Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 132002
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
202 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH A
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING`S EPZ RAOB SHOWED BOTH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH A 1600 J/KG CAPE AND 1.4 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS BUILDING OVER THE AREA THERE WAS
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT SO HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW
HAVE INITIATED EARLY AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
FURTHER HEATING PLUS STORM OUTFLOW EXPECTED TO CAUSE ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE/SPREAD OVER THE LOWLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT INDICATES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE WHILE DCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG SUGGEST
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO
INDICATE HAIL SIZES SHOULD BE GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STRONG RIDGE BROAD AXIS ALOFT EXPECTED TO
EXTEND TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARM AIR ALOFT SOMEWHAT INHIBITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
CONVERSELY AT THE SURFACE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN OF HEAT/THERMAL
LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST WILL SUSTAIN MOSTLY LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 50 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS RESULTING IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYING ABOVE AN INCH WITH AFTERNOON MUCAPES
AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG. SO DESPITE UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT
EXPECT STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND OUTFLOWS TO GENERATE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AGAIN SUGGESTING RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST AND
DEVELOP A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION WHICH WOULD ALLOW WEAK
DISTURBANCES/SHORT WAVES TO ENTER THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
REMAINING ABOVE AN INCH AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST INTO
THE CWA. THIS WILL TEND TO STABILIZE AIR MASS RESULTING IN
DIMINISHED CONVECTION LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 14/0000Z - 15/0000Z
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 7-8KFT. A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE UP FROM MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z.
SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL...MAINLY IMPACTING
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO ELP TO
WARRANT KEEPING VCTS IN FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND...
A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT. ALSO MID-LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS STORM MOTION COMING UP FROM MEXICO. EXPECT
MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION OF SIMILAR INTENSITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS OF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE LOWLANDS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE NORTH OF
THE BIG BEND MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.

OTHERWISE...OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST OF THE REGION
LEAVING US OPEN TO WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  97  75  97  76 /  30  20  30  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           65  92  66  92  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              70  96  71  94  70 /  30  20  30  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              68  95  71  94  75 /  30  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  71  51  74  51 /  40  40  40  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  91  69  93  71 /  30  30  30  30  30
SILVER CITY             66  86  63  86  64 /  40  30  40  50  50
DEMING                  70  95  70  95  70 /  30  30  30  30  30
LORDSBURG               68  94  67  92  70 /  30  30  30  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      75  98  74  97  76 /  30  20  30  30  30
DELL CITY               66  95  69  95  73 /  20  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            70  98  71  98  73 /  20  20  20  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  92  65  92  67 /  30  20  20  30  30
FABENS                  71  98  74  97  74 /  30  20  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            71  96  74  95  72 /  30  20  30  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  96  72  95  73 /  30  20  30  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           65  95  68  94  66 /  30  20  30  30  30
HATCH                   69  97  70  97  68 /  30  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                71  94  72  93  71 /  30  30  30  30  30
OROGRANDE               68  96  70  96  70 /  30  20  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 54  80  54  82  59 /  40  30  40  40  30
MESCALERO               53  82  56  83  55 /  40  40  40  50  30
TIMBERON                53  80  55  82  53 /  30  30  30  30  30
WINSTON                 62  85  63  84  62 /  40  30  40  50  40
HILLSBORO               66  89  66  89  66 /  30  30  30  40  30
SPACEPORT               69  92  68  93  69 /  30  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            60  87  61  84  59 /  50  40  40  50  50
HURLEY                  67  87  68  89  64 /  40  30  40  40  40
CLIFF                   65  92  66  91  64 /  40  30  40  50  50
MULE CREEK              61  89  58  90  60 /  40  30  30  50  50
FAYWOOD                 66  90  64  89  63 /  30  30  30  40  30
ANIMAS                  69  94  69  93  72 /  40  30  30  40  30
HACHITA                 68  94  65  94  70 /  30  30  30  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          66  91  66  92  72 /  40  30  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              62  89  63  89  65 /  40  30  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN





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