Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 041955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  90  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  89  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  90  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  87  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  88  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  86  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  88  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  90  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  88  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  87  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  88  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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