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000
AXUS74 KEPZ 040234 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO
830 PM MAY 03 2013

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
   AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT NOW PREVAILS OVER ALL OF SIERRA COUNTY EXCEPT
FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION COVERING THE BLACK RANGE WHERE
EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS. EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT ALSO COVERS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF OTERO COUNTY..THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF DONA
ANA COUNTY AND THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF LUNA COUNTY. A SMALL PORTION
OF OTERO COUNTY ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER IS IN SEVERE DROUGHT.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO REMAINS IN
EXTREME DROUGHT.

CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO WORSENED IN EL PASO AND EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTIES WHERE NOW ALL OF EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES ARE IN
SEVERE DROUGHT.



AS OF APRIL 29 2013 ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUED AND ARE
FAVORED INTO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THROUGH THE SUMMER OF 2013
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY WINTER OF 2013..

THE EL PASO AREA AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 51% OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1 TO DATE FOR 2013. SINCE THE START OF
2010 EL PASO HAS LOST MORE THAN 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO LOSING AROUND ONE AND QUARTER
YEAR`S WORTH OF RAINFALL.
FOR THE PAST 180 DAYS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 50% OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECTS OF THE DRYNESS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO LOWER THE THRESHOLDS FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO INITIATE BLOWING DUST EVENTS.

SPRING AND SUMMER STREAM FLOW FORECASTS AS OF MAY 1 IN OUR AREA SHOW
MOSTLY 20% TO 50% CAPACITY VALUES. PREDICTED SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES
FOR APRIL ARE RUNNING AROUND 80 TO 100 MM BELOW NORMAL. THE LAGGED
AVERAGED SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK THROUGH JULY 2013 IS FOR AROUND -40
MM OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR JAN THROUGH MAR FOR A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS
FOLLOW:
EL PASO........................ .71   AMTS IN INCHES
LAS CRUCES..................... .21   STATE UNIV
SANTA TERESA .................. .49   KEPZ
DEMING......................... .48
ANIMAS......................... .91
GILA HOT SPRINGS............... 2.48
FAYWOOD........................ .63
WINSTON........................ .85
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES.......... .16
CLOUDCROFT..................... 2.98

JANUARY THROUGH MARCH PRECIPITATION RAN 34% OF NORMAL IN THE DESERTS
OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE THE GILA WILDERNESS RAN AROUND 80% AND
THE SACRAMENTOS RAN AROUND 60% NORMAL.

SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS FORECAST THE PRESENT
DROUGHT CATEGORIES OVER OUR AREA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH JULY 31
2013.

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM NOW THROUGH
NOVEMBER 2013 WHICH WOULD IMPLY A SUBDUED SUMMER MONSOON AT BEST AT
THIS TIME. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES ARE FORECAST.



IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL
AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND
SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING
WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR
CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD
WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2
DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS
AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS
THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP
AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT
WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH
YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE
OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELPDROUGHTPAGE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S
DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN