Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 292338
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Ongoing convection over the forecast area early this afternoon has
developed along a boundary associated with a cold pool from the
earlier convection across northern Oklahoma.  Shear from LAPS over
the past several hours ending at 18z shows values around 20 knots at
best, suggesting minimal chances for organized convection right now.
The RAP does not indicate this will change that much this evening.

Strong CAPE ahead of that boundary suggests the main threat is hail,
with some downburst winds also. The only hope for organized storms
is strong low level CAPE, which does exist along that outflow.

Either way, severe storms possible initially with hail and wind
threats (in that order). The weak upper level flow pattern will
eventually head the event toward a flooding event over time.

As the diurnal convection comes to an end this evening, weak
moisture transport is forecast to develop over the High Plains.
Current NWP shows this mainly being relegated to the High Plains,
though predictability has been moderate at best.  Would not be
surprised if scattered storms continue across the remainder of the
forecast area.

Southwesterly 500 mb flow pattern suggests high confidence in an
active pattern through the middle of the week with several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. High confidence that these will occur
primarily in the afternoon and evening.  Exactly where is very
difficult to pin down any one location.  Suffice it to say, a good
shot that by Wednesday night, nearly everyone will have received
rain again.  This will only agitate flood concerns.

During the early part of the week, the upper level trough will
gradually move east. On Wednesday, it is expected to move through
the region.  This will probably be the day with the most severe
weather given the upper level support/higher deep layer shear.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The upper level trough is expected to remain quasi-stationary
southeast of the region through the weekend as ridge building occurs
over inter-mountain west. This will enhance the northerly flow
aloft and keep drier air in place across the region. The main
point here is, it should be dry after Wednesday through the
weekend.

NOTE: Should the forecast upper level low that is expected to close
off over the southern U.S. be further north, our chances for drying
out into the weekend decrease significantly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered showers/storms will linger over Central Kansas into the
evening hours. Then the activity should begin to decrease for the
night time hours. VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites
during the next 24hrs.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Most of the storms that will affect the region this week will be
heavy rain producers. A survey of the area suggests there is still
a great deal of high water in areas that previously received rain. Given
the already saturated soils, any heavy rainfall would result in
significant flooding issues for areas with already high water.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  82  63  79 /  30  30  30  60
Hutchinson      61  82  62  77 /  30  20  30  60
Newton          62  81  62  77 /  30  30  30  60
ElDorado        63  81  63  78 /  30  30  30  70
Winfield-KWLD   63  82  64  80 /  30  30  30  60
Russell         59  82  60  75 /  50  20  50  50
Great Bend      60  82  61  76 /  40  20  40  60
Salina          62  82  62  78 /  40  20  40  60
McPherson       61  82  62  77 /  30  30  40  60
Coffeyville     62  82  63  80 /  30  40  30  50
Chanute         63  81  62  79 /  30  30  30  60
Iola            63  81  62  79 /  30  30  30  60
Parsons-KPPF    62  82  62  80 /  30  30  30  60

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRC
LONG TERM...KRC
AVIATION...CDJ
HYDROLOGY...KRC


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