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000
FXUS61 KRLX 251057
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
657 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE TODAY. WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CHILLY MORNING ON GOING...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS...AND TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST IN
PARTS OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. WILL LET THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES RIDE OUT. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
IMPACTS IN METRO AREAS LIKE CHARLESTON AND HUNTINGTON...ITS TOUGH TO
SAY HOW TEMPS ARE DOING IN THE OUTLYING HOLLOWS WHERE NO
MEASUREMENTS ARE AVAILABLE.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WITH A COUPLE RIPPLES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THICKER CLOUDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SW QUARTER OF THE
CWA. FARTHER NE...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY CLEAR NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

MAV/MET CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BLENDED IN THE CONSALL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH
IS BETWEEN THE MAV/MET ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL FEEL UNCERTAIN/LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE...AND THUS
THE POP...FOR THE WARM FRONT FOR MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY.  THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS STILL NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS. THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.  AT LEAST OUR TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD BE EXITING ON SUNDAY
MORNING...KEEPING NORTHERN COUNTIES ALMOST CLOUDLESS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MAY START INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE DAY.  FOR THE 3RD NIGHT...DID MENTION SOME FROST OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT/DAWN MONDAY FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

GENERALLY STAYED HIGHER THAN 00Z MOS POPS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL MOSTLY 30 AND 40 PERCENT WITH
THE WARM FRONTAL ACTION.

THINKING THE FRONT ITSELF WOULD STILL BE IN OUR CWA AT DAWN
TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  STILL NOT
BE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOR US...BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE
MIDWEST.  BUT DO REMNANTS OF THOSE COMPLEXES...STILL SURVIVE...AS
THEY MOVE ESE ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

WARM FRONT PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR
MIDWEEK. THE CURRENT FRESH AIR WILL BE JUST A MEMORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND WV MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OH...ACROSS WV AND VA ORIENTED
WEST TO EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE INCLUDING THUNDER IN WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TWEAKED COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z-14Z. VFR CU FIELD WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...GENERALLY 6-9KFT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN REMAINING VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG DISSIPATION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>032-039-040.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ035>038-046-
     047.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