Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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204
FXUS61 KRLX 090904
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
404 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system
crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Cold weather has settled into the middle Ohio River Valley and
Central Appalachians. As an upper level trough passes today,
expecting scattered flurries or snow showers across the lowlands
with no accumulation. Snow will be a bit heavier across the
northern mountainous counties of WV, where 1-3 inches is expected.
Heights begin to rise again across the west this afternoon, which
should start to break up the clouds. Surface high pressure begins
nosing in late tonight, shutting down any lingering mountain snow
showers.

A relatively stiff breeze tonight into Friday will create wind
chill values in the 10s and 20s across the lowlands, with the
highest ridges of the mountains dipping a few degrees below zero
for the wind chill.

Used a blend of ECMWF MOS and previous forecast for temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Friday...

Continued cold under high pressure through Sunday.

A system approaches Sunday increasing temps and precipitation
chances. Cold air may linger especially over SE Ohio before temps
warm above freezing. So may see some light fzra there Sunday
evening and into early Monday. Strong 850mb flow should scour out
any remaining cold air changing precip to all rain by Monday
morning. Models in fairly good agreement with this system though
minor differences in timing could drastically change forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 PM Thursday...

The extended was primarily populated with the Superblend given the
volatility amongst the global models and ensembles. Overall, a
reload of arctic air for the latter half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Stratus deck beginning to lower, and expect all TAF sites to drop
into MVFR and remain there into midday. Lower ceilings -- into
IFR -- expected in the mountains. Included some snow showers in
all TAFS -- although outside of EKN probably not much more than
flurries. Did add a tempo at BKW for some lower visibilities in
snow showers and several bands move through during the pre-dawn.

Clouds will gradually lift and break up from the SW through the
day with west to northwest low level flow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may
vary tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 12/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    M    L    M    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ



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