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Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions: 1
2
000 AXUS73 KGID 131924 DGTGID KSC089-123-141-147-163-183-NEC001-019-035-047-059-061-065-073-077- 079-081-083-093-099-121-125-129-137-143-163-169-175-181-185- 271930- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 224 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT REMAIN QUITE POOR IN MOST SOUTHWEST COUNTIES... SYNOPSIS... SINCE THIS STATEMENT WAS LAST ISSUED ALMOST FIVE WEEKS AGO...A RATHER NOTABLE NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST DISPARITY IN RAINFALL TOTALS HAS BROUGHT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA...WHILE SEVERAL SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE MAINTAINED EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT LEVELS...ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA ENCOMPASSES 24 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SIX COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS). DESPITE THE RECENT POSITIVE NEWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT TO FULLY RELIEVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...AS NOTABLE SUBSOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER DEFICITS STILL LINGER FROM THE INTENSE DRYNESS THAT MARKED MOST OF SUMMER-FALL 2012. JUST OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS SINCE THE START OF JUNE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA HAS OBSERVED WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. IF THIS OVERALL DRY PATTERN SHOULD HAPPEN TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE WEEKS...THE RECENT DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN NORTHEAST AREAS COULD STEADILY DEGRADE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS FROM WEATHER FORECAST COMPUTER MODELS THAT THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE SHOULD FEATURE MORE RAINFALL THAN THE FIRST HALF. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND D4 /EXCEPTIONAL/. ANOTHER CATEGORY...D0...IS USED TO INDICATE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...WHICH IS ONE STEP BELOW MODERATE DROUGHT. IT IS ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BECAUSE OF HIGHLY LOCAL VARIATIONS IN THE SEVERITY OF DROUGHT...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ONLY PAINTS A GENERALIZED PICTURE OVER A LARGE AREA. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SEVERE WATER SHORTAGES OR CROP FAILURES WITHIN AREAS NOT DESIGNATED AS HAVING SEVERE OR WORSE DROUGHT...JUST AS THERE COULD BE LOCATIONS WITH ADEQUATE WATER SUPPLIES WITHIN DROUGHT-INDICATED AREAS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF JUNE 11TH...PORTIONS OF THREE OF THE 30 LOCAL COUNTIES ARE CLASSIFIED IN D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (THE WORST-POSSIBLE CATEGORY)...NINE COUNTIES CONTAIN CATEGORY D3 EXTREME DROUGHT...11 COUNTIES CONTAIN CATEGORY D2 SEVERE DROUGHT...AND SEVEN COUNTIES FEATURE NO WORSE THAN CATEGORY D1 MODERATE DROUGHT (SEE DETAILED LISTING BELOW). IN FACT...MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MITCHELL COUNTY KANSAS IS NOW VOID OF OFFICIAL DROUGHT...DESPITE REMAINING IN CATEGORY D0 ABNORMALLY DRY. THIS MARKS THE FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY-JULY 2012 THAT ANY PORTION OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA HAS FEATURED SOMETHING "BETTER" THAN D1 MODERATE DROUGHT. THE FOLLOWING IS A SPECIFIC BREAKDOWN OF COUNTIES BY DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION WITHIN THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF JUNE 11TH (PLEASE NOTE THAT IF A COUNTY CONTAINS MORE THAN ONE CATEGORY...THE MOST SEVERE ONE IS NOTED EVEN IF IT CLIPS ONLY A SMALL AREA): EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) FURNAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA..AND ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT POSSIBLE IMPACTS INCLUDE EXCEPTIONAL AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES...AND SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS AND WELLS...CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES. EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) GOSPER...PHELPS...HARLAN...FRANKLIN...DAWSON...BUFFALO AND KEARNEY COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND SMITH AND OSBORNE COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...IN EXTREME DROUGHT POSSIBLE IMPACTS INCLUDE MAJOR CROP/PASTURE LOSSES AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS. SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) VALLEY...GREELEY...SHERMAN...HOWARD...NANCE...HALL...ADAMS...WEBSTER AND NUCKOLLS COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...IN SEVERE DROUGHT POSSIBLE IMPACTS INCLUDE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CROP AND PASTURE LOSSES...AND WATER RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUIRED WITH WATER SHORTAGES COMMON. MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) MERRICK...POLK...HAMILTON...YORK...CLAY...FILLMORE AND THAYER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...IN MODERATE DROUGHT...SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURE IS POSSIBLE. SOME WATER SHORTAGES DEVELOP OR ARE IMMINENT...AND VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FEDERAL...STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS...AS OF JUNE 12TH...ALL 30 COUNTIES IN THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA WERE DESIGNATED AS PRIMARY COUNTIES IN A 2013 FEDERAL DROUGHT DISASTER BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA). AS A RESULT...AG PRODUCERS IN ALL COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE ELIGIBLE FOR EMERGENCY AID. FOCUSING SPECIFICALLY ON THE SIX NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES...THEY HAVE REMAINED UNDER A STATE-DESIGNATED DROUGHT EMERGENCY SINCE JULY 2012. PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY CONSERVATION RAMPED UP DURING THE LATE SUMMER OF 2012...AND AS OF MAY 31ST THE COMMUNITIES OF LOGAN AND PHILLIPSBURG IN PHILLIPS COUNTY...ALONG WITH PARTS OF THE OSBORNE COUNTY RURAL WATER DISTRICT WERE INDICATED TO BE IN A STAGE 1 WATER WATCH. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AS OF JUNE 9TH...CONTINUED TO SHOW SOLID IMPROVEMENT OVER PREVIOUS MONTHS THANKS TO THE HEALTHY RAINFALL MUCH OF THE AREA SAW DURING MAY. SOIL MOISTURE WAS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...ACCORDING TO THE USDA NEBRASKA CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION REPORT FOR THE WEEK ENDING JUNE 9TH...SOYBEAN PLANTING WAS NEARLY COMPLETE AND SOME WHEAT FIELDS WERE STARTING TO TURN COLOR...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES EXPECTING HARVEST TO BEGIN IN EARLY JULY. STATE-AVERAGED TOPSOIL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...RATING 27 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT AND 69 PERCENT ADEQUATE...VERSUS 36 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT FIVE WEEKS AGO. ALTHOUGH SUBSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES CONTINUED TO LAG BEHIND...IT ALSO EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT VERSUS FIVE WEEKS AGO...DECREASING FROM 84 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT TO ONLY 58 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT. CROP-WISE...THE EARLY CORN AND SOYBEAN STANDS BOTH RATED 75 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT...WHILE WHEAT WAS NOT AS FAVORABLE AT 50 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR. ALFALFA CONDITIONS RATED 49 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT AND ONLY 17 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR. HAY AND FORAGE SUPPLIES RATED 73 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT...3 PERCENT WORSE THAN FIVE WEEKS AGO...AND STOCK WATER SUPPLIES CHECKED IN 14 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT...A 7 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT. SINCE FIVE WEEKS AGO...PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION IMPROVED FROM 