Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 150448
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1148 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TONIGHT-MON:
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY LARGE ERRORS IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG NORTHEAST BORDER OF FORECAST AREA IN
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. CHANCES THEN INCREASE A BIT
ON MON NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ALONG OK BORDER.

TUE-WED:
MOISTURE/WARM AIR WILL START TO SPREAD BACK NORTH THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TUE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WED IN CENTRAL KS. TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE STILL A BIT NEBULOUS...WITH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SLOSH MOISTURE/FRONT/PRECIPITATION AROUND WITH EACH RUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MOST ARES ON TUE...WITH WARMUP ON WED
AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODELS FINALLY SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY STARTING WITH 0000 UTC
RUNS AND CONTINUING WITH 1200 UTC RUNS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST ON THU WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRI. FRONT SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SAT AND
SAT NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUN EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  82  58  76 /  10  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  76  56  76 /  20  30  10  10
NEWTON          65  79  55  74 /  20  30  10  10
ELDORADO        66  82  56  75 /  20  40  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  87  59  77 /  10  40  20  10
RUSSELL         61  69  51  74 /  20  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  69  54  75 /  20  30  10  10
SALINA          64  70  49  74 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  71  55  75 /  20  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  59  76 /  20  50  30  10
CHANUTE         64  85  56  74 /  30  50  20  10
IOLA            63  82  55  73 /  30  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  58  75 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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