Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 182052
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

A 1028MB SFC HIGH CENTERED JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A
RESULT...ONLY SOME SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT FROM ERN
ONTONAGON INTO BARAGA COUNTIES...WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE EXTENT OF THE CLEARING TODAY...MORE THAN MANY
MODELS ORIGINALLY SHOWED...WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GOING
INTO TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR COLD TEMPS TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 0F INTERIOR W AND INTERIOR
FAR E....HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKE SHORES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. COULD SEE VERY SHALLOW FOG
/FREEZING FOG DUE TO SUB FREEZING TEMPS/ IN AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR THAT HAVE SEEN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY...BUT STILL
INLAND FROM THE LAKE WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL RESULT. AM UNCERTAIN ON
THE FOG...COULD END UP BEING A HEAVY FROST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN ON FRI BEHIND THE SFC HIGH AND AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES NW OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 00Z SAT WITH A
CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW DOES NOT MOVE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST AND
THE SYSTEM SNOW REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
12Z MON AND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THE
TROUGH AND LOW MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED AND THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA ON THU. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW GOES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WITH LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST AND KEEP THE PCPN AS SNOW EXCEPT NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR MON INTO
WED AS THE TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND THE TRACK WILL DETERMINE THE
PCPN TYPE. SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A WINTER STORM SOMEWHERE IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TODAY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VERY
SHALLOW FOG TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG IS AT KCMX...SO SHOWED A
DROP OF VIS. HOWEVER...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP CIGS AT THIS
TIME. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
WILL DIMINISH THE NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15KTS. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND GENERALLY
UNDER 20KTS. THIS TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





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