Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 281202
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
702 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H WARM MOIST ADVECTION HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALSO LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS) SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
 THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE
CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH SUN MRNG & LKLY BEYOND
WITH ~10,000FT ALTOCU VACATING SE KS ~15Z. SE WINDS 9-13KTS/10-15
MPH PREVAIL ACRS SC & SE KS WITH CNTRL KS TERMINALS E-NE WINDS
LESS THAN 7KTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SE & INCRG TO 13KTS/15MPH
SUSTAINED THIS AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME DUE S THIS EVE & INCR TO
17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WITH THE SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ACRS
CNTRL & SC KS.

*CORRECTED TYPING IN 6TH LINE OF TEXT*

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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