Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 021011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE OUR RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND WE WILL SEE OUR TEMPERATURES DECREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWLANDS MAY DIP BELOW 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST 3 MONTHS. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT THE MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR WEST IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PLUME TO DRIFT BACK OVER NEW MEXICO FROM ARIZONA. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF DEMING AND T OR C...BUT NOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE TO GIVE EVERYWHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SO THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD HINTED AT
A POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE BUT THE
CURRENT RUN OF THE MODELS KEEPS THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WEST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE.

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO RESTRENGTHEN AND MOVE
BACK IN OUR DIRECTION. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS WEST IT STARTS TO CUT
OFF OUR MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE HAS STARTED
DRIFTING BACK EAST SO THAT DEEP MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
RIVER...CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MONSOON SEASON ISN`T OVER YET...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT IS GETTING OLD AS THE WESTERLY WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO GET STRONGER TO OUR NORTH. IT WON`T BE LONG BEFORE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE IS SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA FOR GOOD.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY...BUT FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD END EL PASO
STREAK OF 90+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES DAYS AT 100. BY SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL OR MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE`VE SEEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF A LINE FROM KDMN TO KTCS AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
AND WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE TODAY. WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WE COULD
SEE CEILINGS OF BKN120...BUT EAST OF THE RIVER WE SHOULD STAY
SCT120 EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH AND WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OTHER THING TO BE AWARE OF TODAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS OF
VRB30G40KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WE HAVE BEEN DRY AND WARM BUT THAT IS
CHANGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS TODAY. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR OR MAYBE EVEN BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN RH`S WHICH HAD BEEN
HOVERING NEAR 20% IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEAR 30% IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL JUMP UP TO THE 30`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 50`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  71  92  69 /  20  20  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           95  66  91  65 /   0  20  10  20
LAS CRUCES              94  66  90  64 /  20  20  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              95  66  90  65 /  20  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              71  48  68  49 /  30  30  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   90  65  86  63 /  30  20  40  30
SILVER CITY             84  61  80  57 /  30  20  50  50
DEMING                  93  65  87  62 /  20  20  50  40
LORDSBURG               92  64  85  62 /  20  20  50  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  72  92  69 /  20  20  10  20
DELL CITY               97  66  94  69 /   0  20  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            97  70  94  69 /   0  20  10  20
LOMA LINDA              94  68  89  65 /   0  20  10  20
FABENS                  97  69  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA TERESA            95  69  91  67 /  20  20  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  68  90  66 /  20  20  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           94  66  89  65 /  20  20  20  20
HATCH                   94  65  89  63 /  20  20  20  30
COLUMBUS                94  67  89  63 /  20  20  50  40
OROGRANDE               95  69  91  67 /  20  20  10  20
MAYHILL                 79  55  76  55 /  30  30  40  30
MESCALERO               81  54  78  55 /  30  30  40  30
TIMBERON                80  57  76  56 /  20  30  30  30
WINSTON                 81  57  77  55 /  40  30  40  50
HILLSBORO               91  63  87  59 /  30  20  40  40
SPACEPORT               92  65  87  63 /  20  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            83  54  78  51 /  30  30  50  50
HURLEY                  87  62  82  58 /  20  20  50  50
CLIFF                   91  60  83  58 /  20  20  50  50
MULE CREEK              90  57  81  54 /  20  20  50  50
FAYWOOD                 89  62  84  58 /  30  20  50  50
ANIMAS                  90  64  84  62 /  20  20  50  50
HACHITA                 92  65  86  61 /  20  20  50  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          88  62  82  60 /  30  20  50  50
CLOVERDALE              85  62  79  58 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE



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