Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
323 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

...SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER ON JUNE 11...SHOWS PERSISTENCE OF SEVERE TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH SOME AREAS OF IMPROVEMENT. MOST PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLES ARE EXPERIENCING EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AN AREA FROM GRAY COUNTY TO
SOUTHERN HUTCHINSON COUNTY HAS IMPROVED TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE SHORT TERM BENEFITS OF SEVERAL SPRING THUNDERSTORM
EVENTS PROVIDING SOME RELIEF. AFTER A DRY AND COLD START TO SPRING...
THE SECOND HALF HAS BEEN WARMER THAN NORMAL AND OCCASIONALLY WET.
THIS HAS LED TO  THE ONGOING MULTI-YEAR DROUGHT HAS LIMITED SURFACE
WATER SUPPLIES AND DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
A COMBINATION OF SEVERAL LATE SEASON FREEZES AND A SUBSEQUENT
PROLONGED DRY PERIOD LED TO SEVERE DAMAGE TO THE WINTER WHEAT CROP IN
THE PANHANDLES. RAINFALL SINCE HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO RESCUE MUCH OF
THE CROP. A THIRD YEAR OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY FORCE FURTHER CATTLE
HERD REDUCTION AND LIMITED SUCCESS WITH SUMMER CROPS. THOUGH CORN
AND OTHER IRRIGATED CROPS HAVE NOT HIT PEAK WATER DEMAND YET...
IRRIGATION IS CONTINUING IN PART TO TRY AND BUILD UP A BETTER SOIL
MOISTURE PROFILE. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER THE
LAST TWO WEEKS...GRASSES HAVE GREENED UP AND UPPER ZONE SOILS RANGE
FROM MODERATE AGRICULTURALLY DRY (10 TO 20 PERCENT FULL) TO GREATER
THAN 40 PERCENT FULL. WHERE LITTLE RAIN FELL THE LAST TWO WEEKS...
UPPER ZONE SOILS RANGE FROM EXTREME AGRICULTURALLY DRY (1 TO 5
PERCENT FULL) TO SEVERE AGRICULTURALLY DRY (5 TO 10 PERCENT FULL).
DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED...WITH SOILS RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 1 PERCENT FULL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES TO 10
TO 20 PERCENT FULL MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX...AN INDICATOR OF LONG TERM DROUGHT...
HAS DEGRADED TO AN EXTREME DROUGHT RATING FOR THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND TO A SEVERE DROUGHT RATING FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE
PALMER CROP MOISTURE INDEX...AN INDICATOR OF SHORT TERM DROUGHT...
SHOWS ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS REGION AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

ACCORDING TO THE CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED JUNE 11TH BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
WERE NOTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. COUNTIES RECEIVED ANYWHERE
FROM A SPRINKLE OF RAIN TO OVER FOUR INCHES. MOST OF THE REGION
REMAINED HOT AND WINDY. HAIL ACCOMPANIED THE RAIN IN SOME CASES...
AND SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUED TO BE MOSTLY POOR TO VERY POOR.
CROPS UNDER IRRIGATION WERE PROGRESSING. EARLY PLANTED CORN WAS
IN THE FOUR TO SIX LEAF STAGE...THOUGH SOME LATER PLANTINGS WERE
JUST EMERGING. GRAIN SORGHUM WAS STILL BEING PLANTED...WITH SOME OF
THE EARLIEST PLANTINGS AT TWO TO FOUR LEAF STAGE. GENERALLY THE
WINTER WHEAT CROP WAS IN VERY POOR CONDITION...AND MANY PRODUCERS
WERE USING THE CROP FOR SILAGE...HAY...OR GROUND COVER TO KEEP
BLOWING DUST AT A MINIMUM. COTTON WAS COMING ALONG...WITH MOST
FIELDS JUST EMERGING...THOUGH SOME EARLIER PLANTED FIELDS WERE AT
THE THREE TO FOUR LEAF STAGE. RANGELAND AND PASTURES CONTINUED TO BE
IN VERY POOR TO POOR CONDITION.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
SCATTERED WETTING RAINS IN EARLY JUNE HAVE PRODUCED A NOTABLE GREEN-
UP OF VEGETATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
THIS GREENING COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW FUEL LOADINGS FROM GRAZING
AND THE PERSISTENT EFFECTS OF LONG TERM DROUGHT WILL SUPPORT A LOW
SIGNIFICANT WILDLAND FIRE POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF JUNE
AND INTO EARLY JULY.

