Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 181747
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1247 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses today. Warm front Monday, and then a cold
front midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1025 AM Sunday...

Quick update for Sky Grids to start clearing earlier through
this afternoon. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 400 AM Sunday...

Expired winter weather advisory across higher terrain.

As of 205 AM Sunday...

No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. Much
of the precipitation has tapered off, with mainly areas of -dz
across parts of the lowlands, with some -shsn still continuing
across the higher terrain. Looking like current winter weather
advisory will be on track to expire at 09Z as planned, with
precipitation appearing to be rather light/spotty in nature.

Otherwise, gusty winds across the area this evening, will gradually
become light throughout the day as surface high pressure continues
to build in from the west, along with a gradual clearing trend.
Temperatures under abundant sunshine should allow for a nice warm
up, with temperatures expected to warm into the upper 40s to lower
50s for much of the area.

Overnight, clouds will increase, along with chances for
precipitation again, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across
the area. Expecting either a slight increase in temperatures
overnight, or at least a steadying out of temps. Precipitation
overnight is looking to be quick hitting, and light in nature, so
not expecting any additional water issues from it at this time.
There could be a very brief period of freezing rain or drizzle
across the northern mountains early Monday, but at this point it
appears to be very marginal, with temps probably rising before much
moisture moves into the area. Have kept a mainly rain forecast at
this point.

Flooding along the Ohio River is expected to continue through at
least Monday or Tuesday, depending on location.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

A warm front will lift through on Monday with an area of
showers. Rainfall amounts should generally be a quarter inch or
less. Tuesday will be abnormally warm -- with the whole forecast
area firmly in the warm sector. Bumped highs up another degree
on average. Am still a couple degrees below warmer MOS guidance.
Still... looking at record highs for the day and possibly the
month of February as a whole.

Slowed down POPs a bit Tuesday night, expecting it to remain
dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

A cold front will push through Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Have POPs on the increase in SE Ohio Wednesday morning, with an
area of 70-80 POPs crossing the forecast area with the front.
Also have slight chance of thunder mentioned. Differences remain
in the models as to how quickly the front will clear the
forecast area, and then eventually when it will lift back north
as a warm front under the influence of the next surface low.
Maintained chance POPs through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1247 PM Sunday...

MVFR ceilings at CRW, HTS and and PKB will become VFR as
clearing takes place due to a high pressure overhead early this
afternoon. Easterly light winds early this afternoon will turn
southeast tonight.

On Monday, the next system approaches increasing clouds and
chances of rain showers along with MVFR conditions to the
southernmost sites, then spreading north to affect rest of
sites.

Models show different solutions on pcpn, some of them, splitting
east and west leaving most of our area rain free Monday.
However, models are notorious for not handling warm front
correctly. Confidence runs low for any IFR conditions due to
pcpn.

A new but slow cold front will reach the OH River Wednesday and
Wednesday night. IFR conditions expected under periods of rain
showers and a slight possibility for thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. Medium with system Wednesday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ/AB
LONG TERM...MZ/AB
AVIATION...ARJ



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