Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 221433
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1033 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL
DOWNPOURS...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE SE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDING TO LATEST
RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA. DECREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY...EXCEPT
TOWARDS OUR CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS EVIDENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH. THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS RAIN FREE.

HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES MEANDERING AROUND THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES WOULD BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OR STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE RAP
SOLUTION ON QPF BLENDED WITH THE WRFA5K...DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY CONTINUES SINKING SOUTH SATURDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND TO KICK OFF SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE COAL FIELDS AND WV MOUNTAINS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AS HEIGHTS BUILD
AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH...STILL EXPECTING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND LOWS
BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AREA BUT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE CONTENDING
WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. A FRONT APPROACHES LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH 06Z TO 12Z WITH LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS AND IFR VSBY AND CEILING.  OTHER DISTURBANCES IN ITS WAKE
WILL RIDE SE AND MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS DURING THE
MORNING...FIGURING MORE IN SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
FOR THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

CEILINGS BECOMING MAINLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN WITH LAYERS AND VSBY 5
TO 6 MILES IN HAZE AFTER ABOUT 16Z.  YET...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY...INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH IFR
VSBY AND CEILINGS.

MVFR VSBY LIKELY 03Z TO 06Z SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS WANING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION AND TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL
VARY. AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF PCPN MAY EVEN LINGER LONGER FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE 06Z TO AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB







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