Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 182304
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
700 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE FILTERED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
THERE A FEW DEGREES.

AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB STILL FM THE NNE.  RAP MODEL QUICKLY
VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z.  THUS CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT.  WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET.  THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER THE
HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER VALLEYS.

NO CHANGES TO POPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE
FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF
AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A
SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB LEVEL STILL FM THE NNE.  RAP MODEL
QUICKLY VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z.  THUS CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES IN THE 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY TIME
FRAME.  TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS INTO BKW TRICKY...BUT HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z.  WILL TRY TO KEEP CEILINGS MOSTLY 1 TO 2 THSD FT
AND MVFR.  SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THOUGH OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES.

WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY. BUT FURTHER WEST...FAVORED FOG OVER CLOUDS FOR
ELKINS VCNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET.  THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER
THE HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER
VALLEYS...FORECASTING IFR IN FOG REACHING CRW 06Z TO 08Z.

IN THE DRIER AIR FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST...SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
OVER THE OHIO RIVER MAY FORM FOR 09Z TO 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB










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