Area Forecast Discussion
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529
FXUS64 KEPZ 211201
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
501 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm was moving into the area this morning. For today we
will see off and on snow showers in the mountains and rain showers
in the lowlands. Winds will be very strong this afternoon and may
lead to some isolated property damage and power outages. For
Sunday and Monday we will be calmer, drier and warmer. On Tuesday
we will see a slight chance for light mountains snow showers and
breezy to windy conditions in the lowlands. The end of next week
will be dry but cool.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Snow and rain is already falling across the area this morning. An
upper level short wave was moving across Arizona this morning and
it was generating wide spread rain and snow showers out ahead of
the system. Our precipitation chances will continue this morning
with probably our best chances for precip between 15Z and 18Z.
Winter weather highlights look good to go so no changes there. In
the afternoon as the precipitation begins to slow our surface
winds will really get cranking. We will see winds this afternoon
of 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Cool season winds like these will
lead to power outages, numerous tree falls and possible
18-wheelers blown off the road and isolated property damage. The
winds and any remaining precipitation will diminish by early
Sunday morning.

For the rest of Sunday and into Monday we will see calmer,drier
and warmer conditions. Then on Tuesday the next in a series of
upper level short waves will move across the region. Right now
the short wave looks weaker than today`s and will have less
moisture to work with so we will only see a slight chance for
mountains snows and lowland rain (west of the Rio Grande). We will
be breezy to windy conditions Tuesday afternoon, but again
nothing like what we will see this afternoon. The short wave will
open the door to cooler air. For the rest of next week we will see
a couple more short waves move across the area, but they will be
weak and have no moisture to work with so they will just reinforce
the cool air that is already in place.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/12Z-22/12z
Lots of weather to be aware of today. Early in the day we will
have low ceilings and low visibilities as areas of lowland rain
and mountains snow showers continue off and on during the day.
Ceilings and visibilities will range from low end VFR to MVFR, but
we could see some IFR and even isolated LIFR conditions.
Visibilities and ceilings will slowly improve this afternoon but,
winds will be on the increase, so that by the afternoon we will
have very strong winds. Winds of 28040G50KT will be possible late
this afternoon into the evening. Cool season strong wind events
often lead to property damage so airports and pilots need to make
sure planes and other items are properly secured. The winds and
precipitation will diminish during the early morning ours on
Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Busy weather for the next 24 hours. An approaching upper level
storm system will bring lots of snow to the mountains and lots of
rain to the lowlands. The precipitation will begin to wind down by
the afternoon, but then very strong winds will move across the
area. Sustained winds of 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph will be
possible this afternoon and evening. The winds and precipitation
should diminish by early Sunday evening. We will be dry, calmer
and warmer for Sunday and Monday, but then on Tuesday another
upper level storm system will bring some light snow to area
mountains and breezy to windy conditions to the lowlands. The end
of next week looks dry and cool. Min RH`s will stay above 30% for
at least the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 51  37  55  38 /  70  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca           49  34  53  35 /  60  20   0   0
Las Cruces              49  32  52  34 /  60  20   0   0
Alamogordo              48  30  51  35 /  60  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              29  21  39  28 /  90  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences   48  30  49  32 /  40  20   0   0
Silver City             36  25  43  29 /  80  30   0  20
Deming                  47  31  52  32 /  70  20   0   0
Lordsburg               46  31  50  33 /  60  20   0   0
West El Paso Metro      50  38  55  38 /  70  20   0   0
Dell City               51  31  56  31 /  60  20   0   0
Fort Hancock            53  35  57  36 /  60  20   0   0
Loma Linda              45  34  49  36 /  70  20   0   0
Fabens                  52  35  55  34 /  70  20   0   0
Santa Teresa            49  36  54  35 /  70  20   0   0
White Sands HQ          49  34  53  37 /  60  20   0   0
Jornada Range           49  29  52  33 /  50  20   0   0
Hatch                   49  31  52  33 /  50  20   0   0
Columbus                50  35  54  34 /  60  20   0   0
Orogrande               50  33  53  36 /  60  20   0   0
Mayhill                 41  27  48  31 /  70  30   0   0
Mescalero               38  23  44  30 /  80  30   0   0
Timberon                38  25  44  29 /  80  30   0   0
Winston                 40  22  48  27 /  60  20   0   0
Hillsboro               45  27  50  31 /  60  20   0  10
Spaceport               49  30  50  32 /  40  20   0   0
Lake Roberts            37  18  43  22 /  80  30   0  20
Hurley                  41  26  45  29 /  70  30   0  10
Cliff                   44  23  49  28 /  70  30   0  20
Mule Creek              41  22  46  27 /  70  30   0  20
Faywood                 43  27  48  31 /  70  30   0  10
Animas                  49  31  54  33 /  60  20   0   0
Hachita                 48  31  53  31 /  60  20   0   0
Antelope Wells          48  31  56  34 /  70  20   0   0
Cloverdale              45  32  51  36 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Sunday for
     NMZ404>407-410-411-413-417.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Sunday for
     NMZ409-412.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ414-415.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ416.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ401-
     403-408.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ402.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Sunday for
     TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

15/15



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