Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252131
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
329 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE SEVERAL TROUGHS ALOFT
WILL PUSH ACROSS NEW MEXICO. ONE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS TONIGHT...
GIVING THE MOUNTAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GIVING AREAS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. YET ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS EAST OF EL PASO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY CONSISTENT BUT ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. ON THE
LARGE SCALE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
SEVERAL UPPER TROUGHS EITHER SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND ACROSS THE CWA...OR CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE CWA. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST TROUGH NOW JUST ENTERING NW NEW MEXICO. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS EXTENSIVE CU/TCU NORTH OF A LINE FROM SILVER CITY TO
ALAMOGORDO. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
TIER OF ZONES.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND MOVES TOWARD THE CWA
WEDNESDAY. AS THE FLOW BACKS AROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...THE
DRYLINE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON
DISTANCE DRYLINE IS ABLE TO PENETRATE...GFS BEING MORE BULLISH. FOR
NOW KEPT POPS TO THE CWA EAST OF EL PASO AND LET SOME MORE MODEL
RUNS COME IN BEFORE COMMITTING FURTHER WEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG AS DECENT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS...ALONG WITH
SOME MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING TO END STORM THREAT. HOWEVER
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRAGGING ANOTHER
TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THIS. OLD GFS RUNS HAD KEPT THE
DRYLINE MOISTURE OVER THE FAR EAST. THIS MORNING`S RUN NOW BRINGS
THE DRYLINE WEST ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE POPS
EAST OF EL PASO BUT WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE MODELS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE RUNS TO SEE ANY CONSISTENCY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-27/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WITH NW TO W WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KNOTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
AREA MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS...REDUCED
VISIBILITY  AND STRONG OUT FLOW WINDS COULD OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ISOLATED HIGH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DRY LIGHTING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EASTERN FIRE
WEATHER ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST PASSES THE BORDERLAND. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON FRIDAY BEFORE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO GENERATE
MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MIN RH VALUES TODAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS FOR THE SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONES AND
IN THE 20S TO 30S FOR THE NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONES. TOMORROW MIN
RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  88  62  93  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  85  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  30
LAS CRUCES              51  86  54  91  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              54  85  56  92  57 /  10   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              39  64  43  71  46 /  10   0   0   0  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  84  55  90  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             45  77  48  82  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  48  86  51  91  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  86  52  90  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  88  62  90  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               53  87  57  92  58 /   0   0   0   0  30
FORT HANCOCK            55  89  58  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              54  81  59  88  58 /   0   0   0   0  20
FABENS                  54  88  58  93  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            54  87  57  92  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  85  58  91  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           50  85  51  91  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   50  86  53  92  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  85  56  90  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               56  85  59  91  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 45  71  49  79  51 /  10   0   0   0  40
MESCALERO               43  72  47  79  48 /  10   0   0   0  30
TIMBERON                44  71  48  79  49 /  10   0   0   0  30
WINSTON                 44  76  47  81  47 /  20   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               48  84  51  88  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               49  86  52  91  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  77  46  82  47 /  20   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  44  80  48  84  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  84  45  88  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              39  81  43  85  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  80  50  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  86  52  90  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 48  87  51  92  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          46  87  49  91  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  82  50  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/PAZOS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.