Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 PM EST THU FEB 9 2017

PRIMARY STATEMENT #2017P1

...Drought Conditions Improve but Persist for Much of Western North
Carolina, Northeast Georgia, and Upstate South Carolina While Drought
Ends for Cabarrus, Mecklenburg, Rowan, and Union Counties...

=====================================================================
SYNOPSIS...
=====================================================================

An increase in event intensity and frequency for the region resulted
in widespread near-normal to above-normal precipitation for northeast
Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and the North Carolina foothills and
Piedmont during January 2017.  This has alleviated drought severity
across the region, but important groundwater, streamwater, and
reservoir deficits remain and still must be overcome in order to
end drought conditions completely before the growing season commences
and water demands increase.

=====================================================================
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS BY COUNTY...
=====================================================================

Drought intensity from the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) occupying
at least 25% of surface area in each county is listed below...

------------
..GEORGIA...
------------

COUNTY       CATEGORY                  INTENSITY       D1 DROUGHT
             AS OF:                    AS OF:          BEGAN*:
             Aug| Oct| Nov| Dec| Feb   Feb. 07
             16 | 25 | 01 | 20 | 07

Elbert       D2 | D3 | D3 | D4 | D2    Severe          05/03/16
Franklin     D3 | D3 | D3 | D4 | D2    Severe          04/26/16
Habersham    D1 | D3 | D3 | D4 | D3    Extreme         04/26/16
Hart         D2 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D2    Severe          04/26/16
Rabun        D1 | D3 | D3 | D3 | D2    Severe          04/26/16
Stephens     D2 | D3 | D3 | D4 | D2    Severe          04/26/16

-------------------
..NORTH CAROLINA...
-------------------


COUNTY       CATEGORY                 INTENSITY       D1 DROUGHT
             AS OF:                   AS OF:          BEGAN*:
             Aug| Oct| Nov| Dec| Feb  Feb. 07
             16 | 25 | 01 | 20 | 07

Alexander    NO | D0 | D0 | D1 | D0   Abnormally Dry  11/08/16
Avery        NO | D1 | D1 | D1 | D0   Abnormally Dry  09/20/16
Buncombe     D0 | D2 | D2 | D2 | D1   Moderate        05/03/16
Burke        NO | D1 | D2 | D1 | D0   Abnormally Dry  09/20/16
Cabarrus     NO | NO | NO | D1 | NO   No Drought      Ended 01/24/17
Caldwell     NO | D1 | D1 | D1 | D0   Abnormally Dry  09/20/16
Catawba      NO | D0 | D1 | D1 | D0   Abnormally Dry  11/01/16
Cleveland    NO | D2 | D2 | D2 | D1   Moderate        09/27/16
Davie        NO | D0 | D0 | D1 | D0   Abnormally Dry  11/15/16
Gaston       D0 | D1 | D1 | D1 | D0   Abnormally Dry  10/25/16
Graham       D1 | D2 | D3 | D3 | D2   Severe          05/03/16
Haywood      D1 | D2 | D2 | D2 | D1   Moderate        05/03/16
Henderson    NO | D2 | D3 | D2 | D1   Moderate        09/20/16
Iredell      NO | D0 | D0 | D1 | D0   Abnormally Dry  11/08/16
Jackson      D1 | D2 | D2 | D3 | D2   Severe          05/03/16
Lincoln      D0 | D1 | D1 | D1 | D0   Abnormally Dry  10/25/16
Macon        D1 | D3 | D3 | D3 | D2   Severe          05/03/16
Madison      D0 | D1 | D2 | D2 | D1   Moderate        05/03/16
McDowell     NO | D1 | D2 | D2 | D1   Moderate        09/20/16
Mecklenburg  D0 | NO | NO | D1 | NO   No Drought      Ended 01/24/17
Mitchell     NO | D1 | D1 | D1 | D0   Abnormally Dry  09/20/16
Polk         NO | D2 | D3 | D2 | D1   Moderate        09/20/16
Rowan        NO | NO | NO | D1 | NO   No Drought      Ended 01/24/17
Rutherford   NO | D2 | D2 | D2 | D1   Moderate        09/20/16
Swain        D0 | D2 | D3 | D3 | D1   Moderate        05/03/16
Transylvania D0 | D2 | D3 | D2 | D1   Moderate        09/20/16
Union        NO | NO | NO | D1 | NO   No Drought      Ended 01/24/17
Yancey       D0 | D1 | D1 | D1 | D0   Abnormally Dry  09/20/16

-------------------
..SOUTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY       CATEGORY                 INTENSITY       D1 DROUGHT
             AS OF:                   AS OF:          BEGAN*:
             Aug| Oct| Nov| Dec| Feb  Feb. 07
             16 | 25 | 01 | 20 | 07

Abbeville    D3 | D3 | D3 | D3 | D2   Severe          05/03/16
Anderson     D2 | D3 | D3 | D3 | D2   Severe          05/03/16
Cherokee     D0 | D1 | D2 | D2 | D0   Abnormally Dry  09/27/16
Chester      D0 | D0 | D0 | D2 | D0   Abnormally Dry  11/15/16
Greenville   D0 | D3 | D3 | D3 | D1   Moderate        05/10/16
Greenwood    D2 | D1 | D1 | D2 | D1   Moderate        06/28/16
Laurens      D1 | D3 | D3 | D2 | D1   Moderate        07/12/16
Oconee       D1 | D3 | D3 | D3 | D2   Severe          04/26/16
Pickens      D1 | D3 | D3 | D3 | D1   Moderate        05/03/16
Spartanburg  D0 | D2 | D3 | D2 | D1   Moderate        07/05/16
Union        D0 | D1 | D1 | D2 | D1   Moderate        10/25/16
York         D0 | D1 | D1 | D2 | D0   Abnormally Dry  10/25/16

DEFINITIONS...

D1 DROUGHT BEGAN: The date D1 conditions began for a given county.
                  In order for a county to be removed from drought
                  and the D1 DROUGHT BEGAN date to be reset, the
                  county must receive a NO drought classification.
                  D0 is not technically a drought category, but it
                  also can indicate lingering drought conditions
                  remain and therefore cannot be used to end a
                  drought.

                  For example, if a county was in D1, then upgraded
                  to D0 for 4 weeks, then returns to D1 on the fifth
                  week, the DROUGHT BEGAN date is NOT reset because
                  D0 conditions never ended and the county therefore
                  never fully recovered from the drought.

USDM CLASSIFICATIONS...

D0 Abnormally Dry:     - 21st-30th precipitation percentile
                       - 21-30 percent chance of occurrence
                         IN ANY GIVEN YEAR
                       - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE,
                         occurs once every 3 years
                       - Going into drought: Short-term dryness
                         slowing planting, growth of crops or
                         pastures;
                       - Coming out of drought: Some lingering water
                         deficits; pastures or crops not fully
                         recovered;
                       - Streamflows below 30th percentile

D1 Moderate Drought:   - 11th-20th precipitation percentile
                       - 11-20 percent chance of occurrence
                         IN ANY GIVEN YEAR
                       - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE,
                         occurs once every 5 years
                       - Some damage to crops, pastures;
                       - Streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some
                         water shortages developing or imminent;
                       - Streamflows below 20th percentile

D2 Severe Drought:     - 6th-10th precipitation percentile
                       - 6-10 percent chance of occurrence
                         IN ANY GIVEN YEAR
                       - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE,
                         occurs once every 10 years
                       - Crop or pasture losses likely;
                       - Water shortages or restrictions common;
                       - Streamflows below 10th percentile

D3 Extreme Drought:    - 3rd-5th precipitation percentile
                       - 3-5 percent chance of occurrence
                         IN ANY GIVEN YEAR
                       - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE,
                         occurs once every 20 years
                       - Major crop/pasture losses;
                       - Widespread water shortages or restrictions;
                       - Streamflows below 5th percentile

D4 Exceptional Drought:- 0-2nd precipitation percentile
                       - Less than 2 percent chance of occurrence
                         IN ANY GIVEN YEAR
                       - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE,
                         occurs once every 50 years
                       - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture
                         losses;
                       - Shortages of water in reservoirs,
                         streams, and wells creating water
                         emergencies;
                       - Streamflows below 2nd percentile

--------------------------------------------------
..A NOTE ABOUT AUTUMN D3 and D4 CLASSIFICATIONS...
--------------------------------------------------

In early December, improvements were made to drought classifications
due to much-needed rainfall at the end of November and a reassessment
of impacts. Autumn is typically the driest part of the year and is
also at the end of the growing season.  Water usage is also declining
and reservoir storages are lowered to prepare for winter recharge.
Furthermore, if winter rainfall cannot restore reservoir and stream
levels to normal values, impacts will be far more severe than they
were this autumn, once the growing season commences and water usage
and recreational activities increase.  Therefore, drought conditions
will have to be closely monitored heading into the spring and summer
as D3- to D4-level impacts more severe than those observed this
autumn may be possible.

--------------------------------
..COMPARISON TO PAST DROUGHTS...
--------------------------------

The 2007-2009 drought was the worst drought for western North
Carolina, upstate South Carolina, and Northeast Georgia in terms of
severity and extent since the categorization of drought began in
2000.  The current drought is not yet as significant as the 2007-2009
drought.  For comparison purposes, the 2007-2008 drought began
(classified as the first presence of D1 conditions anywhere in the
region) in February 2007 and ended in early May of 2009 for a total
duration of 26 months.  During this drought there was an initial
intensity peak in late December of 2007, followed by a modest
improvement during the spring of 2008, but then the drought
re-strengthened through the summer and fall of 2008 before gradually
weakening through the winter and spring of 2009. Cabarrus,
Mecklenburg, Rowan, and Union counties in North Carolina experienced
an earlier end to the drought from October to early December of 2008.

