Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 300839
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WV IMAGERY WITH OVERLAID RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE AXIS
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF 08Z. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY
STRONG...EVEN TOUCHING OFF A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY FOR THE SAME TIME SHOWS A
CONTINUED AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. WITH BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION NOTED IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE FAR
EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST. HIRES MODELS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THE
VICINITY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH OVERLAID WITH DEEP
LAYER QCONV. AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING AND THE LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
END UP SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD BE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRIER AIR APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY TODAY WITH MANY
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MID 60S WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SUNSHINE THAT
SNEAKS THROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SKIES ALSO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AS LOW
AS THE LOW 40S.  A FEW OF THE MODELS EVEN HAD A COUPLE UPPER 30
DEGREE READINGS OVER THE INLAND WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE OVER THE
EAST WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM OUT THAT WAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. FOR COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIGHT AROUND 53 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z WED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE TROUGH PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST CORNBELT 12Z
FRI. CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PCPN OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z
SAT. ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH TOPS THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
12Z SUN AND AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL. SAT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT DAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND THEN NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON
MON WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND WSHFT TO THE NNW...THE UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF
SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT AT
KIWD/KCMX...BUT KSAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN WITH A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW IN THE
EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
FAIRLY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC



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