Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171745
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1145 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Rest of the weekend:
At 3 AM CDT, a weak surface trough extended from the southeast SD/
northeast Nebraska border to southeast CO. Well to the SE of the
trough a broad moisture axis covered most of OK, and had crossed
the OK/KS border. Widespread light rain has been occurring across
OK has spread NE into primarily southeast KS. The afore-mentioned
surface trough is still expected to push SE across KS this morning
in response to a mid-level shortwave that`ll sprint E/SE. As the
shortwave surges across the MS Valley, the surface trough would
surge SE & should cross the KS/MO border early this afternoon. The
light rain that`ll occur across primarily southeast KS will
quickly end around 9 AM. NW flow would advect much warmer & drier
air across KS which would elevate the grassland fire danger across
all of central & most of south-central KS where it`ll reach the
"Very High" category. The pattern is very progressive, so the
surface high that`ll follow the surface trough would quickly move
E across MS Valley tonight as the next, & stronger, surface trough
punches almost due south from the northwestern plains to eastern
CO. With this next surface trough being much stronger, the
resulting S-SW winds would likewise be much stronger & would
further elevate the grassland fire danger. It`s likely an extreme
grassland fire danger will exist across much of central KS Sun
afternoon.

Sunday night-Mon night:
This 2nd NE-SW oriented lower-deck trough will push into KS Sun
night & would cause markedly increasing warm, moist advection,
especially across southeast KS. The 2nd mid-upper shortwave will
move very slowly E likely progressing no further than NM by Mon
night. This would prolong the rain & possible thunderstorms across
southeast KS throughout these periods. Heavy rains are possible in
southeast KS Mon night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

It`ll be a wet start to the work-week as the mid-upper trof will
continue to make slow eastward progress. The rain occurring across
southeast KS would slowly come to an end Tue night with a change
to light snow. Dry weather is slated for the middle of the week as
semi-zonal regime dominates. The shot for rain should arrive Thu
night as yet another shortwave ventures E toward the southern
plains late Thu night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Main aviation concern will be wind shear late tonight into Sun
morning.

Water vapor imagery shows the shortwave that brought rain to se KS
tracking across the mid Mississippi Valley. Winds will continue
to flip around to the nw as this wave continues to slide east and
will increase this afternoon. However, as sunset approaches winds
will quickly decrease and come around to the south as lee
troughing strengthens. As this occurs, strong low level jet will
develop before sunrise with winds just off of the surface in the
40-50kt range for areas along and west of I-135. Surface winds
will be strong on Sun with sustained speeds around 30 mph likely
with gusts over 40 mph for areas along and west of I-135.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Fire danger concerns will become increasingly elevated across the
entire region. Winds will shift to the NW today to produce a very
high grassland fire danger in central & south-central KS this
afternoon. An extreme grassland fire danger is very possible in
most of central KS on Sun as winds become southwesterly & increase
from 25 to 35 mph, with gusts around 35 mph and spread much warmer
& drier air into KS. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged on
Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  35  63  55 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      58  34  65  52 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          58  34  62  53 /   0   0   0  20
ElDorado        58  35  61  54 /   0   0   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   60  36  63  58 /   0   0  10  20
Russell         57  34  71  40 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      57  35  70  44 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          57  34  66  49 /   0   0   0  20
McPherson       58  34  65  51 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     59  33  62  58 /  20   0  10  50
Chanute         58  32  60  56 /  30   0   0  50
Iola            58  32  60  55 /  30   0   0  40
Parsons-KPPF    59  33  61  57 /  30   0   0  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...EPS


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