=====================================================================
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
=====================================================================

-----------------
..AGRICULTURAL...
-----------------

During the late fall and winter months, new agricultural impacts
subside as the growing season ends.  However, ranchers are still
suffering from pasture damage and losses during the late summer and
fall months and the extremely premature use of hay to feed cattle
has been costly, requiring hay rationing and the continued sale of
cattle in order to offset expenses.  Cool-season pasture grasses
have recovered somewhat due to precipitation since late November,
but the recovery has been slow and often inadequate due to the
below-normal precipitation amounts.

Small grain plantings are responding well to the above-normal
temperatures but are generally behind schedule due to the dry fall.
Additionally, the above-normal temperatures are causing blueberries
to bud earlier than normal.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Drought Disaster Counties
------------------------as of January 4, 2017------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

As of January 4, 2017:

STATE           COUNTY        TYPE

Georgia         Elbert        Primary
Georgia         Franklin      Primary
Georgia         Habersham     Primary
Georgia         Hart          Primary
Georgia         Rabun      Primary
Georgia         Stephens      Primary

North Carolina  Buncombe      Primary
North Carolina  Burke         Primary
North Carolina  Cleveland     Primary
North Carolina  Gaston        Primary
North Carolina  Graham        Primary
North Carolina  Haywood       Primary
North Carolina  Henderson     Primary
North Carolina  Jackson       Primary
North Carolina  Lincoln       Primary
North Carolina  Macon         Primary
North Carolina  Madison       Primary
North Carolina  McDowell      Primary
North Carolina  Polk          Primary
North Carolina  Rutherford    Primary
North Carolina  Swain         Primary
North Carolina  Transylvania  Primary
North Carolina  Yancey        Primary
North Carolina  Avery         Contiguous
North Carolina  Caldwell      Contiguous
North Carolina  Catawba       Contiguous
North Carolina  Iredell       Contiguous
North Carolina  Mecklenburg   Contiguous
North Carolina  Mitchell      Contiguous

South Carolina  Abbeville     Primary
South Carolina  Anderson      Primary
South Carolina  Cherokee      Primary
South Carolina  Chester       Primary
South Carolina  Greenville    Primary
South Carolina  Greenwood     Primary
South Carolina  Laurens       Primary
South Carolina  Oconee        Primary
South Carolina  Pickens       Primary
South Carolina  Spartanburg   Primary
South Carolina  Union         Primary
South Carolina  York          Primary

For more information on requesting assistance, please visit:
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/
disaster-assistance-program/index

---------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------
..RECREATIONAL...
-----------------

During the winter months, recreational impacts are minimized as the
cooler air and water temperatures reduce activity.  Nevertheless,
Savannah Basin lakes continue to experience well-below target
reservoir levels and impacts to boat ramps, docks, beaches, marinas,
and other recreational areas continue.  Visitors are encouraged to
contact reservoir operators before travelling in order to stay
abreast of specific access point closures.

Visitors and residents to Lake Hartwell are being advised to take
greater care when boating and fishing as the well-below target
reservoir levels are revealing additional obstructions such as rocks
and tree stumps or bringing underwater obstructions closer to the
surface.  Some lake coves have dried up to unnavigable and/or
unusable levels.  As a result, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is
strongly advising boaters to stay within the main channel whenever
possible.  Declining reservoir pools and drying coves are forcing
residents and marina operators to move or close docks and relocate
boats.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------ KNOWN BOAT RAMP/ACCESS CLOSURES*------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

RESERVOIR | RAMP/ACCESS AREA          | NOTES

Hartwell  | Apple Island              |
Hartwell  | Broyles                   | Left and Right Lanes Closed
Hartwell  | Cleveland                 |
Hartwell  | Durham                    |
Hartwell  | Friendship                | Left Lane Closed
Hartwell  | Jarrett                   |
Hartwell  | Oconee Point Campground   |
Hartwell  | Paynes Creek Campground   | Inside Ramp Closed
Hartwell  | Poplar Springs            | Left Lane Closed
Hartwell  | River Forks               | Right Lane Closed
Hartwell  | Spring Branch             |
Hartwell  | Springfield Campground    |
Hartwell  | Tabor                     |
Hartwell  | Townville                 |
Hartwell  | Walker Creek              |
Norman    | Ramsey Creek              | 2 of 4 Ramps Closed
Norman    | Blythe Landing            | 2 of 4 Ramps Closed
Wylie     | South Point               | 3 of 6 Ramps Closed
Wylie     | Buster Boyd               | 2 of 4 Ramps Closed
Wylie     | Allison Creek             | 2 of 4 Ramps Closed

DEFINITIONS:
*CLOSURES = Closures may not be due to drought and may be due to
            scheduled maintenance.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------ MAINSTEM RIVER RUNNABLE STATUS -------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

RIVER             | RUNNABLE (BOATING) STATUS

Broad (GA)        | Not Recommended
Broad (NC)        | Lower Runnable
Broad (SC)        | Lower Runnable
Catawba           | Above Lake James: Lower Runnable
Chattooga         | Upper: Not Recommended / Lower: Lower Runnable
Enoree            | Upper: Lower Runnable / Lower: Not Recommended
French Broad      | Upper Fks: Not Recommended / Main: Lower Runnable
Little Tennessee  | Lower Runnable
Nantahala         | Not Recommended
Pacolet           | Not Recommended
Pigeon            | Upper Fks: Not Recommended / Main: Lower Runnable
Reedy             | Upper: Not Recommended / Lower: Lower Runnable
Rocky (NC)        | Runnable
Saluda            | Not Recommended
Swannanoa         | Not Recommended
Tallulah          | Not Recommended
Tuckasegee        | Not Recommended
Tyger             | Not Recommended
Yadkin            | Upper: Not Recommended / Lower: Lower Runnable

SOURCE: http://www.americanwhitewater.org

Users are advised to exercise caution along below-normal runs and
avoid below-recommended level rivers as additional protrusions
become visible or reside just below the surface.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------------
..WATER RESTRICTIONS...
-----------------------

Keowee-Toxaway River Basin Status...
------------------------------------

As of February 1st, 2017, the Keowee-Toxaway River basin is currently
in Stage 2 of the Low Inflow Protocol established by the
Keowee-Toxaway Drought Management Advisory Group.

Large water intake users, including municipal, industrial, and power
plant users, are required to reduce withdrawals from Lake Keowee by a
minimum of 5-10% from normal intake. This may impact the water
supplies of communities that rely on Lake Keowee.  Furthermore,
voluntary water conservation is encouraged for all other users of the
Keowee-Toxaway basin water supply.

For additional information, please refer to the following website:
https://www.duke-energy.com/lakes

Catawba River Basin Status...
-----------------------------

As of February 1st, 2017, the Catawba River basin is currently in
Stage 1 of the Low Inflow Protocol established by the Catawba-Wateree
Drought Management Advisory Group.

Water usage is being closely monitored and users are being asked to
voluntarily reduce irrigation to two days each week (Tuesday and
Saturday).

For additional information, please refer to the following website:
https://www.duke-energy.com/lakes

Little Tennessee River Basin Status...
--------------------------------------

As of February 1, 2017, several Nantahala and Tuckasegee River
basin reservoirs, including Bear Creek Lake, Lake Glenville,
Tanasee Creek Lake, and Wolf Creek Lake are in Stage 1 of the
Low Inflow Protocol established by Duke Energy.

This has the principal effect of reducing releases to conserve
remaining pool but may also impact water supply for any
municipalities or residents that rely on these lakes.

For additional information, please refer to the following website:
https://www.duke-energy.com/lakes

Savannah Basin Status...
------------------------

Since September 19th, 2016, Lake Hartwell, Richard B. Russell Lake,
and Lake Thurmond have been in in Level 2 of the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers` Drought Management Plan.  As reservoir levels decrease,
impacts are possible for local municipalities that rely on these
lakes for water supply.  The reductions in discharge from Thurmond
Dam as a result of the Level 2 status is reducing generation of
hydroelectric power for the Southeastern Power Administration.

For additional information, please refer to the following website:
http://balancingthebasin.armylive.dodlive.mil/

---------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------- KNOWN WATER RESTRICTIONS -----------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

STATE            CITY, COUNTY, or PROVIDER   STAGE  TYPE

Georgia        | Elbert County             | 1    | Voluntary
Georgia        | Franklin County           | 1    | Voluntary
Georgia        | Habersham County          | 2    | Mandatory
Georgia        | Hart County               | 1    | Voluntary
Georgia        | Rabun County              | 1    | Voluntary
Georgia        | Stephens County           | 1    | Voluntary

North Carolina | Alexander                 | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Banner Elk                | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Beech Mountain            | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Belmont                   | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Bryson City               | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Burke County              | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Burnsville                | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Caldwell County           | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Canton                    | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Catawba County            | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Charlotte                 | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Cherryville               | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Concord                   | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Gastonia                  | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Harrisburg                | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Hendersonville            | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Hickory                   | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Junaluska Sanitary Dist.  | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Kannapolis                | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Lincoln County            | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Old Fort                  | NA   | Voluntary
North Carolina | McAdenville               | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Montreat                  | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Mooresville               | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Sapphire                  | NA   | Mandatory
North Carolina | Sugar Mountain            | NA   | Mandatory
North Carolina | Tryon                     | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Union County              | 2    | Mandatory
North Carolina | Western Carolina Univ.    | 1    | Voluntary

South Carolina | City of Union             | NA   | Voluntary
South Carolina | York County               | 1    | Voluntary
South Carolina | Greenville Water          | NA   | Voluntary

---------------------------------------------------------------------

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

North Carolina: For detailed water management plans and required
                calls-to-action for your community, please visit:
                http://www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/reporting/
                displaystate.php?sby=facility

Charlotte:      Irrigation only on Tuesday and Saturday, 6pm-6am,
                only 1-inch of water per week;
                No residential car washing;
                No pool filling, no fountains;
                http://charlottenc.gov/Water/Pages/
                DroughtCentral.aspx
Concord,
Harrisburg,
Kannapolis:     http://www.concordnc.gov/Resident/Community-
                News/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/882
Greenville
Water:          Outdoor watering only twice-per-week between 7pm and
                8am for no more than 10 minutes
                https://www.greenvillewater.com/
                dry-weather-leads-to-voluntary-water-restrictions/

York County:    Outdoor watering limited to only two days per week;
                Reduce outdoor washing

Hendersonville: Customers to reduce water usage by 10%


Calls to Action...
------------------

The public in encouraged to contact their local municipalities to
confirm the lack of water restrictions in their specific area.
Please be mindful of drought conditions in your area even if your
community is not officially under water restrictions.  Limit outdoor
watering and conserve water use indoors whenever possible.

--------------------
..WILDFIRE DANGER...
--------------------

Advisories...
-------------

No advisories are in effect as of early February 2017.

Current Wildfires...
--------------------

There are no current non-prescribed wildfires ongoing. Prescribed
burns will be normal throughout the remainder of the winter and
into early spring.  For more information, please visit:

http://www.state.sc.us/forest/scfires.htm
http://www.state.sc.us/forest/scnotifs.htm
http://www.fs.usda.gov/nfsnc
http://www.ncforestservice.gov/fire_control/sit_report.htm

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------- NOTABLE (LARGE-INCIDENT) FIRES DURING CURRENT DROUGHT -------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

STATE | LOCATION / INCIDENT                 | SIZE   | CONTAINMENT
                                              (ac)     (%) | DATE

NC    | May Branch, Nantahala Lake   / 5080 |    175 | 100 | 11/12/16
NC    | Dobson Rdge, Qualla Boundary / 5097 |    756 | 100 | 11/25/16
NC    | Rocky Knob, 8 W Franklin     / 5077 |  1,130 | 100 | 11/27/16
NC    | Cliffside, 3 NW Highlands    / 5081 |    110 | 100 | 11/27/16
NC    | Moses Ck, 4 NW Cullowhee     / 5083 |    103 | 100 | 11/27/16
NC    | Avey Branch, Santeetlah Lake / 5089 |  1,200 | 100 | 11/27/16
NC    | Ferebee, 1 N Nantahala       / 5093 |  3,175 | 100 | 11/27/16
NC    | Muskrat Vly, 7.5 SW Franklin / 5099 |    104 | 100 | 11/27/16
NC    | Cathey Gp, 3 NE Wolf Ck Lake / 5105 |    123 | 100 | 11/27/16
NC    | Maple Sprngs, Santeetlah Lk  / 5090 |  7,788 | 100 | 12/02/16
NC    | Boteler, 6 E Hayesville      / 5075 |  9,036 | 100 | 12/03/16
NC    | Dicks Creek, 2 NW Sylva      / 5082 |    729 | 100 | 12/03/16
NC    | Tellico, 3 S Almond          / 5084 | 13.874 | 100 | 12/03/16
NC    | Clear Creek, 3 NW Plsnt Grdns/ 5106 |  3,163 | 100 | 12/03/16
NC    | Camp Branch, 7 W Franklin    / 5110 |  3,422 | 100 | 12/03/16
NC    | Old Roughy, Santeetlah Lk    / 5098 |    657 | 100 | 12/05/16
SC    | Pinnacle Mtn, 10.5 N Pickens / 5108 | 10,623 | 100 | 12/05/16
NC    | Sugar Cove, 10 NW Marion     / NA   |    577 | 100 | 02/07/17

For more information about any fires with an incident number, please
visit: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/
(e.g., https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5108/)

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Calls to Action...
------------------

Residents are encouraged to contact their local municipalities,
including their local county forest ranger prior to burning leaves
and yard debris.  Small leaf fires can quickly grow out of control
during periods of extreme dryness, as other vegetation and
decomposing organic materials on the surface are more prone to
ignition.  Please exercise extreme caution, monitor the latest
weather forecasts for lightning and winds and obey all local burn
ban ordinances for your safety and the protection of your
property.  Careless debris burning is the top cause of wildfires.

Smokers need to properly dispose of cigarettes as even the smallest
spark can ignite a wildfire. Campers should clear a 10 foot safe
area around their campfires and never leave campfires unattended.
All yard debris and camp fires must be completely extinguished
before unattending.

South Carolina state law requires residents outside of town or city
limits to notify the SC Forestry Commission prior to burning
outdoors!  Please visit the following website to call a toll-free
number in your county prior to burning yard debris:
http://www.state.sc.us/forest/fyard.htm

For more information about the North Carolina Open Burning Rule,
please visit: https://deq.nc.gov/about/divisions/air-quality/
air-quality-enforcement/open-burning

Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook...
----------------------------------------------

The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook from the NIFC
calls for NEAR NORMAL fire potential through May 2017.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------- FIRE DANGER and KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) ---------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

              CURRENT         KBDI**     KBDI DEPARTURE
REGION*       FIRE            (2/1)      FROM NORMAL
              DANGER (2/2)               (2/1)

NC Piedmont   Moderate      | <100-200 | - 50-+200 Slightly Abv Nrml
NC Foothills  Moderate      | <100     | - 50-+100 Near Normal
NC Nrn Mnts   Moderate      | <100     | - 50-+ 50 Normal
NC Cntl Mnts  Moderate      | <100-200 | - 50-+200 Slightly Abv Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   Moderate      | <100-200 | - 50-+200 Slightly Abv Nrml

SC Mnts/      Moderate      | <100-200 | - 50-+200 Slightly Abv Nrml
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   Low-Moderate  | <100-200 | - 50-+200 Slightly Abv Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   Moderate      | <100     | - 50-+ 50 Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Moderate      | <100     | - 50-+100 Near Normal

DEFINITIONS...

*A list of all counties and their assigned geographical region
appears near the end of the Drought Information Statement.

**KBDI and measures the impact of evapotranspiration and
precipitation on moisture deficiencies in the upper soil layer and
the layer of decomposing organic materials just above the soil. It
is derived solely from normal annual precipitation, daily
precipitation amount, and daily maximum air temperature.

A value of zero represents no moisture deficiency while a value of
800 is the maximum deficiency measured.  This means for a value of
800, it will take 8.00 inches of rainfall in 24-hours to reduce the
index to zero or saturation.

KBDI =  0-200: Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high
               and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical
               of spring dormant season following winter
               precipitation.

KBDI =200-400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower
               litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to
               contribute to fire intensity.

KBDI =400-600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and
               duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and
               will burn actively.

KBDI =600-800: Often associated with more severe drought with
               increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning
               fires with significant downwind spotting can be
               expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn
               actively at these levels.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE SUMMARY...
=====================================================================

-------------------------------------------
..OBSERVED WEATHER OVER THE PAST 90 DAYS...
-------------------------------------------

November
--------

November 2016 was an extremely dry month region-wide until its final
three days, when the first significant cool-season system moved
through the region.  A total of five notable cold fronts moved
across the area during the month, and each one brought a brief period
of cooler temperatures (generally 0-15 degrees below normal), but
the majority of the month featured high temperatures generally 5-15
degrees above normal.  November average temperatures at the three
major airports were as follows:

---------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------- AVERAGE TEMPERATURES for NOVEMBER 2016 ---------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                             DEPART
              AVG    NORMAL  from      WARM   RECORDS
SITE          TEMP   TEMP    NORMAL    RANK   BEGAN
              (deg)  (deg)   (deg)

AVL Airport | 50.6 | 47.3  |  +3.3  |   8th | 1946
CLT Airport | 53.5 | 50.8  |  +2.7  |  17th | 1939
GSP Airport | 55.7 | 52.4  |  +3.3  |   6th | 1962

---------------------------------------------------------------------

The first of several cold fronts in November brought meager rainfall
to the region, with each front generally producing less than 0.25
inches to limited areas. Total accumulations through November 27th
were less than 0.50 inches region-wide.

The final frontal passage of the month was associated with a
deep and strong low pressure system over the upper Midwest and Great
Lakes and the resultant rainfall accumulations from November 28th to
November 30th were the most significant since late September. Total
accumulations ranged from 2 to 6 inches across the Georgia and
southern North Carolina mountains to 0.75 to 1.00 inches across the
southern Piedmont of North Carolina and the eastern Piedmont of
South Carolina.  The rainfall coincided with some strong to severe
thunderstorms across the Foothills and Piedmont, one of which was
responsible for an EF1 tornado across southern Greenville county.

Unfortunately, all the last event did was prevent widespread near-
record minimum rainfall accumulations for November across the
region. Region-wide, percents-of-normal for November rainfall ranged
from 10 to 50 percent.

December
--------

December 2016 was a much more active month in comparison to the
very dry November period, as the region was impacted by two notable
cold-air wedge fronts, five cold fronts, and three warm fronts.
These boundaries and associated low-pressure systems resulted in
significant temperature swings throughout the first 20 days of
December, as the region oscillated between high temperatures 5 to
20 degrees above normal in advance of each cold front or following a
warm frontal passage and 5 to 20 degrees below normal within the cold
air wedges or behind the cold frontal passages.  The latter half of
the month was generally much warmer than the first as the region
remained underneath warm southwesterly flow aloft on the northwest
side of a strong subtropical ridge.  This pattern had the effect of
limiting the strength of the cold frontal passages and the final cold
front of the month stalled and retreated north across the area as a
warm front.  Consequently, high temperatures generally remained
anywhere from 5 to 20 degrees above normal from December 22nd through
December 30th.  December 2016 average temperatures at the three major
airports were as follows:

---------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------- AVERAGE TEMPERATURES for DECEMBER 2016 ---------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                             DEPART
              AVG    NORMAL  from      WARM   RECORDS
SITE          TEMP   TEMP    NORMAL    RANK   BEGAN
              (deg)  (deg)   (deg)

AVL Airport | 42.0 | 39.4  |  +2.6  |  20th | 1946
CLT Airport | 44.6 | 42.4  |  +2.2  |  29th | 1939
GSP Airport | 45.6 | 44.1  |  +1.5  |  20th | 1962

---------------------------------------------------------------------

While the weather pattern was certainly more active, it still was
fairly benign for the time of year.  The associated low pressure
systems were often either well north of the region, lacked deep
energy and moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, or were
concentrated to the south of the region along residual frontal
boundaries.

The month`s most significant precipitation events occurred at
the beginning and the end of the month.  The former began with the
region underneath a wedge of cold air which retreated as a warm
front and ended with a cold frontal passage, resulting in widespread
1.50 to 2.50 inches of precipitation.  The latter was the result of
a low-pressure wave riding along a retreating Midlands boundary,
producing 0.50 to 1.25 inches of precipitation across the central
and northern North Carolina mountains, a stripe of 0.75 to 1.25
inches from the Georgia mountains to the southern North Carolina
Piedmont, and less than 0.50 inches elsewhere.

As a result, monthly precipitation totals failed to
impress for most of the region, with only 50-90 percent of normal
precipitation observed.  The exception was across the central and
northern North Carolina mountains where monthly accumulations were
100-175 percent of normal.

January
--------

January 2017 finally brought widespread near-normal to above-normal
rainfall to much of the region, improving drought conditions
region-wide. The beginning of the month featured two notable
quasi-stationary frontal boundaries each with waves of low-pressure
riding along the fronts which induced widespread precipitation
across the region.  The latter system interacted with below-normal
temperatures to produce significant snowfall across the Carolina
mountains and foothills as well as the North Carolina Piedmont.
The widespread 4 to 10 inches of snow only equated to 0.50 to 1.00
inches of liquid equivalent, but the frigid temperatures following
the event (high temperatures plummeting to 20 to 25 degrees below
normal on January 8th) permitted a slow, multi-day melting which
provided much-needed and deep infiltration into the soil.

Following the cold wave, high temperatures rebounded dramatically
reaching a record-breaking 20 to 30 degrees above normal by
January 14th as a strong subtropical ridge took control of the
Southeast.  High temperatures oscillated in response to an active
period featuring multiple wedge, cold, and warm fronts but generally
stayed 5-25 degrees above normal through January 27. January 2017
average temperatures at the three major airports were as follows:

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------- AVERAGE TEMPERATURES for JANUARY 2017 ---------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                             DEPART
              AVG    NORMAL  from      WARM   RECORDS
SITE          TEMP   TEMP    NORMAL    RANK   BEGAN
              (deg)  (deg)   (deg)

AVL Airport | 44.2 | 37.1  |  +7.1  |   5th | 1946
CLT Airport | 47.6 | 40.2  |  +7.4  |   6th | 1939
GSP Airport | 48.7 | 42.2  |  +6.5  |   2nd | 1962

---------------------------------------------------------------------

The month began with a significant rainfall event resulting from
yet another stalled frontal boundary and associated waves of low
pressure.  The event brought widespread 1.50 to 3.00 inches of rain
to northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and the North Carolina
Piedmont with 0.50 to 2.00 inches across western North Carolina
through January 4th.

Another significant rainfall event impacted the region from January
20th through January 24th as an anomalously deep, closed upper low
propagated from the Mid-South to the Carolinas and induced a
critically deep, 985mb surface low pressure that moved through the
region. Convective elements within an environment of deep moisture
helped to enhance rainfall rates and the widespread 2.00 to 3.50
inches of rainfall observed across the North Carolina Piedmont
induced minor flooding within the Rocky and Catawba River
watersheds. Widespread 1.50 to 3.50 inches of rain were observed
across the remainder of the region with isolated 4.00 to 5.00
inch amounts in the central North Carolina mountains and the Blue
Ridge Escarpment.

While January was a welcomed change in precipitation amounts and
frequency, percent-of-normal values greater than 125 percent were
confined to the French Broad, Yadkin, and lower Catawba River basins
and the northern North Carolina mountains.  The near-normal
precipitation across the Georgia and South Carolina Piedmont as well
as the South Carolina foothills was insufficient to recharge
surface and sub-surface water supplies.  Furthermore, the southwest
North Carolina mountains and the Georgia mountains were the driest
areas in January with only 50 to 90 percent-of-normal precipitation
observed.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------- ESTIMATED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS --------------
---------  (December 6th, 2016 through February 6th, 2017) ----------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

              60-DAY                    DEPARTURE         60-DAY
              OBSERVED     60-DAY       FROM              PERCENT OF
REGION        PRECIP       NORMAL       NORMAL*           NORMAL
              (in)         (in)         (in)              (%)

NC Piedmont   4.00- 8.50 | 6.50- 8.00 | -3.00 to + 1.00 | 50-125
NC Foothills  3.50- 6.00 | 7.00-10.00 | -2.00 to - 5.00 | 40- 75
NC Nrn Mnts   5.50- 8.00 | 7.00- 9.00 | -3.00 to + 1.00 | 50-110
NC Cntl Mnts  5.00-11.00 | 5.00-15.00 | -5.00 to + 3.00 | 50-150
NC Srn Mnts   5.00- 9.00 | 7.50-15.00 |  0.00 to - 9.00 | 35- 90

SC Mnts/      5.00- 8.00 | 8.00-14.00 | -1.50 to - 8.00 | 40- 85
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   4.00- 8.00 | 7.00- 9.00 | -3.50 to + 1.00 | 40-110

GA NE Mnts/   6.00- 8.00 |10.00-15.00 | -3.00 to - 8.00 | 50- 75
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   5.00- 7.00 | 8.00-10.00 | -1.50 to - 4.00 | 40- 80

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------- RECORDS BROKEN SINCE DECEMBER 23, 2016 ---------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                                           NEW      PREVIOUS
DATE    SITE           TYPE                RECORD   RECORD (YEAR)

12/31 | Anderson     | Min Annual Precip | 25.07" | 31.80" (2007)
12/31 | Carnesville  | Min Annual Precip | 29.05" | 31.47" (1954)
12/31 | Clarkesville | Min Annual Precip | 37.35" | 43.68" (2006)
12/31 | Elberton     | Min Annual Precip | 27.61" | 31.51" (1986)
12/31 | Franklin     | Min Annual Precip | 36.83" | 38.35" (1986)
12/31 | Hartwell     | Min Annual Precip | 29.61" | 31.09" (1981)
12/31 | Laurens      | Min Annual Precip | 29.12" | 30.74" (1925)
12/31 | Rock Hill    | Min Annual Precip | 25.56" | 26.76" (2007)
12/31 | Walhalla     | Min Annual Precip | 34.60" | 38.49" (2007)
01/06 | CLT Airport  | Snowfall          |  0.1"  |     t  (1952)
01/13 | CLT Airport  | Max Temp          | 78     |    75  (2013)
01/16 | AVL Airport  | High Min Temp     | 49     |    47  (1947)
01/18 | CLT Airport  | Max Temp          | 75     |    71  (1937)
01/18 | GSP Airport  | Max Temp          | 78     |    71  (1928)
01/25 | GSP Airport  | Max Temp          | 74 T   |    74  (1909)

DEFINITIONS:

T = Tied
t = Trace

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------- MEASURED RAINFALL for DECEMBER 2016 -----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                               DEC    DEPT.     %
                              2016    FROM     OF  DRIEST     WET
CITY           COUNTY       PRECIP    NRML   NRML    RANK    RANK
                              (in)    (in)    (%)

GEORGIA
Carnesville  | Franklin    |  2.93 | -1.70 |  63% |  16th | >25th
Clarkesville | Habersham   |  4.19 | -1.20 |  78% |   8th |  18th
Clayton      | Rabun       |  5.14 | -1.50 |  77% | >25th | >25th
Elberton     | Elbert      |  3.53 | -0.43 |  89% | >25th | >25th
Hartwell     | Hart        |  3.16 | -1.18 |  73% | >25th | >25th
Toccoa       | Stephens    |  4.19 | -0.99 |  81% | >25th | >25th

NORTH CAROLINA
AVL Airport  | Buncombe    |  2.31 | -1.28 |  64% |  13th | >25th
Beech Mtn    | Avery       |  4.89 |  0.55 | 113% |   9th |   7th
Cherokee     | Swain       |  6.78 |  1.84 | 137% | >25th |  14th
CLT Airport  | Mecklenburg |  2.91 | -0.34 |  90% | >25th | >25th
Concord      | Cabarrus    |  2.76 | -0.43 |  87% | >25th | >25th
Franklin     | Macon       |  4.37 | -0.25 |  95% | >25th | >25th
Hickory      | Catawba     |  2.29 | -1.41 |  62% |  13th | >25th
Lenoir       | Caldwell    |  2.92 | -0.86 |  77% | >25th | >25th
Lincolnton   | Lincoln     |  2.35 | -1.52 |  61% |  18th | >25th
Marion       | McDowell    |  3.55 | -0.86 |  80% | >25th | >25th
Marshall     | Madison     |  3.02 |  0.17 | 106% | >25th | >25th
Mocksville   | Davie       |  2.20 | -1.38 |  61% |  20th | >25th
Monroe       | Union       |  3.08 | -0.65 |  83% | >25th | >25th
Salisbury    | Rowan       |  2.06 | -1.14 |  64% |  25th | >25th
Shelby       | Cleveland   |  2.29 | -1.80 |  56% |  18th | >25th
Tryon        | Polk        |  3.94 | -1.30 |  75% | >25th | >25th
Waynesville  | Haywood     |  4.54 |  0.45 | 111% | >25th | >25th

SOUTH CAROLINA
Anderson     | Anderson    |  2.04 | -2.07 |  50% |   8th | >25th
Chesnee      | Spartanburg |  2.54 | -1.75 |  59% |  19th | >25th
Chester      | Chester     |  3.24 | -0.35 |  90% | >25th | >25th
GRD Airport  | Greenwood   |  2.35 | -1.26 |  65% |   6th |  12th
GSP Airport  | Spartanburg |  2.69 | -1.42 |  65% |  14th | >25th
Laurens      | Laurens     |  2.91 | -1.05 |  73% | >25th | >25th
Rock Hill    | York        |  1.68 | -1.82 |  48% |   4th |  15th
Walhalla     | Oconee      |  3.71 | -1.47 |  72% | >25th | >25th

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------- MEASURED PRECIPITATION for JANUARY 2017 ---------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                               JAN    DEPT.     %
                              2017    FROM     OF  DRIEST     WET
CITY           COUNTY       PRECIP    NRML   NRML    RANK    RANK
                              (in)    (in)    (%)


GEORGIA
Carnesville  | Franklin    |  6.37 |  2.01 | 146% | >25th |  15th
Clarkesville | Habersham   |  5.85 |  0.14 | 102% |  17th |  10th
Clayton      | Rabun       |  5.37 | -0.93 |  85% | >25th | >25th
Elberton     | Elbert      |  5.67 |  1.35 | 131% | >25th |  21st
Hartwell     | Hart        |  5.12 |  0.82 | 119% | >25th | >25th
Toccoa       | Stephens    |  5.76 |  0.39 | 107% | >25th | >25th

NORTH CAROLINA
AVL Airport  | Buncombe    |  3.72 |  0.05 | 101% | >25th |  21st
Beech Mtn    | Avery       |  6.69 |  2.83 | 173% |  22nd |   5th
Cherokee     | Swain       |  5.14 |  0.27 | 106% | >25th |  25th
CLT Airport  | Mecklenburg |  5.72 |  2.31 | 168% | >25th |  10th
Concord      | Cabarrus    |  5.49 |  1.87 | 152% | >25th |  15th
Franklin     | Macon       |  Data Not Yet Available
Hickory      | Catawba     |  4.09 |  0.26 | 107% | >25th |  25th
Lenoir       | Caldwell    |  3.67 |  0.14 | 104% | >25th | >25th
Lincolnton   | Lincoln     |  4.98 |  1.13 | 129% | >25th |  16th
Marion       | McDowell    |  4.28 |  0.22 | 105% | >25th | >25th
Marshall     | Madison     |  3.05 |  0.00 | 100% | >25th | >25th
Mocksville   | Davie       |  Data Not Yet Available
Monroe       | Union       |  5.51 |  1.52 | 138% | >25th |  22nd
Salisbury    | Rowan       |  4.48 |  1.31 | 141% | >25th | >25th
Shelby       | Cleveland   |  4.83 |  0.79 | 120% | >25th | >25th
Tryon        | Polk        |  5.37 |  0.27 | 105% | >25th | >25th
Waynesville  | Haywood     |  3.66 | -0.65 |  85% | >25th | >25th

SOUTH CAROLINA
Anderson     | Anderson    |  4.57 |  0.72 | 119% | >25th | >25th
Chesnee      | Spartanburg |  5.65 |  1.68 | 142% | >25th |  21st
Chester      | Chester     |  5.43 |  1.30 | 131% | >25th |  24th
GRD Airport  | Greenwood   |  4.56 |  0.60 | 115% |  15th |   3rd
GSP Airport  | Spartanburg |  4.52 |  0.70 | 118% | >25th |  20th
Laurens      | Laurens     |  5.45 |  1.39 | 134% | >25th | >25th
Rock Hill    | York        |  Data Not Yet Available
Walhalla     | Oconee      |  5.92 |  0.95 | 119% | >25th | >25th

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------ ANNUAL PRECIPITATION for 2016 --------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                                       DEPT.     %
                              2016     FROM     OF  DRIEST    WET
CITY           COUNTY       PRECIP     NRML   NRML    RANK   RANK
                              (in)     (in)    (%)


GEORGIA
Carnesville  | Franklin    | 29.05 | -21.80 |  57% |  1st | >25th
Clarkesville | Habersham   | 37.35 | -22.94 |  62% |  1st |  22nd
Clayton      | Rabun       | 47.96 | -21.01 |  70% |  4th | >25th
Elberton     | Elbert      | 27.61 | -20.37 |  58% |  1st | >25th
Hartwell     | Hart        | 29.61 | -18.98 |  61% |  1st | >25th
Toccoa       | Stephens    | 35.95 | -21.43 |  63% |  2nd | >25th

NORTH CAROLINA
AVL Airport  | Buncombe    | 33.40 | -12.17 |  73% |  3rd | >25th
Beech Mtn    | Avery       | 43.40 |  -8.14 |  84% |  2nd |  11th
Cherokee     | Swain       | 44.38 |  -9.41 |  83% |  7th | >25th
CLT Airport  | Mecklenburg | 33.55 |  -8.08 |  81% |  4th | >25th
Concord      | Cabarrus    | 39.12 |  -6.79 |  85% | 14th | >25th
Franklin     | Macon       | 36.83 | -17.32 |  68% |  1st | >25th
Hickory      | Catawba     | 34.72 | -11.54 |  75% |  4th | >25th
Lenoir       | Caldwell    | 38.08 |  -9.59 |  80% | 10th | >25th
Lincolnton   | Lincoln     | 32.32 | -14.78 |  69% |  4th | >25th
Marion       | McDowell    | 41.05 | -11.20 |  79% | 12th | >25th
Marshall     | Madison     | 27.04 | -12.58 |  68% |  5th | >25th
Mocksville   | Davie       | 37.46 |  -7.13 |  84% | 15th | >25th
Monroe       | Union       | 35.65 | -11.32 |  76% |  9th | >25th
Salisbury    | Rowan       | 30.75 | -11.28 |  73% |  5th | >25th
Shelby       | Cleveland   | 30.34 | -17.55 |  63% |  2nd | >25th
Tryon        | Polk        | 41.45 | -20.32 |  67% |  2nd | >25th
Waynesville  | Haywood     | 32.08 | -15.64 |  67% |  3rd | >25th

SOUTH CAROLINA
Anderson     | Anderson    | 25.07 | -19.14 |  57% |  1st | >25th
Chesnee      | Spartanburg | 32.63 | -17.17 |  66% |  2nd | >25th
Chester      | Chester     | 38.81 |  -6.94 |  85% | 14th | >25th
GRD Airport  | Greenwood   | 27.21 | -17.51 |  61% |  2nd |  15th
GSP Airport  | Spartanburg | 34.43 | -12.76 |  73% |  2nd | >25th
Laurens      | Laurens     | 29.12 | -16.43 |  64% |  1st | >25th
Rock Hill    | York        | 25.56 | -18.08 |  59% |  1st |  18th
Walhalla     | Oconee      | 34.60 | -23.21 |  60% |  1st | >25th

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
PRECIPITATION and TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK*...
=====================================================================

* The weather, temperature, and precipitation outlook is based
on the best available guidance and weather pattern analysis at
the issuance time of this statement.

For the LATEST FORECAST for the region, please visit:
http://weather.gov/gsp
and enter your zip code or click on the Watch, Warning, and
Advisories (WWA) map.

For the LATEST DISCUSSION for the region, please visit:
http://weather.gov/gsp
and click on the Forecaster`s Discussion link below the WWA map

---------------------------------------------------------------------
---- 1-10 DAY FUTURE PRECIPITATION FORECAST and FLOOD POTENTIAL -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------

REGION        10-DAY      % OF      MAINSTEM     SMALL STREAM
              PRECIP      NORMAL    FLOOD PTNTL  FLOOD PTNTL
              (in)

NC Piedmont   0.25-0.75 |  35- 70 | Zero       | Zero
NC Foothills  0.50-1.00 |  45- 55 | Zero       | Zero
NC Nrn Mnts   0.75-1.25 |  60- 70 | NA         | Zero
NC Cntl Mnts  0.75-1.75 |  60- 70 | Zero       | Zero
NC Srn Mnts   0.75-1.50 |  50- 70 | Zero       | Zero

SC Mnts       0.50-1.25 |  35- 60 | NA         | Zero
SC Foothills  0.50-1.00 |  35- 55 | Zero       | Zero
SC Piedmont   0.25-0.75 |  35- 55 | Zero       | Zero

GA NE Mnts/   0.75-1.50 |  40- 60 | Zero       | Zero
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   0.25-0.75 |  25- 40 | Zero       | Zero

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
---------- 8-90 DAY PRECIPITATION and TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ----------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

For the latest 8-14 Day Outlook, please visit:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
interactive/index.php

For the latest 15-30 Day Outlook and Discussion, please visit:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

For the latest 30-90 Day Outlooks, please visit:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/


REGION        8-14 DAY          15-30 DAY         30-90 DAY
              PRECIPITATION     PRECIPITATION     PRECIPITATION
              OUTLOOK           OUTLOOK           OUTLOOK

NC Piedmont   Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml
NC Foothills  Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml
NC Nrn Mnts   Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml
NC Cntl Mnts  Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml

SC Mnts       Slight Blw Nrml | Above Normal    | Slight Blw Nrml
SC Foothills  Slight Blw Nrml | Above Normal    | Below Normal
SC Piedmont   Slight Blw Nrml | Above Normal    | Below Normal

GA NE Mnts/   Slight Blw Nrml | Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Below Normal    | Above Normal    | Below Normal


REGION        8-14 DAY          15-30 DAY         30-90 DAY
              TEMPERATURE       TEMPERATURE       TEMPERATURE
              OUTLOOK           OUTLOOK           OUTLOOK

NC Piedmont   Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml
NC Foothills  Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml
NC Nrn Mnts   Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml
NC Cntl Mnts  Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml

SC Mnts       Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml
SC Foothills  Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml
SC Piedmont   Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   Slight Abv Nrml | Well-Above Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Note that Equal-Chances means there are equal chances for
above-normal...normal...and below-normal precipitation during
the given period.  In other words, there is no clear signal for
precipitation during the given period.

----------------------------------------
..El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)...
----------------------------------------

The eastern Pacific is currently ENSO-Neutral, which means that the
sea surface temperatures near the equator in the central and
east-central Pacific Ocean are only slightly below average.  ENSO-
neutral conditions are expected to persist through June of 2017.
As a result, there exists no clear hemispheric signal that would
provide confidence in forecasting a departure from normal
precipitation heading through the spring and early summer months.

Therefore, medium-range (i.e., 8-14 day) weather patterns and
individual weather systems will have to be closely monitored, as
there are many other atmospheric signals that cannot be predicted
months in advance that will also have an influence on our weather.

=====================================================================
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY and OUTLOOK...
=====================================================================

--------------------
..IMPORTANT NOTES...
--------------------

It is very important to note that flash flooding and flooding
of smaller tributaries is still very possible during periods of
drought.  Several important and damaging flash floods have
were observed this past summer despite the drought.  Residents are
strongly encouraged to heed related flood advisories and warnings,
even during significant drought.

The winter and early spring months are a critical time for the water
system as widespread winter precipitation normally restores
streamflows and reservoir levels following the spotty, convective
nature of precipitation during the summer and the drier weeks of
early fall.  This recharge of the water system is critical for
adequate water supply heading into the late spring and summer of
2017.  When the winter begins in a significant drought, it takes a
greater amount of precipitation to adequately complete this recharge.

----------------------------
..SOIL and CROP MOISTURE*...
----------------------------

More frequent precipitation events have allowed soil moisture values
to recover slightly from the extreme anomalies present last autumn,
but the precipitation has not been frequent or significant enough
to allow for full recharge.  The effects of this incomplete recharge
can be measured throughout all hydrologic systems as without adequate
soil moisture content, saturation, runoff, and subsurface
infiltration cannot sufficiently occur.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
----- CPC SOIL/CROP MOISTURE ESTIMATES (1600-mm or 5.25ft Depth) ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------

              2/2           2/2                   2/4
              SOIL          SOIL      CHANGE      SHORT-TERM
              MOISTURE      MOISTURE  FROM        CROP MOISTURE
              ANOMALY       %ile      NOV 30      INDEX
REGION        (mm)          (%)       (mm)

NC Piedmont   - 20 to -100 | 10-40 | +20 to +40 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml
NC Foothills  - 60 to -100 |  5-20 | +20 to +40 | -1 - +2, Sl Ab Nrml
NC Nrn Mnts   - 60 to - 80 | 10-20 | +20 to +40 | -1 - +2, Sl Ab Nrml
NC Cntl Mnts  - 80 to -100 |  5-10 | +40 to +60 | +1 - +2, Sl Ab Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   -100 to -120 | <1- 5 | +40 to +60 | +1 - +2, Sl Ab Nrml

SC Mnts/      -120 to -140 |    <1 | +30 to +60 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   - 20 to - 80 |  5-40 | +20 to +80 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   -100 to -120 |    <1 | +40 to +60 | +1 - +2, Sl Ab Nrml
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   - 40 to -100 |  1-10 | +60 to +80 | +1 - +2, Sl Ab Nrml

DEFINITIONS:

*EVAPOTRANSPIRATION = The loss of moisture from the soil to the
                      atmosphere plus the loss of moisture from the
                      soil to vegetation.

*INTERPRETATION = Note that above-normal temperatures and
                  below-normal precipitation exacerbate the loss of
                  soil moisture through evapotranspiration, while
                  below-normal temperatures and above-normal
                  precipitation mitigates soil-moisture deficits.
                  However, heading into fall and winter, cooler
                  temperatures and less-active or dormant vegetation
                  reduce demands on the water system and while still
                  important, the effects of above-normal temperatures
                  and below-normal precipitation are lessened.

**CROP MOISTURE = Depicts short-term (< 1 month) dryness or wetness
  INDEX           impacting agriculture.  Negative values indicate
                  dryness, while positive values indicate wetness.
                  The index is not a depicter of medium-range (i.e.,
                  1-6 months) to long-range (i.e., >6 months)
                  drought.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------
..GROUNDWATER*...
-----------------

Most wells across the region have seen modest decreases in water
depth below the surface as rainfall amounts have increased across the
region since the very dry months of October and November.  However,
many of these wells are still well below their monthly median levels
and remain below the 50th percentile.  Therefore, groundwater
recharge has remained anemic this winter and is forecasted to remain
weak through February.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------ GROUNDWATER WELL MEASUREMENTS --------------------
---------------- Depth Below Ground Surface in Feet -----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                                             CHANGE***RECORD
                              DEPTH*  FEB**   SINCE   LOWEST  and
                                2/5  MEDIAN  12/22#   LEVEL   DATE
COUNTY       LOCATION          (ft)    (ft)    (ft)   (ft)

Burke        Glen Alpine      11.75 | 11.08 | -0.88 | 13.84, 09/04/11
Caldwell     Granite Falls    25.63 | 19.59 | +0.01 | 25.96, 01/14/17
Catawba      Oxford Resrch St 40.42 | 38.98 | +0.22 | 42.09, 01/14/13
Gaston       Pasour Mtn       42.27 | 37.63 | -1.29 | 44.66, 01/31/13
McDowell     Pleasant Gardens 30.45 | 28.95 | -1.09 | 31.89, 11/29/10
Union (NC)   Mineral Springs  37.65 | 39.84 | -0.50 | 42.70, 01/10/13
York         York Co Airport  25.14 | 25.89 | +1.86 | 29.69, 12/13/12

                                      CHANGE***       RECORD
                              DEPTH*  SINCE   %ile    LOWEST and
                                2/5   12/22#   ****   LEVEL  DATE
COUNTY       LOCATION          (ft)    (ft)   (2/5)   (ft)


Chester      Leeds Road       85.44 | +0.29 | >90th | 94.52, 01/12/14
Davie        Mocksville       17.64 | -1.06 | 25-50 | 23.15, 08/30/02
Haywood      near Cruso        6.60 | -0.06 | <10th |  6.96, 09/12/02
Iredell      Langtree         23.61 | -1.77 | 10-25 | 32.90, 06/21/16
Oconee       Oconee Statn Rd  30.29 | +0.03 | 10-25 | 32.08, 12/31/08
Rowan        Barber            7.45 | -0.53 | 25-50 | 11.15, 09/14/02
Spartanburg  Croft State Park 45.05 | +0.26 | 25-50 | 51.69, 03/17/13
Transylvania Blantyre         34.82 | +0.37 | 10-25 | 42.19, 12/12/08
Transylvania Pisgah Forest    16.27 | -0.51 | <10th | 17.86, 08/25/08
White        Unicoi State Pk   5.18 |    NA | < 1st |  5.91, 07/28/16

DEFINITIONS:

* DEPTH   = Note that groundwater is measured as depth below the
            surface, unlike streamflow and reservoir data which is
            the reverse or height above the surface.  Therefore, the
            higher the depth value, the less the groundwater supply
            because the groundwater level is further from the
            surface.

**MEDIAN  = Current depth values that are larger than the monthly
            median can be loosely correlated to drier-than-normal
            conditions while current depth values that are smaller
            than the monthly median can be loosely correlated to
            wetter-than-normal conditions.

***CHANGE = A POSITIVE CHANGE means the groundwater depth has
            increased or is further from the surface.  Therefore,
            a NEGATIVE CHANGE means the groundwater depth has
            decreased or is closer to the surface.  In periods of
            drought, negative changes are ideal.  However, positive
            changes are NORMAL during the late summer and early fall,
            as rainfall is typically isolated to scattered and less
            significant, causing losses to surface and subsurface
            water sources due to increased evapotranspiration,
            evaporation, and increased consumption, while negative
            changes are NORMAL during the late fall and winter, as
            widespread significant precipitation recharges surface
            and subsurface water sources and environmental demands
            are lower.

            Note, however, that for many groundwater sites, the
            depth of the wells are very deep and there is a lag
            between significant rainfall and deep infiltration
            into subsurface water supplies. If the rainfall is not
            significant or occurring over a sustained period of time,
            the water may never reach the groundwater wells.
            Additionally, if the rainfall is significant but
            occurring quickly and only once during a period of
            several weeks, a shallower groundwater well may spike and
            then return to near pre-rainfall levels.

****PERCENTILE = The percentile (%ile) values can be interpreted as
                 follows:

Less than 10th percentile    - Well-Below Normal
10th-25th percentile         - Below Normal
25th-50th percentile         - Slightly Below Normal/Near Normal
50th-75th percentile         - Slightly Above Normal/Near Normal
75th-90th percentile         - Above Normal
Greater than 90th percentile - Well-Above Normal

The percentile values are computed monthly. Therefore, percentiles
referenced in the chart above are for the month of February.
Groundwater well statistics change throughout the water year such
that the median monthly depth typically reaches a minimum in autumn
and a peak in late spring.  This can result in a dramatic change
in the percentile of an observed depth from one month to the next,
even if the observed depth does not change significantly.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------
..STREAMFLOW*...
----------------

The below-normal to near-normal precipitation received since late
November across the region has been sufficient enough to allow for
modest recovery in streamflows across the area. However, for many
streams, the meager recovery has only allowed flows to rise from
near-record lows to below-normal values.  Therefore, a prolonged
period of near-normal rainfall would be required to erase
medium-range (i.e., 28-day) deficits.  The southern North Carolina
Piedmont within the lower Catawba and upper Rocky River basins is
the only region within the area to currently have slightly above-
normal streamflows due to near-normal to slightly above-normal
rainfall and as such is no longer in any drought classification.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------- 28-DAY AVERAGE USGS STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES BY REGION --------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                  % OF    %ILE   CLASSIFICATION
REGION          NORMAL
                 (2/5)   (2/5)   (2/5)

NC Piedmont     32-146 |  6-83 | Blw Nrml (West) / Near Normal (East)
NC Foothills    49- 60 | 13-30 | Below Normal
NC Nrn Mnts     72- 84 | 34-46 | Slightly Below Normal
NC Cntl Mnts    38- 65 |  4-30 | Below Normal
NC Srn Mnts     38- 66 |  4-26 | Below Normal

SC Mnts/        37- 59 |  7-25 | Below Normal
   Foothills
SC Piedmont     28- 63 |  2-55 | Well-Below Normal

GA NE Mnts/     35- 57 |  2-14 | Well-Below Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont     34- 52 |  3-32 | Well-Below Normal

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
----- 28-DAY AVERAGE USGS STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES BY RIVER SYSTEM ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                     % OF     %ILE    CLASSIFICATION
RIVER BASIN          NORMAL
                      (2/5)   (2/5)   (2/5)

Broad (GA)            34- 46 |  3-15 | Well-Below Normal
Broad (NC/SC)/Pacolet 41- 64 |  6-51 | Below Normal
Catawba               32-146 |  8-83 | Blw Nrml (Uppr)/Nr Nrml (Lwr)
Enoree/Tyger          34- 59 |  5-13 | Well-Below Normal
French Broad          40- 66 |  8-26 | Below Normal
Nantahala/Tuckasegee/ 38- 65 |  4-24 | Well-Below Normal
Little Tennessee

Pigeon                54- 63 | 12-30 | Below Normal
Rocky/Yadkin          15- 48 |  6-25 | Well-Below Normal
Reedy/Saluda          26- 58 |  2-38 | Well-Below Normal
Tallulah/Chattooga    39- 44 |  7-14 | Well-Below Normal
Toxaway/Keowee/       28- 51 |  4-25 | Well-Below Normal
Savannah

---------------------------------------------------------------------

DEFINITIONS...

*RESERVOIR = Please note that streamflows along regulated rivers
 INFLUENCE   (i.e., rivers with reservoirs) may be influenced
             positively and/or negatively by the control of releases
             from those reservoirs.

---------------
..RESERVOIRS...
---------------

Even though the majority of the region has received below-normal to
slightly below normal precipitation since late November, it has been
enough to bring most major reservoirs in the region back to target
elevations for this time of year.  In most reservoirs across the
Catawba, Nantahala, Little Tennessee, and Tuckasegee river basins,
pool elevations are actually 1-2 feet above target pools, while
Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) projects are at or above their
flood guide curves (i.e., winter target pools) and are projected to
remain there through February.

The significant exception to reservoir recharge has been in the
Savannah Basin, where Lake Hartwell remains over 7 feet below winter
full pool. This is a significant deficit that will only be erased by
a prolonged period of above-normal rainfall.  Climatologically, this
recharge period occurs before late April and should be well underway
in February. The fact that recharge has not occurred through early
February means the climatological window for recharge is closing
rapidly.  This is not to say that recharge cannot occur after April,
but it is increasingly more difficult to achieve.

It is because of climatology that reservoir operators increase their
target pools or storage heading into the summer months, where the
scattered nature of convective precipitation makes it more difficult
to adequately keep up with water supply demands, which peak heading
into the middle of the growing season.  The rise in target pools
beginning in the latter half of winter and continuing through July,
complicate reservoir recharge because it takes greater volumes of
water to achieve full pool.

It is important to note that reservoir storage recoveries to date
may be tenuous if below-normal rainfall persists as reservoir
inflows (e.g., streamflows) remain below-normal.  Regression towards
drought conditions at area reservoirs is possible as target pools
rise while inflows remain steady or decline.

The rise in pool levels has allowed Duke Energy and the TVA to relax
or discontinue their drought management plans.  The lack of
improvement in the Savannah Basin has led to no change in the U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers drought management plan, which permit the
reduction in discharges, within regulated allowances, to
conserve as much pool as streamflow and precipitation inputs will
allow. For more information, please refer to the SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
section of this statement.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------- POOL ELEVATIONS and DROUGHT STAGES ----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                          AVG*      AVG  TARGET     2/6     2/6   2/6
                         ELEV      ELEV    ELEV   ELEV-     MIN   DGT
RESERVOIR       NWS ID    2/6     12/23     2/6  TARGET    ELEV* STGE
                         (ft)      (ft)    (ft)    (ft)    (ft)

BROAD SYSTEM

Summit          (None)    97.3 |  100.3 |  97.5 | -0.20 |  85.0 | NA
Gaston Shoals   (BLAS1)  98.95 |   99.6 |  99.0 | -0.05 |  98.0 | NA
Ninety-Nine Isl (NNIS1)  99.00 |   99.8 |  99.0 |  0.00 |  98.0 | NA

CATAWBA SYSTEM (As of 2/1, Total Reservoir Storage 131% of Target)

James           (BRWN7)  95.88 |  94.80 |  94.2 | +1.79 |  90.0 | 1
Rhodhiss        (RHON7)  97.04 |  96.65 |  97.0 | +0.04 |  93.0 | 1
Hickory         (OXFN7)  97.40 |  97.08 |  96.2 | +1.20 |  94.0 | 1
Lookout Shoals  (LKSN7)  96.33 |  97.45 |  97.0 | -0.67 |  93.0 | 1
Norman          (CWAN7)  96.07 |  93.91 |  94.2 | +1.82 |  90.0 | 1
Mountain Island (MOUN7)  97.46 |  96.70 |  96.0 | +1.46 |  94.3 | 1
Wylie           (FOMS1)  98.32 |  95.74 |  97.0 | +1.32 |  93.0 | 1
Fishing Creek   (FCDS1)  97.70 |  98.22 |  98.0 | -0.30 |  95.0 | 1
Great Falls     (GTFS1)  97.85 |  98.52 |  97.5 | +0.35 |  94.0 | 1
Cedar Creek     (CDCS1)  97.90 |  97.37 |  97.5 | +0.40 |  95.0 | 1

NANTAHALA/LITTLE TENNESSEE/TUCKASEGEE SYSTEM

Tanasee Creek (EFKN7)    86.82 |  85.65 |  85.0 | +1.82 |  81.0 | 1
Bear Creek    (BCDN7)    94.40 |  93.66 |  93.3 | +1.10 |  89.0 | 1
Cedar Cliff   (ICCN7)    98.38 |  97.98 |  98.0 | +0.38 |  96.0 | 0
Glenville     (THPN7)    91.49 |  92.00 |  90.2 | +1.29 |  84.0 | 1
Wolf Creek    (WCDN7)    86.50 |  85.16 |  85.0 | +1.50 |  81.0 | 1
Nantahala     (NANN7)    85.36 |  81.89 |  83.9 | +1.46 |  76.3 | ND
Queens Creek  (QCDN7)    89.50 |  88.80 |  86.8 | +2.70 |  85.8 | ND
Fontana       (FONN7)  1653.40 |1656.01 |1653.0 | +0.40 |1646.0 | NA

SAVANNAH SYSTEM (As of 2/1, Total Reservoir Storage 65% of Target)

Jocassee      (JCSS1)    89.33 |  86.97 |    NA |    NA |  77.0 | 2
Keowee        (KEOS1)    97.36 |  97.61 |    NA |    NA |  94.6 | 2
Hartwell      (HRTG1)   650.09 | 649.29 |657.58 | -7.49 | 625.0 | 2
Russell       (RBDS1)   474.70 | 472.64 |475.0  | -0.30 | 470.0 | 2

PROJECTIONS...

