Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231938
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
138 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico
and west Texas while weak surface fronts and upper disturbances
move into the region. This weather pattern will bring  isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Borderland through
early next week. Temperatures will remain near or a little below
normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Slow moving upper trough axis was located over central Arizona
early this afternoon with the southwest flow ahead of it advecting
drier air aloft into the region per water vapor images. At lower
levels a lee cyclone was located over western Kansas with
trailing trough axis extending into south central New Mexico. This
weather pattern is causing a deep westerly wind component with
inflow of drier air. The upper trough is expected to move eastward
across New Mexico and west Texas tonight and Wednesday providing
dynamic upward forcing across the cwa. However this will concur
with further transport of drier more stable air so overall result
will be isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity through
Wednesday with most of the storms occurring over the higher
mountains and east of the rio grande where moisture will be
deepest.

Late Wednesday night and Thursday a weak cold front will move to
the southwest through the cwa. High pressure behind the front
combined with large surface trough west of the divide will
induce mostly east to to southeast winds at low levels with
attendant moisture transport sustaining surface dewpoints above 50
F into early next week along with precipitable water amounts
mostly above an inch. Lifting mechanisms will include weak
impulses/short waves aloft plus upslope flow over the higher
terrain so this weather pattern should generate mainly scattered
storm coverage through the weekend.

After Sunday storm coverage may diminish as high pressure aloft
builds over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z.
Upper low is crawling towards the Four Corners with a dry slot
impinging on western New Mexico.  The dry and more stable airmass
extends roughly as far east as the Rio Grande.  Still expect
thunderstorms to develop over areas east of the Rio Grande this
afternoon/evening...likely initiating over the higher terrain across
the border and moving NNE...then with additional isolated storms
firing on a surface trough/wind shift line that`s stalled out along
the Rio Grande.  KELP will be right on the edge of where
thunderstorms are most likely.  Risk seemed high enough to warrant
VCTS, but no TEMPO groups yet.

An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible in the higher
terrain west of the surface trough...especially over the Black Range
and NM Bootheel.  Storm motions would favor storms moving into TCS
and DMN areas...but the overall risk is pretty low.

Stable air will overspread the area tomorrow (Wed), limiting
thunderstorms to isolated and mostly terrain-based.  Thunderstorm
chances increase later in the week with more of a typical summer
pattern with  weak forcing and storms initiating on higher terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier and more stable air aloft has worked into SW New Mexico, and
as result we expect most thunderstorm activity today to be focused
east of the Rio Grande, with just an isolated storm over the Gila
and NM Boot Heel regions. The more stable air will overspread the
area tomorrow, but we will still see isolated to scattered
thunderstorms in the higher terrain. Conditions will become more
"summer/monsoon-like" towards the end of the week with weak upper
level forcing and terrain-based thunderstorms working into the
lowlands. Even with the quieter period, afternoon Minimum RH values
will remain in the 25 to 45 percent range (lowlands to higher
terrain) with excellent overnight recovery. Light winds will
prevail, with westerlies working into SW New Mexico, and S to SE
east of the Rio Grande.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 68  90  67  86 /  40  20  20  30
Sierra Blanca           64  85  63  81 /  40  40  20  50
Las Cruces              61  89  61  84 /  30  10  20  30
Alamogordo              62  88  62  84 /  40  20  20  40
Cloudcroft              48  68  47  63 /  40  30  40  60
Truth or Consequences   60  86  61  83 /  30  20  20  30
Silver City             55  83  56  80 /  20  40  10  60
Deming                  61  91  62  87 /  20   0  10  20
Lordsburg               61  91  62  89 /  20   0  10  20
West El Paso Metro      67  90  67  86 /  40  20  20  30
Dell City               63  89  63  84 /  40  40  10  50
Fort Hancock            67  90  66  86 /  40  30  10  40
Loma Linda              62  84  61  80 /  40  20  20  30
Fabens                  66  91  65  86 /  40  20  20  30
Santa Teresa            65  90  65  85 /  30  10  20  30
White Sands HQ          64  88  64  83 /  30  20  20  30
Jornada Range           60  87  60  84 /  30  20  20  30
Hatch                   61  88  62  85 /  30  10  20  20
Columbus                64  92  63  87 /  30   0  10  20
Orogrande               64  87  64  83 /  40  20  20  30
Mayhill                 51  74  50  69 /  40  40  30  60
Mescalero               52  77  50  72 /  40  30  30  60
Timberon                49  74  49  70 /  40  30  30  60
Winston                 50  80  50  77 /  30  40  30  60
Hillsboro               57  85  58  81 /  30  40  30  60
Spaceport               59  87  60  83 /  30  20  20  20
Lake Roberts            50  82  51  81 /  30  40  20  60
Hurley                  56  85  56  82 /  20  10  20  50
Cliff                   57  89  58  87 /  20  40  20  50
Mule Creek              54  86  55  84 /  10  30  20  40
Faywood                 57  87  58  84 /  20  20  20  50
Animas                  59  91  60  89 /  10  10  10  30
Hachita                 60  92  61  88 /  20   0  10  20
Antelope Wells          61  89  61  87 /  20  10  20  30
Cloverdale              59  85  60  83 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Hardiman



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.