AS OF JUNE 14TH...COUNTYWIDE OUTDOOR BURN BANS WERE SUPPORTED IN
ALL BUT HANSFORD...ROBERTS...HEMPHILL...OLDHAM...GRAY...DEAF SMITH...
DONLEY...AND COLLINGSWORTH COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...NO COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) IS USED AS A SYSTEM FOR
RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR
EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. AS OF
JUNE 14TH...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWS THAT MOST
PANHANDLES COUNTIES FALL WITHIN THE 400 TO 600 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL. IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER
AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.
TEXAS COUNTY IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...FALL WITHIN THE 600 TO 800 RANGE...
WHICH IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SEVERE DROUGHT AND INCREASED
WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE. IN THIS RANGE...INTENSE...DEEP BURNING FIRES
WITH SIGNIFICANT DOWNWIND SPOTTING CAN BE EXPECTED. LIVE FUELS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED TO BURN ACTIVELY AT THESE LEVELS. HUTCHINSON...
ROBERTS...AND GRAY COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FALL WITHIN THE
200 TO 400 RANGE...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING AND THE EARLY
GROWING SEASON. IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS ARE
DRYING AND BEGINNING TO CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY.

NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT
FOR KEY WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF 20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE EXCEEDED...
EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE ELEVATED.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
SEVERAL PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HAVE MAINTAINED
WATER USE WATCHES DURING THE ONGOING DROUGHT...WITH SOME OF THEM
PLACING VOLUNTARY AND EVEN MILD OR MODERATE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS ON
USE. PLEASE BE AWARE OF ANY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS OR CONSERVATION
EFFORTS IN YOUR COMMUNITY.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

MAY WAS 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...
WITH MOST AREAS FALLING 1 TO 2 INCHES BEHIND NORMAL ON RAINFALL FOR
THE MONTH. ALONG A WEST TO EAST LINE FROM NORTHWEST DEAF SMITH
COUNTY TO EASTERN GRAY COUNTY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. OUT OF 119 YEARS...IT WAS THE 32ND WARMEST
AND 5TH DRIEST MAY FOR THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS REGION. IT WAS THE 47TH
WARMEST AND 4TH DRIEST MAY FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. FOR THE TEXAS
HIGH PLAINS REGION AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...THIS MAY MARKED THE
WARMEST JUNE TO MAY THREE-YEAR PERIOD. IT ALSO MARKED THE DRIEST
TWO-YEAR AND THREE-YEAR PERIODS ENDING IN MAY FOR THE TEXAS HIGH
PLAINS REGION.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE
CONTINUED. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED THE TRIPLE DIGITS A FEW TIMES
ALREADY...ESPECIALLY THOSE WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIMITED. RAINFALL
FOR THE MONTH HAS BEEN HIGHEST GENERALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS WELL AS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. BETTER
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN MINIMAL RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS THIS NEXT WEEK.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) INDICATES THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED INTO EARLY JUNE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. THE CPC IS FORECASTING ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS FALL. DURING NEUTRAL EPISODES...THE WEATHER PATTERNS
WHICH AFFECT THE PANHANDLES ARE TYPICALLY GUIDED BY OTHER SHORTER
TERM CLIMATE PATTERNS. ENSO FORECASTS ARE HISTORICALLY LESS ACCURATE
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
FEW MONTHS.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR JUNE INDICATES THAT THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES HAVE A GREATER CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE THROUGH AUGUST
INDICATES GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL
DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR JUNE THROUGH AUGUST...ISSUED BY THE CPC...
FORECASTS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY
ACROSS THE REGION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH...STREAMFLOWS ARE NORMAL LEVELS
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE
REMAINING AT MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE TO SEVERE HYDROLOGIC
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOWER ZONE
SOILS REMAIN AT TOTAL HYDROLOGICALLY DRY (LESS THAN 1 PERCENT FULL)
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PANHANDLES. LOWER ZONE SOILS
ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
RANGE FROM SEVERE (5 TO 10 PERCENT FULL) TO MODERATE HYDROLOGICALLY
DRY (10 TO 20 PERCENT FULL). FREQUENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEEDED TO
SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT SITUATION. SLIGHT
INCREASES OF STREAM DEPTHS AND LAKE DEPTHS HAVE BEEN NOTED AFTER THE
RECENT RAIN...THOUGH THESE RISES HAVE ONLY BEEN TEMPORARY. PALO DURO
RESERVOIR INCREASED 7 FEET IN JUST ONE WEEK. LAKE MEREDITH REACHED A
RECORD LOW DEPTH OF 27.03 FEET ON JUNE 6TH. GREENBELT LAKE REMAINS
NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS AT 12.1% FULL.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JUNE 14...

                     CURRENT   CONSERVATION     CURRENT             %
                   ELEVATION       CAPACITY     STORAGE  CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR               (FT)        (AC-FT)     (AC-FT)      CAPACITY

PALO DURO             2840.11         61066        2576          4.20
LAKE MEREDITH         2840.66        500000           0          0.00
GREENBELT LAKE        2618.29         59968        6890         11.50

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY JUNE 30TH...OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS):

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS HYDROLOGIC SERVICES...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.SWT.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD...HTTP://WWW.TWDB.TEXAS.GOV/
TWDB RESERVOIR LEVELS...HTTP://WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/ABRFC/
TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE...HTTP://AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE...AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1900 ENGLISH ROAD
AMARILLO TEXAS  79108
PHONE: 806-335-1121
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AMA

$$

FENNER
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