Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192156
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
256 PM MST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low pressure system with a cold front will affect southern
New Mexico and west Texas Saturday and Sunday by causing windy
conditions across the Borderland along with lowland rain showers
and mountain snows. In addition cooler temperatures will occur
behind the cold front Sunday and Monday. High pressure aloft
followed by westerly winds will result in warmer temperatures and
dry weather Tuesday through next Friday. However another
approaching storm may bring windy conditions back next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Deep upper trough was approaching the California coast early this
afternoon with west to southwest flow ahead of it advecting milder
dry air into New Mexico and west Texas. Downslope winds have also
supported lee cyclone formation over Colorado with associated
surface trough extending into eastern New Mexico.

Upper trough will maintain its intensity as it moves across the
Great Basin into Arizona on Saturday. Continued downslope winds
and increasing dynamics will cause lee cyclone to further deepen
with low and mid level gradients increasing. Thus windy conditions
will develop over western zones Saturday afternoon. The southwest
winds will also push Saturday high temperatures up around 10
degrees above normal.

An attendant and rather strong Pacific cold front will enter
western New Mexico early Saturday evening with boundary moving
across the remainder of the CWA before 9 UTC Sunday. Meanwhile the
upper trough will enter western New Mexico also around 9 UTC and
move eastward across the CWA through 18 UTC. Gradient will be
quite strong at low and mid levels with 700 mb winds increasing to
around 60 kt Saturday while deep lee cyclone and trough remain
almost stationary to the northeast and east. This scenario should
generate strong winds over much of the central and eastern
portions of the CWA Saturday night into Sunday.

Low level uplift along the front plus strong upward dynamic
forcing ahead of the trough will prove sufficient to induce
precipitation despite only modest amounts of moisture. Cold air
advection behind the front plus dynamic cooling aloft will cause
snow levels to lower Saturday night/Sunday morning with possible
snow amounts up to 3 inches above 7000 feet. Portions of the lower
elevations may even experience snowfall early Sunday morning but
amounts will be very light with no significant accumulations.

Subsiding northwest flow behind the upper trough will bring dry
weather on Sunday with cold air advection lowering Sunday and
Monday high temperatures to around 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Continued strong gradients will sustain windy conditions through
early Sunday afternoon before speeds diminish toward evening.

High pressure aloft followed by westerly winds will cause warmer
dry weather Tuesday through next Friday. Longer range models
indicate another upper low approaching from the west and
associated lee cyclogenesis to the northeast may generate windy
conditions Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites.  Wx thru Sat 18Z: SCT-
BKN250 with sfc winds SW 5-10 KTS> Fairly Strong Pacific frontal
system and upper air trof will start to affect the area starling
over WSW NM Sat aftn and moving east into the rest of the area by
Sunday morning. SCT-BKN 060 100 200 by 00Z Sun.Isold to Sct SHRA W
of the continental divide with BKN040 6SM.  WINDS SW 5-10 KTS INCRG
TO 12G23KT AFT 18Z. INCRG CLDS AND PRECIP SPREADING EWD INTO SAT
EVEN WITH -SHSN ABV 6K MSL. TURBC BECOMING MDT OVR AND NR HIR
TERRAIN NY 00Z SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The rest of Friday afternoon will be dry, mostly sunny, and warmer.
Winds will remain light and shift to the southwest by afternoon. A
Pacific storm system will track through the state Saturday night and
early Sunday morning. Strong westerly winds will occur with this
system Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The strongest
gusts will be along the east slopes of area mountains. This system
will also generate a chance of lowland rain and mountain snow
showers. Amounts overall will be light with a potential for 1 to 2
inches of snow in the mountains above 6000 feet. Winds will remain
strong on Sunday with drying conditions with much cooler
temperatures. Next week will be relatively quiet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 37  69  39  53 /   0   0  20   0
Sierra Blanca           35  70  35  52 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces              34  66  33  51 /   0   0  20   0
Alamogordo              33  65  34  51 /   0   0  20   0
Cloudcroft              30  50  19  32 /   0   0  40   0
Truth or Consequences   33  64  32  51 /   0   0  20   0
Silver City             35  56  26  43 /   0  20  60   0
Deming                  32  66  30  51 /   0   0  30   0
Lordsburg               33  63  26  48 /   0   0  40   0
West El Paso Metro      40  68  41  52 /   0   0  20   0
Dell City               29  70  29  54 /   0   0  20   0
Fort Hancock            35  74  36  57 /   0   0  20   0
Loma Linda              38  64  34  48 /   0   0  20   0
Fabens                  35  71  36  55 /   0   0  20   0
Santa Teresa            34  68  35  52 /   0   0  20   0
White Sands HQ          37  67  37  52 /   0   0  20   0
Jornada Range           31  66  28  51 /   0   0  20   0
Hatch                   32  66  29  53 /   0   0  20   0
Columbus                36  68  35  51 /   0   0  20   0
Orogrande               34  66  35  52 /   0   0  20   0
Mayhill                 34  60  27  43 /   0   0  40   0
Mescalero               31  57  24  40 /   0   0  40   0
Timberon                30  56  24  40 /   0   0  40   0
Winston                 28  57  22  44 /   0  10  60   0
Hillsboro               32  62  27  49 /   0   0  30   0
Spaceport               30  65  30  51 /   0   0  20   0
Lake Roberts            25  54  17  42 /   0  20  60   0
Hurley                  31  59  23  45 /   0   0  50   0
Cliff                   26  60  19  48 /   0  20  60   0
Mule Creek              34  57  24  46 /   0  20  60   0
Faywood                 34  61  27  47 /   0   0  40   0
Animas                  35  65  28  50 /   0   0  50   0
Hachita                 32  66  29  50 /   0   0  40   0
Antelope Wells          35  66  31  52 /   0   0  50   0
Cloverdale              40  61  31  48 /   0   0  60   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight MST Saturday night
     for NMZ405-406-408.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 5 PM MST Sunday for NMZ411-
     413>416.

     Wind Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 5 PM MST Sunday
     for NMZ417.

TX...Wind Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 5 PM MST Sunday for TXZ418-
     419.

     Wind Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 5 PM MST Sunday
     for TXZ420>424.

&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Novlan



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