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000
FXXX10 KWNP 200031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2013 Jun 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 20-Jun 22 2013 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 20-Jun 22 2013

            Jun 20     Jun 21     Jun 22
00-03UT        2          3          3
03-06UT        2          4          3
06-09UT        1          3          3
09-12UT        1          3          3
12-15UT        2          2          3
15-18UT        2          3          3
18-21UT        3          4          2
21-00UT        4          4          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Quiet to active conditions are expected on Jun 20 - 21 due to coronal
hole high-speed stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 20-Jun 22 2013

              Jun 20  Jun 21  Jun 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 20-Jun 22 2013

              Jun 20        Jun 21        Jun 22
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There will be a chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackouts during the period due mainly to the flare potential exhibited
in Region 1775 (S26E20).