Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 221804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
204 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TONIGHT. A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WASH
OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP. FROST COULD
BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THAT
AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL. SOME VFR CLOUDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS
BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN OVERNIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS


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