Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 210031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Aug 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 21-Aug 23 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 21-Aug 23 2017

            Aug 21     Aug 22     Aug 23
00-03UT        4          4          2
03-06UT        4          3          3
06-09UT        3          3          2
09-12UT        3          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        4          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels are expected on days one and two (21-22 Aug)
due to persistent coronal hole high speed stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 21-Aug 23 2017

              Aug 21  Aug 22  Aug 23
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 20 2017 0152 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 21-Aug 23 2017

              Aug 21        Aug 22        Aug 23
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
for the forecast period due to flare potential from Regions 2671 and
2672.


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