Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 180031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 18-Dec 20 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 18-Dec 20 2014

            Dec 18     Dec 19     Dec 20
00-03UT        3          2          4
03-06UT        2          2          4
06-09UT        2          2          3
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          4          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 18-Dec 20 2014

              Dec 18  Dec 19  Dec 20
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists
due to flare potential from Regions 2241 (S10E19) and 2242 (S18W01).

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 17 2014 0451 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 18-Dec 20 2014

              Dec 18        Dec 19        Dec 20
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) activity due to flare potential from
Regions 2241 (S10E19) and 2242 (S18W01).



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