Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 221852
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
252 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS AND TROF IN ERN NAMERICA.
SFC HI PRES IS MOVING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH LLVL WNW
FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE ADVECTING SOME DRY AIR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z INL RAOB TOWARD UPR MI. THERE WERE SOME CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN
ON THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H85/ THIS MRNG...BUT SINCE THE COOLER AIR
UNDER THE TROF IN ERN CANADA IS RETREATING...LINGERING CLD COVER
EARLY THIS AFTN HAS SHIFTED TO MAINLY THE ERN CWA. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV NORMAL AND TO 65-70 AWAY
FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. LOOKING TO THE W...SKIES ARE
MOCLR THRU MN UNDER H5 HGT RISES/SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.40-0.50 INCH...BUT MORE HI
CLDS ARE SPREADING NE THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV
LIFTING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS WITH DRY
HI PRES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.

TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG MOVING OVER THE CWA UNDER RISING HGTS/
DRY AIRMASS...EXPECT MOCLR CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS...THE WARMTH OF THIS AIR WITH H85 TEMPS FCST NEAR
12C AT 12Z TUE AS WELL AS STEADY WNW H925 WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS WL
KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING AS LO AS LAST NGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS
OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL CLOSER TO THE LIGHTER H925 WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES CENTER PASSING NEAR THE LOWER LKS. BUT TEMPS
WL NOT FALL BLO 40...SO THERE WL BE NO FROST.

TUE...AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TO THE SSW. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS AND H85 TEMPS HOLDING ARND 12C...EXPECT TEMPS
TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL OCCUR MAINLY
DOWNWIND OF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT FCST OVER THE
UPR LKS...THERE WL BE SOME LK BREEZE FORMATION/LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK
SUP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ONLY
ITEM OF CONCERN IS AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AT THIS
TIME. AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA TO BECOME CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AND SEPARATED OUT
FROM THE REST OF THE FEATURE. MODELS STILL CONSISTENT ON THE BEST
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING NORTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A PLEASANT END TO SEPTEMBER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH STATIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION (AROUND A RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA) AND ALLOW
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
MOST DAYS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (OR ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST)...WHICH WILL MARK THE RETURN TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. STRONGER W WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

W WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE NCENTRAL LAKE WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
WITH THIS RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THRU THE WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIER THAN 20 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



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