897
FXUS61 KRLX 122311
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
711 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new
work week amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns Monday
night lasting into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 650 PM Sunday...

The forecast remains on track, with diurnal shallow fair
weather Cu field across the northeast mountains quickly
dissipating. This gives way to a chilly night amid a bit of
river valley fog, mainly across the deeper river valleys of
southern WV and southwest VA. The region has mixed down fairly
well today, with dew points rather low, currently in the mid
30s to low 40s across much of the area. Thus, with clear skies
and light boundary layer flow, have trended overnight temperatures
lower, generally 40s across the lowlands (isolated upper 30s
are possible in the traditional cold spots), with mid 30s to 40
in the mountains. There is the potential for patchy frost in the
typical mountain valley cold spots late tonight. While confidence
in extent is not high enough to warrant a Frost Advisory, did
issue an SPS for Pocahontas and parts of Randolph counties to
highlight this potential.

As of 147 PM Sunday...

A dry and chilly night is on tap as a surface high pressure remains
in control under mostly clear skies. Winds will become calm
overnight allowing for radiational cooling to drop temperatures
few degrees, slightly below normal at our common cold spots
into Monday morning.

Dry conditions will persist for the most part on Monday as the high
pressure shifts east, and the area becomes under deep northwest
flow. Warm air advection will promote warm afternoon temperatures,
generally in the lower 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid
60s higher elevations.

A southern stream shortwave energy, riding along an upper level
ridge, will bring an increase in clouds and low chances for
precipitation Monday afternoon and evening, ahead of an approaching
low pressure system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Active weather returns in the short term period as an upper low in
the southern stream moves east towards the Ohio Valley region Monday
night, eventually opening into a wave as it crosses our area on
Wednesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
the ares as it does so, with isolated water issues a possibility,
owing to saturated air and light flow. If localized water issues do
occur, Wednesday looks to be the better day for this owing to break
in precipitation in days before, and ground will need time to
saturate from repetitive slow moving storms/showers. Severe storms
are not anticipated during the period due to overall weak
dynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1155 AM Sunday...

Drier conditions take hold for Thursday as high pressure surface and
aloft briefly builds in. There could be an isolated shower or even
storm however, from any lingering moisture behind departing system
and diurnal heating. Otherwise, another low will approach the area
for Friday into the weekend, with additional rounds of showers and
storms. This period also looks to be a period that will need to be
watched for localized water issues, with model soundings suggesting
deeply saturated profiles with tall skinny cape, however, it appears
as though this feature will not linger long, with drier weather
taking hold for Sunday, therefore have low confidence this far out
in terms of impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM Sunday...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the end of this
TAF period amid dry weather. Some river valley fog is
anticipated later tonight across southern WV and southwest VA,
but it is not progged to cause restrictions at any terminals.
Clear skies overnight will give way to SCT high-level clouds on
Monday, with perhaps a bit of Cu development (FEW 040-060)
Monday afternoon across central/southern terminals.

Calm or light southerly flow is expected tonight. S/SSW flow is
expected on Monday, with an occasional gust of 15-20 kts possible
during the afternoon and early evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Areas of IFR visibility or ceilings are possible in rain Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...GW