on it`s last gasp as today will mark the
last day of triple-digit heat for at least the next 5-6 days. The
upper ridge remains over the region as surface trophing remains
to the east. This means more warmth and more drying today.
Yesterday showed a marked decrease in pcpn/storms and today will
continue the downward trend with most locations becoming too dry
to be unstable enough to initiate any pcpn. Heat advisory remains
in effect through today, and has been truncated to eliminate SAT.

Big changes arrive this evening and overnight as a strong backdoor
front pushes in from the plains to our east. This push should
bring some breezy/gusty/windy west slope/gap winds to the region
overnight tonight and Saturday. High pressure aloft remains over
the SW U.S. but at low levels a healthy dose of cooler and more
moist air invades from the east and lingers a while over the
forecast area. Today`s moisture should drop with PWs down near
1/2" and dewpoints in the 20s-30s. Those numbers will spike
sharply to over 1" and 50s-60s respectively. Models have no
problem adding big POPs back in the forecast...especially for
Saturday night through Sunday when the moisture is forecast at
it`s peak for this event.

With abundant moisture in the airmass, instability will also
spike for SAT and SUN. CAPES in the 1500-2000 J/kg range and LIs
in the -3 to -5 range. PWs will be near 1.25" and surface
dewpoints proged around 60. Deep convection will introduce
potential for severe weather threats. Moderate to large hail is
possible. DCAPEs are down, but still large (~1000J/kg) so some
storms may produce strong outflow winds. Also storm motions are
not impressive so heavy rain and flash flooding is a real
likelihood.

Thermal troughing at the surface to our west will keep the SE
ingest of gulf moisture into the region through at least Wednesday
of next week. High pressure aloft will keep winds generally light,
so despite some deeper westerly flow around mid-week, moisture
will be slow to diminish with no good flushing mechanism. Thus
shower/storm chance continue trough mid week.

By Thur/Fri, after a few days of eroding moisture, the region
should begin to see diminishing storm coverage and warming
temperatures with potential to see triple-digit heat again.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/12Z-24/12Z...
VFR conditions with SKC to FEW-SCT 100-140 200-250. ISOLD CB/TSTM
PSBL OVR SACS aft 19Z. Winds turning from NW to N and even NE
through the PD. Speeds 5G15kts through 01Z. AFT 06Z BCMG E-SE E
of Rio Grande and increasing to 15-25kts with FROPA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft will remain over Arizona and New Mexico through
the remainder of the week. Daytime max temperatures will be near
record levels today with a short-lived drying trend which will
significantly reduce storms today...and likely limit them to the
Sacramento mountains. Big changes begin this evening as a
east push brings cooler air and a moisture increase to the region
tonight and Saturday. Temperatures will drop pack to normal for
the weekend and most of next week as east winds and increasing
moisture bring substantial storm chances to the region for the
weekend which will continue through Wednesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                108  76  93  74 /   0   0  20  40
Sierra Blanca          106  72  89  69 /  10   0  20  30
Las Cruces             106  74  93  70 /   0   0  30  40
Alamogordo             106  70  89  68 /   0   0  30  40
Cloudcroft              82  54  67  52 /  20  20  50  60
Truth or Consequences  105  73  93  70 /   0   0  40  40
Silver City            100  69  92  66 /   0  10  50  40
Deming                 107  72  95  70 /   0   0  20  30
Lordsburg              107  73 100  72 /   0   0  20  30
West El Paso Metro     107  76  93  74 /   0   0  20  40
Dell City              108  69  90  67 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Hancock           109  74  93  72 /   0   0  20  40
Loma Linda             103  72  87  68 /   0  10  30  50
Fabens                 109  75  93  73 /   0   0  20  40
Santa Teresa           107  76  93  71 /   0   0  20  40
White Sands HQ         106  75  91  73 /   0   0  30  40
Jornada Range          106  70  91  67 /   0   0  30  40
Hatch                  107  72  94  69 /   0   0  30  40
Columbus               108  75  97  73 /   0   0  20  30
Orogrande              107  74  91  71 /   0   0  30  40
Mayhill                 91  57  74  56 /  20  20  50  50
Mescalero               93  57  76  56 /  20  20  50  50
Timberon                91  58  75  55 /  20  20  50  50
Winston                 96  60  87  60 /   0  20  60  50
Hillsboro              101  68  90  64 /   0  20  60  50
Spaceport              106  70  92  65 /   0   0  30  40
Lake Roberts            98  58  90  58 /   0  20  60  50
Hurley                 103  68  93  66 /   0   0  40  40
Cliff                  107  68  99  65 /   0   0  40  30
Mule Creek             105  71  97  68 /   0   0  20  30
Faywood                103  68  90  65 /   0  10  40  50
Animas                 109  74 101  72 /   0   0  20  30
Hachita                107  72  99  71 /   0   0  20  30
Antelope Wells         107  73  99  72 /   0   0  20  30
Cloverdale             105  72  97  71 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ404>407-409>413-
     417.

TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14-Bird



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