Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 030030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Mar 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 03-Mar 05 2015 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 03-Mar 05 2015

            Mar 03     Mar 04     Mar 05
00-03UT        4          4          3
03-06UT        3          3          2
06-09UT        3          3          2
09-12UT        3          3          2
12-15UT        3          3          2
15-18UT        3          3          2
18-21UT        4          3          2
21-00UT        4          4          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 03-Mar 05 2015

              Mar 03  Mar 04  Mar 05
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 02 2015 1931 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 03-Mar 05 2015

              Mar 03        Mar 04        Mar 05
R1-R2           25%           10%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a decreasing chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackouts through the period.



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