LAKE HARTWELL...assuming net inflows increase to 50% of normal then
                hold steady over the next two months, the pool
                elevation is projected to increase gradually through
                March, but there will be little change to the storage
                deficit as the guide curve increases at a similar
                rate in order to build storage for summer.

FONTANA LAKE... projected to remain near the flood guide curve
                through the winter if near-normal rainfall occurs.

DEFINITIONS...

*AVG ELEV   = Reporting the daily average elevation factors in the
              fluctuations in pool elevation due to scheduled
              discharges and/or power generation.

MINIMUM     = The minimal elevation is the lowest elevation that the
ELEVATION     pool can be while meeting local community and river
              system needs.  Drought release reduction plans may
              begin above the minimal elevation. For Lake Hartwell
              and Richard B. Russell Lake, the minimal elevation
              marks the bottom of conservation storage or the top of
              the inactive pool.  Drought release reduction plans
              begin at or above the minimal elevation, at 656.0 feet
              at Lake Hartwell and at 470.0 feet for Richard B.
              Russell Lake.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------
..FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
----------------------------

Every two weeks from January through early April, NWS Greenville-
Spartanburg (GSP) issues a Flood Potential Outlook for the entire
service area (see county-to-region legend at the end of this drought
statement for a list of counties serviced by NWS GSP).  These
outlooks forecast the potential for runoff, small stream, and
mainstem river flooding through late April, or the end of the winter
recharge season.  The outlook is prepared based on an assessment of
several hydrometeorological factors, including recent and forecasted
precipitation and observed soil moisture, groundwater levels,
streamflows, reservoir levels, and recent flooding events.

For more information, please visit:
http://weather.gov/gsp/floodoutlook

---------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------- LONG-TERM FLOOD OUTLOOK ------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Therefore, given current antecedent conditions and long-range
precipitation guidance, the long-term flood outlook through the
end of April 2017 is as follows...

Region        Runoff            Small             Mainstem
              Potential         Streams           Rivers

NC Piedmont   Near Normal     | Near Normal     | Near Normal
NC Foothills  Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal
NC Nrn Mnts   Near Normal     | Near Normal     | NA
NC Cntl Mnts  Near Normal     | Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal
NC Srn Mnts   Near Normal     | Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml

SC Mnts       NA              | Slight Blw Nrml | NA
SC Foothills  Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal    | Below Normal
SC Piedmont   Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal    | Well-Below Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal    | Well-Below Nrml
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Below Normal    | Below Normal    | Well-Below Nrml

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
..DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
=====================================================================

As the La-Nina signal continues to weaken and the eastern Pacific
SST anomalies approach zero, there exists little signal outside of
climatology to predict the evolution of the drought. Typically,
the period from February through April offers ample opportunities
for widespread rainfall and drought amelioration.  May is often a
transition month where widespread, convective rainfall is still
possible but the summertime pattern of more isolated to scattered
convective rainfall begins to dominate.  However, the current outlook
for February suggests below-normal rainfall will unfortunately
continue. Therefore, the best chance to significantly improve drought
conditions before the summertime convective pattern dominates will
likely be in March and April, which is a relatively narrow window
considering the streamflow and storage deficits that remain.

Despite the improvement in drought conditions across the region
this winter, moderate to severe drought conditions persist.  This
is because the region has received near-normal to below-normal
rainfall, so the hydrologic recharge has been incomplete.

Therefore, if below-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall
continues through April, fast and significant deterioration could
occur heading into late Spring and early summer as the growing
season commences and demands on the water supply increase.  It
remains critically important that the region makes a full recovery by
April in order to minimize impacts to the agricultural, recreational,
forestry, and water supply communities, and therefore, the general
public.

In conclusion, the forecast over the next month, taking us into early
March, calls for generally modest deterioration as the hydrologic
conditions continue to worsen absent significant rainfall while the
actual impacts slowly start to increase.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------- DROUGHT FORECAST --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Region         Current Drought          30-Day Drought Forecast
               (as of February 7)       (conditions on March 8)

NC Piedmont  | NO-D1 (Abnormally Dry) | Little Change
NC Foothills | D0-D1 (Abnormally Dry) | Slight Deterioration
NC Nrn Mnts  | D0    (Abnormally Dry) | Little Change
NC Cntl Mnts | D1    (Moderate)       | Slight Deterioration
NC Srn Mnts  | D1-D2 (Severe)         | Possible 1 Cat Deterioration

SC Mnts/     | D1-D2 (Severe)         | Possible 1 Cat Deterioration
   Foothills
SC Piedmont  | D0-D2 (Moderate)       | Slight Deterioration

GA NE Mnts/  | D2-D3 (Severe)         | Slight Deterioration
   Foothills
GA Piedmont  | D2    (Severe)         | Slight Deterioration

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
=====================================================================
---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------ PRODUCT SCHEDULE* --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

PRODUCT                                    | NUMBER  | ISSUED BY**

Intermediate Drought Information Statement | #2017I1 | Mar 17
Primary Drought Information Statement      | #2017P2 | Apr 28
Intermediate Drought Information Statement | #2017I2 | Jun 09

DEFINITIONS:
Intermediate = Update to Synopsis, tabular data, and Outlook only
Primary      = Complete Update to all sections
*Schedule    = The Drought Information Statement is only issued
               when D2 or greater drought conditions exist in the
               NWS Greenville-Spartanburg service area (see County-
               to-Region Legend below for serviced counties).
               Scheduled statements will be cancelled if D2 or worse
               conditions are removed from the service area.
**Issued By  = Other activities or responsibilities may delay the
               issuance of the Drought Information Statement. If
               receiving the statement by the above date is critical
               to your needs, please contact the author listed below.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==================
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
==================

The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a multi-agency effort involving
the following organizations:

- National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC)
- U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)
- U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
- U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
- U.S. Forest Service (USFS)
- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
- State departments of agriculture
- State forest services
- State and regional climatologists
- Private Reservoir Operators

County-specific drought categories are derived from the NDMC`s
USDM.

Agricultural information is derived from the USDA...the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC)...the North Carolina Department of
Agriculture and Consumer Services...and the National Integrated
Drought Information System.

Fire Danger classifications are courtesy of the USFS...the Georgia
Forestry Commission...and the North Carolina Forest Service.

The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center and the Southeast River Forecast Center.

The precipitation and temperature outlook is derived from guidance
produced at the CPC.

Groundwater levels and records are courtesy of the USGS.

Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy, Georgia Power,
and the USACE.

Additional impact information is gathered from various media
reports as available.

============
RESOURCES...
============

NDMC`s USDM...
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

USDM Classification Definitions...
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUs/ClassificationScheme.aspx

North Carolina Drought Mitigation Advisory Council...
http://www.ncwater.org/drought/

South Carolina Drought Response Committee...
http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Drought/drought_current_info.php

River Conditions and Forecasts via the NWS...
http://www.weather.gov/ahps/

Streamflow Conditions via the USGS...
http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch

Mid-Term and Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
via the CPC...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

==========================
COUNTY TO REGION LEGEND...
==========================

------------
..GEORGIA...
------------

COUNTY         REGION

Elbert         GA Piedmont
Franklin       GA Piedmont
Habersham      GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Hart           GA Piedmont
Rabun          GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Stephens       GA NE Mountains/Foothills

-------------------
..NORTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Alexander      NC Foothills (Northern)
Avery          NC Northern Mountains
Buncombe       NC Central Mountains
Burke          NC Foothills (Northern)
Cabarrus       NC Piedmont (Southern)
Caldwell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Catawba        NC Foothills (Northern)
Cleveland      NC Piedmont (Southern)
Davie          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Gaston         NC Piedmont (Southern)
Graham         NC Central Mountains
Haywood        NC Central Mountains
Henderson      NC Southern Mountains
Iredell        NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Jackson North  NC Central Mountains
Jackson South  NC Southern Mountains
Lincoln        NC Piedmont (Southern)
Macon          NC Southern Mountains
Madison        NC Central Mountains
McDowell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Mecklenburg    NC Piedmont (Southern)
Mitchell       NC Northern Mountains
Polk           NC Foothills (Southern)
Rowan          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Rutherford     NC Foothills (Southern)
Swain          NC Central Mountains
Transylvania   NC Southern Mountains
Union          NC Piedmont (Southern)
Yancey         NC Northern Mountains

-------------------
..SOUTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Abbeville      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Anderson       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Cherokee       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Chester        SC Piedmont (Eastern)
Greenville     SC Mountains/Foothills
Greenwood      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Laurens        SC Piedmont (Lower)
Oconee         SC Mountains/Foothills
Pickens        SC Mountains/Foothills
Spartanburg    SC Mountains/Foothills
Union          SC Piedmont (Eastern)
York           SC Piedmont (Eastern)

========================
QUESTIONS or COMMENTS...
========================

This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements
during the last drought period.  Additional enhancements
are planned for future drought statements. Your feedback and
recommendations are encouraged in order to ensure this product
meets user needs.  Please direct feedback...recommendations...
questions...and comments to:

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651
Phone 864-848-9970
joshua.palmer@noaa.gov

$$

JMP



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