70 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR TO ONLY 46 PERCENT. TO THE SOUTH IN KANSAS...THE USDA CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION REPORT FOR THE WEEK ENDING JUNE 9TH INDICATED THAT TOPSOIL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL DISTRICT HAD RECENTLY DEGRADED A BIT...RATING 31 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT AND 65 PERCENT ADEQUATE (VERSUS 15 PERCENT AND 82 PERCENT...RESPECTIVELY AS OF MAY 5TH). SUBSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES EXHIBITED ONLY THE SLIGHTEST IMPROVEMENT VERSUS FIVE WEEKS AGO...BUT STILL RATED 59 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT. THE STATE-AVERAGED WHEAT CROP RATED 47 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR...AND ONLY 28 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. HOWEVER...THE VERY YOUNG CORN AND SOYBEAN CROP RATED 60 PERCENT AND 64 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT...RESPECTIVELY. STATE-AVERAGED RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONS RATED 45 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR...DOWN FROM 62 PERCENT ON MAY 5TH. HAY AND FORAGE SUPPLIES HAD ALSO IMPROVED SLIGHTLY...WITH POOR TO VERY POOR RATINGS DECREASING FROM 71 PERCENT TO 59 PERCENT. THIS SLIGHT IMPROVING TREND WAS ALSO NOTED IN STOCK WATER SUPPLIES...CHECKING IN AT 35 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT...VERSUS 48 PERCENT FIVE WEEKS AGO. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...AS OF JUNE 12TH...FIRE MANAGEMENT AGENCIES INDICATED THAT THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA HAD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE PREVALENT HEAT AND LACK OF RAIN ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST WEEK. AS OF JUNE 11TH...OSBORNE COUNTY WAS INDICATED TO HAVE A COUNTY BURN BAN. WITHIN THE 24 SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES...FUEL CHARACTERISTICS ARE CURRENTLY NOT INDICATED TO BE AS FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER...PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE FUEL CHARACTERISTICS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME BASED ON SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CLIMATE SUMMARY (INCLUDING PRECIPITATION TABLES)... AS OF THIS WRITING...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA REMAINS IN A LONG-LASTING DROUGHT SITUATION RANGING FROM MODERATE TO EXCEPTIONAL IN MAGNITUDE...ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS A RATHER NOTABLE NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST DISPARITY IN RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA...WHILE SEVERAL SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE MAINTAINED EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT LEVELS. TAKING A STEP BACK AND LOOKING AT THE LONGER-TERM PRECIPITATION PICTURE SO FAR THIS CALENDAR YEAR (SINCE JANUARY 1ST)...MOST OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA HAS MEASURED BETWEEN 75 AND 115 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FIRST TABLE BELOW. ALTHOUGH THIS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS BY NO MEANS PUT AN END TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS...IT HAS AT LEAST EASED THE SEVERITY SINCE LAST FALL. ONE OF THE WETTEST OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN THE 30-COUNTY AREA SO FAR THIS YEAR IS GENOA IN EASTERN NANCE COUNTY...WITH 16.80 INCHES...OR 136 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IN CONTRAST...ONE OF THE DRIEST SITES SO FAR THIS YEAR HAS BEEN PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS WITH ONLY 6.43 INCHES...OR 57 PERCENT OF NORMAL. TURNING TO THE MOST RECENT RAINFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF JUNE...THE OPERATIVE WORD HAS BEEN DRY. ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE MEASURED OVER ONE INCH...LARGELY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ROOKS...OSBORNE AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KANSAS...THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA HAS REGISTERED NO MORE THAN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-HALF INCH...OR WELL UNDER HALF OF NORMAL. DURING MAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST VERSUS SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES BECAME QUITE PRONOUNCED. GEOGRAPHICALLY...IT WAS A FAIRLY EVEN-SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF ABOVE NORMAL AMOUNTS FOCUSED NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON-MINDEN-SUPERIOR NEBRASKA...AND THE MAJORITY OF BELOW NORMAL TOTALS SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE...AND INCLUDING MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIKE JUNE THUS FAR...MAY GOT OFF TO A FAIRLY SLOW START RAINFALL-WISE...WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE FIRST 3+ WEEKS BEFORE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTLED IN LATE. A FEW OF THE WETTEST OFFICIAL MAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS INCLUDED 9.20 INCHES THREE MILES NORTHEAST OF SHELBY AND 8.29 INCHES AT CLAY CENTER...WHILE A FEW OF THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WERE 1.51 INCHES AT LOGAN KS AND 1.57 INCHES AT CAMBRIDGE. IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TOTALED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2.50 AND 6.50 INCHES. INTERESTINGLY...THE 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 3.09 INCHES IN GRAND ISLAND BETWEEN MAY 24TH-25TH WAS MORE THAN ALL CUMULATIVE RAIN THAT FELL DURING THE FOUR-MONTH PERIOD BETWEEN JUNE-SEPTEMBER 2012 (2.84 INCHES). THE SECOND TABLE BELOW COMBINES PRECIPITATION TOTALS/DEPARTURES FROM MAY AND THE FIRST 12 DAYS OF JUNE...AND REALLY BRINGS TO LIGHT THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST DIFFERENCES. LOOKING BACK TO APRIL...AT LEAST 60 PERCENT OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA BENEFITED FROM ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...AND EVEN THOSE AREAS THAT CHECKED IN BELOW NORMAL WERE TYPICALLY ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW. THANKS LARGELY TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EVENING OF APRIL 8TH INTO THE EARLY MORNING OF APRIL 9TH...THE HIGHEST MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 3-5+ INCHES WERE CONCENTRATED WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR RUNNING ROUGHLY 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM NEAR HOLDREGE-RAVENNA-FULLERTON. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS WELL-TIMED AND WELL-PLACED...AS MANY OF THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES HAD BEEN THE OVERALL-DRIEST WITHIN THE ENTIRE AREA SINCE SUMMER 2012. THE RELATIVELY WET APRIL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOLLOWED ON THE HEELS OF WHAT WAS A FAIRLY DRY MARCH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR RUNNING FROM NEAR SMITH CENTER KS...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HASTINGS...CLAY CENTER...GENEVA AND YORK NEBRASKA AREAS...ROUGHLY 70 PERCENT OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA SAW BELOW NORMAL MARCH PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS...HARLAN...GOSPER...DAWSON AND ROOKS KS. TRACING THE ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION ALL THE WAY BACK TO ITS INITIAL STAGES...THE MARCH-MAY 2012 TIME FRAME FEATURED THE WARMEST SPRING SEASON ON RECORD ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS ALLOWED THE GROWING SEASON TO GET OFF TO AN UNUSUALLY EARLY START...AND IN FACT THE 2012 GROWING SEASON WAS AMONG THE LONGEST...IF NOT THE LONGEST ON RECORD. SERIOUS DROUGHT PROBLEMS DID NOT REALLY TAKE HOLD UNTIL JUNE AND JULY 2012...WHEN THE COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ARRIVED JUST IN TIME FOR THE PEAK CROP GROWING SEASON. DURING THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER SEASON OF JUNE-AUGUST 2012...GRAND ISLAND RECORDED ITS DRIEST SUMMER OUT OF 117 YEARS ON RECORD...MEASURING ONLY 2.37 INCHES...WHICH WAS 8.45 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE 2012 CALENDAR YEAR WENT DOWN AS ONE OF THE TOP 10 OR 20-DRIEST YEARS ON RECORD. FOR A FEW SPOTS INCLUDING GRAND ISLAND...IT WAS IN FACT THE OUTRIGHT-DRIEST CALENDAR YEAR ON RECORD...AS CENTRAL NEBRASKA REGIONAL AIRPORT ONLY MEASURED 11.55 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION... ECLIPSING THE PREVIOUS LOW POINT OF 12.01 INCHES WAY BACK IN 1940. PRECIPITATION TABLES...THE FIRST TABLE BELOW HIGHLIGHTS TOTAL AMOUNTS AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL/PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR A FEW DOZEN SITES THROUGHOUT THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN 1-JUN 12). THESE DATA ARE PRIMARILY FROM NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...ALONG WITH A FEW AUTOMATED AIRPORT SITES. FROM THIS YEAR-TO-DATE TABLE...IT IS APPARENT THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS CONCENTRATED NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON-MINDEN-SUPERIOR NEBRASKA...WHILE THOSE PLACES WITH LESS THAN 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION SO FAR IN 2013 ARE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS...FRANKLIN ...FURNAS...GOSPER AND PHELPS. LOCATION PRECIP NORTH CENTRAL KS JAN 1-JUN 12 NORMAL DEPARTURE % NORMAL -------- -------- ------ --------- -------- ALTON 2SW 11.26 10.66 +0.60 106 BELOIT 11.16 11.44 -0.28 98 BURR OAK 8.96 10.93 -1.97 82 LOGAN 5.52 9.60 -4.08 58 NATOMA 10.46 10.73 -0.27 97 PHILLIPSBURG 6.43 11.24 -4.81 57 PLAINVILLE 4WNW 9.13 10.18 -1.05 90 SMITH CENTER 9.65 10.57 -0.92 91 LOCATION PRECIP SOUTH CENTRAL NE JAN 1-JUN 12 NORMAL DEPARTURE % NORMAL -------- -------- ------ --------- -------- CAMBRIDGE 5.94 9.39 -3.45 63 LEXINGTON 6SSE 7.47 9.93 -2.46 75 CLAY CENTER 6ESE 11.11 11.21 -0.10 99 ELWOOD 8S 6.69 9.84 -3.15 68 FRANKLIN 7.56 11.38 -3.82 66 GENOA 2W 16.80 12.36 +4.44 136 GENEVA 12.98 12.18 +0.80 107 GOTHENBURG 11.62 10.06 +1.56 116 GRAND ISLAND ARPT 13.50 11.80 +1.70 114 GREELEY 12.08 11.30 +0.78 107 HASTINGS AIRPORT 12.13 11.50 +0.63 105 HEBRON 13.54 13.14 +0.40 103 HOLDREGE 9.02 11.34 -2.32 80 KEARNEY AIRPORT 12.50 10.81 +1.69 116 MINDEN 9.03 10.88 -1.85 83 NELSON 7.70 11.67 -3.97 66 ORD AIRPORT 10.79 10.73 +0.06 101 OSCEOLA 14.35 12.48 +1.87 115 RAVENNA 11.05 11.40 -0.35 97 RED CLOUD 7.52 10.92 -3.40 69 ST.PAUL 14.44 11.42 +3.02 126 SUPERIOR 4E 11.73 11.90 -0.17 99 YORK 3N 12.71 13.17 -0.46 97 THE SECOND TABLE BELOW FOCUSES ON MORE RECENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL/PERCENT OF NORMAL BETWEEN MAY 1ST-JUNE 12TH...OR GENERALLY COVERING THE PAST SIX WEEKS. FROM THIS TABLE OF RECENT TRENDS...SIMILARITIES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE YEAR-TO-DATE DATA ABOVE...BUT THE NORTHEAST VERSUS SOUTHWEST DISPARITIES ARE EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED. FOR EXAMPLE...NORTHERN/EASTERN SITES SUCH AS OSCEOLA...ST. PAUL AND GREELEY HAVE MEASURED MORE THAN 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE MAY 1ST...WHILE SOUTHWESTERN SITES SUCH AS PHILLIPSBURG...LEXINGTON 6SSE (CANADAY PLANT) AND CAMBRIDGE HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL. LOCATION PRECIP NORTH CENTRAL KS MAY 1-JUN 12 NORMAL DEPARTURE % NORMAL -------- -------- ------ --------- -------- ALTON 2SW 5.38 5.08 +0.30 106 BELOIT 4.36 5.68 -1.32 77 BURR OAK 4.19 5.17 -0.98 81 LOGAN 1.70 4.83 -3.13 35 NATOMA 4.23 4.97 -0.74 85 PHILLIPSBURG 1.84 5.60 -3.76 33 PLAINVILLE 4WNW 4.76 4.85 -0.09 98 SMITH CENTER 3.52 5.36 -1.84 66 LOCATION PRECIP SOUTH CENTRAL NE MAY 1-JUN 12 NORMAL DEPARTURE % NORMAL -------- -------- ------ --------- -------- CAMBRIDGE 1.57 4.86 -3.29 32 LEXINGTON 6SSE 2.13 5.47 -3.34 39 CLAY CENTER 6ESE 5.99 5.93 +0.06 101 ELWOOD 8S 1.99 5.27 -3.28 38 FRANKLIN 2.81 6.11 -3.30 46 GENOA 2W 8.46 6.14 +2.32 138 GENEVA 6.93 6.55 +0.38 106 GOTHENBURG 6.62 5.54 +1.08 119 GRAND ISLAND ARPT 6.90 6.26 +0.64 110 GREELEY 7.33 5.75 +1.58 127 HASTINGS AIRPORT 6.00 6.26 -0.26 96 HEBRON 7.60 6.71 +0.89 113 HOLDREGE 2.87 6.06 -3.19 47 KEARNEY AIRPORT 6.63 5.75 +0.88 115 MINDEN 4.12 6.13 -2.01 67 NELSON 3.47 5.92 -2.45 59 ORD AIRPORT 6.05 5.88 +0.17 103 OSCEOLA 8.57 6.27 +2.30 137 RAVENNA 4.68 6.16 -1.48 76 RED CLOUD 3.18 5.89 -2.71 54 ST.PAUL 7.93 6.00 +1.93 132 SUPERIOR 4E 5.28 5.93 -0.65 89 YORK 3N 6.75 6.16 +0.59 110 FOR MUCH MORE INFORMATION ON MONTHLY AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE DATA FOR THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA...PLEASE REFER TO THE MONTHLY CLIMATE WEB STORIES ROUTINELY POSTED AT THE TOP OF THE NWS HASTINGS WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATER HALF OF JUNE...