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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212132
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
332 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
After a wet weekend with a flash flood risk hovering over us,
weather conditions will be mostly calm today and tomorrow.
However, there is a chance for isolated storms. Rain chances will
increase into the scattered to numerous categories by Thursday and
Friday, especially in the area mountains as an upper high
weakens. Then, by early next week, quiet and calm weather
dominates with only a chance for isolated storms due to a high
pressure north of us.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At the moment we are losing the influence of the upper low
pressure near the coast of California. As we lose its influence
we are going to experience a decrease in our surge of monsoon
moisture from the south. Water vapor imagery confirms a dry slot
that started to intrude the region last night. The sounding from
this morning already shows PW values dropping into 1.3 inches from
the 1.5 inches observed on Sunday. This dry air mass will inhibit
the development of thunderstorms in the area today. However, I am
keeping chances of isolated storms in most areas and up to
scattered in the mountains for the next two days. This surge of
dry air increases the temperatures a few degrees, but still below
normal values. Opposite as to what occurred yesterday when we had
temperatures well below normal, due to the excessive moisture in
the region that allowed for a thick cloud deck to hover over us
for a great part of the day. Speaking of temperatures they will
mostly remain below normal this week. This is a result of the
moisture in the area and the cloud coverage.

The next couple of days a high pressure further establishes
hindering the development of any convective action. The moisture
trapped in place from the last few days will aid in cloud
development, but with a lack of additional moist air intrusion
and marginal instability, the chances for thunderstorms remain
low overall. Prog soundings for KELP show PW values falling to
around an inch, which is certainly drier to what we have seen this
past few days. GFS and NAM models display CAPE values mostly
below a 1000 J/kg and LI between 0 and -2C, which is very
marginal.

This upper high weakens around Thursday and moisture makes a come
back, but it is not very significant. A series of upper level
disturbances appear to be the reason for the increase in storms
during those days. The moment the upper high reestablishes it
recycles the moisture from Colorado back into our area keeping
active weather conditions through the weekend. This ridge is
strong enough to keep a tropical system out of the Borderland.
This tropical system appears to be doing a road trip in Texas, as
seen in both the GFS and the ECMWF. However, the ECMWF solution
seems suspicious as it has this system stalling in east Texas,
and then finally moving east.

Early next week we run out of moisture coming from the north
brought by the same upper high circulation in the region. Dry and
warmer weather should return as models agree on the development of
this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-23/00Z...
FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN250 for much of the period. Isolated 1-3SM
TSRA BKN030-040 possible through 03Z and again after 18Z, mainly
in mountain areas and east of Rio Grande. Winds generally variable
under 10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Building ridge over the region will help to suppress showers and
thunderstorms for next couple of days.  There will still be some
isolated lowland and scattered mountain storms, but coverage is
expected to increase going into Thursday and Friday as ridge breaks
down and a couple of disturbances move through region.  Even with
the downturn in thunderstorms for coming days, dew points will
remain fairly high and keep relative humidities above 25 percent.
Winds will remain light but this will also lead to continued poor to
good vent rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 71  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  30
Sierra Blanca           67  90  68  89 /  20  30  20  40
Las Cruces              67  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  30
Alamogordo              67  90  67  90 /  20  30  10  40
Cloudcroft              52  69  52  69 /  20  50  30  50
Truth or Consequences   66  91  69  91 /  10  10  20  30
Silver City             61  85  63  85 /  10  20  10  40
Deming                  66  92  67  92 /  10  10  10  30
Lordsburg               66  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  30
West El Paso Metro      71  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
Dell City               69  93  69  91 /  10  20  10  30
Fort Hancock            71  94  72  93 /  20  20  20  30
Loma Linda              66  88  67  88 /  10  20  10  40
Fabens                  71  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  20
Santa Teresa            69  93  71  93 /  10  10  10  20
White Sands HQ          68  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  40
Jornada Range           66  92  68  92 /  20  10  20  30
Hatch                   66  93  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
Columbus                68  92  70  92 /  10   0  10  30
Orogrande               69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  30
Mayhill                 57  78  57  77 /  20  50  30  50
Mescalero               56  78  56  78 /  20  30  30  50
Timberon                56  76  57  77 /  20  50  30  50
Winston                 57  84  60  83 /  20  30  20  60
Hillsboro               62  88  64  88 /  20  20  20  50
Spaceport               66  91  68  91 /  20  10  20  30
Lake Roberts            56  84  59  84 /  20  30  20  40
Hurley                  61  87  63  87 /  10  20  10  40
Cliff                   61  92  64  92 /  10  20  10  40
Mule Creek              63  89  65  89 /  10  10  20  40
Faywood                 61  88  64  87 /  10  20  10  40
Animas                  66  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  30
Hachita                 65  91  67  91 /  10  10  10  30
Antelope Wells          65  91  67  91 /  20  20  20  30
Cloverdale              63  87  64  87 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29-Crespo/ 26-Grzywacz



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