Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262130
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
330 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture will continue to stream northward over the
Borderland the next several days. A chance of rain will continue
through Tuesday, and then with instability increasing, isolated
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Friday. Cool fall
temperatures on Tuesday will gradually warm back to near normal
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV imagery showing upper low now over the central Baja with decent
moisture feed from Tropical Storm Roslyn. PW`s range from about
.70 to .90 across the CWA, so not abundant moisture. Moisture and
stable airmass has created widespread cloudiness, but only a few
areas of light rain are falling. This moisture feed will continue
through Friday. For tonight and Tuesday, cool airmass will persist
with stable airmass not permitting any thunderstorms. For this
period continue scattered showers but had lessened QPF around the
area. Some wind gusts along west slope continuing this evening.
HRRR showing some brief increase again tonight along west slopes
as inversion develops but don`t expect wind advisory levels.

Models showing some warming back to near normal Wednesday through
Friday, so instability increases. Isolated thunderstorms a good
bet all 3 days. Shear profile also begins increasing Thursday and
is more widespread on Friday, so can`t rule out a few
thunderstorms approaching severe (perhaps concentrated west on
Thursday and east on Friday).

Much drier southwest flow kicks in Saturday and Sunday with
approaching Pacific trough moving onshore. Trough reaching the
area Monday and Tuesday may lead to windy days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/00Z-28/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN060-080 with isolated -SHRA BKN050-070 through 12Z then
clouds breaking up to FEW-SCT060-080. Winds generally E to SE
5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper low currently over the Baja region will be weakening over the
coming days as upper ridge builds over the western plains. This will
keep a southerly upper level flow over area with southeast surface
winds keeping moisture in place.  Best precipitation chances through
midweek will remain west of the Rio Grande with a push to the east
possible Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will begin warming
Tuesday and be near normal by Wednesday through the weekend.
Relative humidities will remain above 20 percent through the week
but start to drop over the weekend as westerly flow brings in much
drier air.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 53  74  58  81 /  30  20  10  20
Sierra Blanca           51  68  53  78 /  30  20  10  10
Las Cruces              50  74  53  79 /  30  20  20  20
Alamogordo              49  77  54  80 /  30  20  10  20
Cloudcroft              38  57  40  64 /  30  20  20  20
Truth or Consequences   49  74  51  77 /  30  20  20  20
Silver City             48  70  51  73 /  30  30  30  30
Deming                  48  74  51  78 /  30  20  20  20
Lordsburg               51  72  52  78 /  30  30  20  30
West El Paso Metro      53  74  57  80 /  30  20  10  20
Dell City               50  71  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Hancock            52  74  58  81 /  30  20  20  20
Loma Linda              46  67  53  78 /  30  20  10  20
Fabens                  51  74  56  81 /  30  20  20  20
Santa Teresa            51  74  54  80 /  30  20  10  20
White Sands HQ          52  75  55  79 /  30  20  10  20
Jornada Range           47  76  51  80 /  30  20  10  20
Hatch                   52  74  54  79 /  30  20  20  20
Columbus                52  74  54  79 /  30  20  20  20
Orogrande               52  75  56  81 /  30  20  10  20
Mayhill                 41  62  43  71 /  30  20  10  20
Mescalero               40  66  42  73 /  30  20  20  20
Timberon                40  63  42  71 /  30  20  20  20
Winston                 41  69  44  75 /  30  30  20  30
Hillsboro               45  72  50  77 /  30  20  20  30
Spaceport               48  75  52  78 /  30  20  20  20
Lake Roberts            40  71  47  75 /  30  40  20  30
Hurley                  47  71  50  75 /  30  30  20  30
Cliff                   47  72  48  78 /  30  40  30  30
Mule Creek              44  72  46  76 /  30  40  30  30
Faywood                 45  72  50  76 /  30  30  20  30
Animas                  49  74  50  79 /  40  30  20  30
Hachita                 46  73  50  78 /  40  30  20  30
Antelope Wells          47  72  51  78 /  40  30  20  30
Cloverdale              46  68  50  76 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Grzywacz



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