Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 071111
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
411 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another mild day today though a disturbance moving across northern
Mexico could drop a few sprinkles along the International Border
this afternoon. A sharp cold front will push west across the area
tonight. This could produce patchy freezing fog and flurries across
the Sacramento Mountains and some light rain and snow showers over
Hudspeth County. Temperatures on Thursday will cool about 10 to 15
degrees from today. Dry west flow aloft will persist over the
weekend, with temperatures warming back to above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A rather stable large scale weather pattern will persist through
this weekend and into the beginning of next week. In the short,
term, however, some features will need to be watched.

Main pattern shows a long wave trough over much of the U.S., with
our CWA mostly at the bottom of this trough. Considerable
mid/high level moisture sweeping across the area in the west flow.
Models picking up on series of weak short waves moving across
northern Mexico this morning and afternoon. WV imagery shows one
wave the Gulf of California, while a second slightly stronger wave
sits just off the southern California coast. GFS actually blips
out small QPF over the southern zones. Looks like slight lift with
the PVA, along with entrance region of a 80-100 kt jet could
produce a few showers. I left POPS below 10% far southern zones,
but will mention sprinkles/very light showers in zone forecast.
These features should be out of the area this evening about the
same time as out back door cold front moves in.

Aforementioned cold front will push into eastern New Mexico this
afternoon, then to the Sac Mtns around sunset, the Rio Grande
Valley around midnight and then out to western New Mexico later
Thursday morning. Front shows strong cold advection but not much
moisture. Did put POPs in far eastern zones; the Sacs with the
help of upslope flow, and across Hudsepth County where lingering
moisture may over run the frontal boundary. Expect any precip over
Hudspeth to start out as a cold light rain this evening, then
turning into a mix of rain or snow (or all snow) by late tonight.
At this time significant accumulations are not expected. The light
rain/snow could continue into Thursday afternoon before tapering
off. One other item of note will be gusty winds along west slopes
of mountains tonight/Thursday morning with the front. Looks like
winds should remain just below advisory criteria in these spots.
Temperatures look to cool about 10-15 degrees from today.

Remainder of forecast period looks to remain quiet as long wave
trough exits east and dry zonal flow sets up over the CWA.
Temperatures should warm back to above normal Saturday and last
into much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 07/12Z-08/12Z...
P6SM SCT150-180 BKN250 thru pd. West winds btwn 10 to 15 knots
thru 09z then becoming easterly btwn 10 to 15 knots. Wind gusts up
to 30 knots could occur after 09z along west slopes of terrain,due
to cold frontal passage. Aft 06Z over the Sacramento Mtns...ocnl
cigs blo 010 vsbys 3-5SM FZFG. Additionally aft 06Z over Hudspeth
County...ocnl cigs AOB 020 vsbys 3-5SM -SN BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today dry, west to northwest flow will continue over the region.
A slight chance for light rain showers is possible over the
southern and far eastern fire weather zones during the latter part
of the afternoon. Today winds will be between 10 and 15 mph with
min RH values between 35-45%. Wednesday night a cold front will
push through the area dropping temperatures 10-15 degrees below
normal for Thursday and turning winds easterly. Some light rain
and snow is possible overnight across zone 56. By the end of the
week temperatures will begin to warm increase back to normal as
dry southwest flow develops over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 59  36  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           58  30  38  24 /   0  20  10   0
Las Cruces              57  33  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              56  31  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              41  22  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences   55  30  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             50  29  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  57  33  50  23 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               55  30  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      58  38  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               60  28  38  19 /   0  20  20   0
Fort Hancock            62  36  45  25 /   0  10   0   0
Loma Linda              52  30  37  20 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  59  35  46  22 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            58  32  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          57  34  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           58  30  49  18 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   58  32  49  23 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                59  36  52  24 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               58  31  46  22 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 53  17  33  14 /   0  10  10   0
Mescalero               49  19  37  16 /   0  10  10   0
Timberon                48  20  36  16 /   0  10  10   0
Winston                 50  17  47  14 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               57  26  49  18 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               55  31  47  20 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            51  20  51  13 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  53  26  48  18 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   56  21  53  17 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              53  18  50  13 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 55  29  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  58  29  56  22 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 58  30  53  21 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          58  31  56  20 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              52  33  54  23 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Pazos



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