Area Forecast Discussion
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771
FXUS64 KEPZ 192201
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
301 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Our winds and our slight chance for precipitation will move out of
the region tonight and we will start a period of quieter weather
with a slow warming trend through Wednesday. On Thursday signs of
the windy season beginning will show up. We will see strong winds
on Thursday and again late in next weekend. After tomorrow we
will see afternoon high temperatures several degrees above normal
through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The storm system that roared ashore in California on Friday and
brought with it flooding rains and hurricane force wind gusts
certainly has weakened and only provided us with some breezy
winds and light precipitation. This system will push to our east
later tonight and take with it the winds and precipitation
chances. In its wake an upper level ridge will slowly build across
the southwest U.S. This will mean we will see mostly sunny skies
with light winds and a warming trend. By Wednesday our
temperatures will be almost 10 degrees above normal and our upper
level flow will be zonal. On Thursday we will see the beginnings
of our windy season as an upper level short wave trough looks to
pass through the zonal flow and give us pretty windy conditions.
Right now it looks like we will need at least a wind advisory (25
to 35 mph) for most of the day, but we may need a high wind
warning (35 to 45 mph) for a few spots on Thursday afternoon.
Behind that system we will see some slightly cooler air filter
into the region, but temperatures for the end of the week will
still be at, or a a degree or two above normal. For next Friday
and Saturday we will again see our zonal flow slowly transition to
a southwest flow aloft as another storm system approaches the
area. This next system looks stronger and is a little further
south and will likely bring some precipitation chances to area
mountains and another round of strong winds for the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN100-120 with isolated -TSRA BKN030-040 or
1-3SM -SHSN BKN030-040 in Gila region through 03Z.  After 03Z skies
will gradually clear from W to E and expect SKC-FEW200-250 by 12Z.
West winds of 10-20G30KTS will decrease to AOB 12KTS by 03Z expect
remain 10-15G25KTS eastern mountain slopes through sunrise. Winds
will gradually shift around more to the NNW around 10KTS after 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper trough will be moving over the region overnight with gradually
clearing skies.  Temperatures will be warming to near normal Monday
and then go above normal through Thursday.  Winds will be around 10
to 15 mph Monday but decrease for Tuesday and Wednesday. Humidities
will be falling into the teens most locations by Wednesday. Westerly
winds will be on the increase for Thursday with relative humidities
falling into the over the lowlands teens which will likely result in
some areas experiencing critical fire weather conditions. A slight
cool down is expected for Friday with lighter winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 43  65  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           41  62  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              38  63  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              39  64  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              25  44  30  54 /  20   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   39  64  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             34  56  35  66 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                  36  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               35  59  33  68 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      44  64  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               36  66  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            41  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              40  59  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  41  65  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            40  64  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          42  64  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           36  64  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   38  65  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                40  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               40  64  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 32  56  34  67 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero               31  54  32  63 /  20   0   0   0
Timberon                29  51  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                 30  57  30  67 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro               34  62  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               36  63  36  69 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            25  56  25  66 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                  32  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   30  60  29  70 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek              32  57  33  66 /  20   0   0   0
Faywood                 33  60  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  35  61  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 35  60  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          35  62  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              36  57  36  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ402.

TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz



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