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER. WHILE MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. WITH THESE PASSING DISTURBANCES...THERE WILL BE VARIOUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SHOTS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST 6-10 DAY FORECAST FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER GENERALLY REFLECTS THIS THINKING...CALLING FOR AN UNUSUALLY HIGH CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE TIME PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ALSO FAVORS A NEAR OR SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE DRY START TO THE FORECAST PERIOD. SIMILAR TENDENCIES...FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE LATEST 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS WHICH STRETCH THROUGH THE 26TH OF THE MONTH. THE LATEST THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...VALID FOR THE ENTIRE MONTHS OF JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST AS A WHOLE...INDICATE THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER MONTHS. HOWEVER THANKS TO A FAIRLY WET SPRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO PROJECT FUTURE IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST. THESE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON THE OUTPUT FROM NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS AS WELL AS FORECASTER EXPERTISE WHICH TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION ONGOING GLOBAL AND TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC STATES...RECENT TRENDS IN OBSERVED DATA AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS (CPC) WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... THE AVERAGE STREAM FLOWS THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS THROUGH THE LOUP RIVER BASIN WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FLOWS IN THE PLATTE...LITTLE BLUE...AND REPUBLICAN RIVER BASINS. RIVER FLOWS THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WERE ALSO GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOLOMON RIVER BASIN OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED SOMETIME IN MID-LATE JULY...OR AS CHANGING CONDITIONS WARRANT. && RELATED WEB SITES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... TO REPORT EFFECTS OF THE DROUGHT IN YOUR AREA...PLEASE GO TO THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER AT: HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU AND CLICK ON SUBMIT A REPORT. INFORMATION FOR THE MEDIA MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/NEWSOUTREACH/INFORMATIONFORMEDIA.ASPX ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU NOAA DROUGHT PORTAL HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER HTTP://HPRCC.UNL.EDU NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE HTTP://WWW.CLIMATE.UNL.EDU KANSAS CLIMATE AND DROUGHT UPDATE FROM KANSAS WATER OFFICE HTTP://KWO.ORG/REPORTS_PUBLICATIONS/DROUGHT.HTM USDA WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/PUBS/INDEX.HTM NWS RIVER INFORMATION HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS USGS RIVER INFORMATION HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS HTTP://WWW.NWK.USACE.ARMY.MIL ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6365 NORTH OSBORNE DRIVE WEST HASTINGS, NE 68901-9163 PHONE: 402-462-4287 E-MAIL: W-GID.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ PFANNKUCH/SAR/WESELY
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