Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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AXUS74 KHUN 121501
DGTHUN
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-TNC051-103-127-141515-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
901 AM CST THU JAN 12 2017

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED SINCE LAST WEEK...

SYNOPSIS...
ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID TUESDAY...JANUARY 10TH
2017...D3 DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM VALLEY HEAD...TO FORT PAYNE...GUNTERSVILLE...
ARAB...CULLMAN...AND SMITH LAKE. NORTH OF THIS LINE...SEVERE DROUGHT
/D2/ CONDITIONS COVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
HOWEVER...ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF COLBERT COUNTY AND THE
NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF LAUDERDALE ARE IN MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/.
THE ARE OF MODERATE DROUGHT ALSO INCLUDES SMALL PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN LIMESTONE AND MADISON COUNTIES. A VERY SMALL AREA OF
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS /D0/ IS SITUATED IN NORTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE
COUNTY.

IN TENNESSEE...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN
FRANKLIN...LINCOLN...AND MOORE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...D2 DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVED TO D1 CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTY...AND NOW ONLY A SMALL SE PORTION OF THE COUNTY
REMAINS IN D2 DROUGHT STATUS.

NOTE: PRECIPITATION AND OTHER CONDITIONS (STREAMFLOWS, SOIL
MOISTURE, ETC.) THAT DETERMINE DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS EACH WEEK FOR
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ARE BASED ON DATA THAT END AT 6 AM CST EACH
TUESDAY. SO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AFTER THE 6 AM CUTOFF IS
NOT FACTORED INTO DESIGNATIONS FOR THAT WEEK...BUT WILL OF COURSE BE
FACTORED INTO THE DROUGHT MONITOR DESIGNATIONS FOR THE FOLLOWING
WEEKLY ISSUANCE. ALSO...THE DESIGNATION OF DROUGHT IS A MULTI-
FACETED PROCESS THAT INCLUDES NUMEROUS DATA FROM A VARIETY OF
PHYSICAL SYSTEMS ON DIFFERENT SPACE AND TIME SCALES...WHICH INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...VARIOUS DROUGHT
INDICES...AND GROUNDWATER TO NAME A FEW.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
STATE AND LOCAL DECLARATIONS: THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND
COMMUNITY AFFAIRS (ADECA) OFFICE OF WATER RESOURCES HAD PLACED ALL
ALABAMA COUNTIES IN THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AND FORECAST AREA
IN A `DROUGHT EMERGENCY` LATE LAST YEAR THROUGH EARLY THIS YEAR.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST DROUGHT DECLARATION FROM ADECA ISSUED JANUARY11TH
NOW PLACES ALL OF THE COUNTIES IN THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AND
FORECAST AREA (CWFA) IN A DROUGHT ADVISORY. THE EXCEPTION IS CULLMAN
COUNTY WHICH IS NOW IN A DROUGHT WARNING. THESE IMPROVEMENTS IN
CLASSIFICATION IS A REFLECTION OF THE IMPACT OF RECENT RAINFALL ON
SOILS AND STREAMFLOWS.

THE TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY /TEMA/ REMAINS IN A STATE
OF EMERGENCY DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN
TENNESSEE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. WHILE
WIDESPREAD DUTY PERSONNEL ARE NOT CALLED TO DUTY...ONLY SPECIFICALLY-
NEEDED PERSONNEL ARE REQUIRED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
SINCE THE PRIMARY GROWING SEASON HAS NOW ENDED IN THE REGION...CROP
AND PROGRESS CONDITION REPORTS ARE NO LONGER BEING ISSUED FROM THE
USDA NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE. THESE REPORTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RESUME UNTIL APRIL. NEVERTHELESS...D3 AND D4 DROUGHT
CONDITIONS DURING THE GROWING SEASON LAST YEAR RESULTED IN DISASTER
DECLARATIONS FOR ALL OF THE COUNTIES IN THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING
AND FORECAST AREA AS PRIMARY NATURAL DISASTER AREAS DUE TO DAMAGES
AND LOSSES CAUSED BY THE RECENT DROUGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE COUNTIES
OF COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN (AL)... FRANKLIN
(TN)...JACKSON...LAUDERDALE...LINCOLN...MADISON...MARSHALL...MOORE...
MORGAN...LAWRENCE...AND LIMESTONE.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO BURN RESTRICTIONS FROM THE ALABAMA FIRE
COMMISSION (AFC). NEVERTHELESS...THE AFC ADVISES ANYONE CONDUCTING
OUTDOOR BURNING TO FOLLOW SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. ANY FIRE MORE THAN A
QUARTER ACRE IN SIZE OR WITHIN 25 FEET OF A FORESTED AREA REQUIRES A
PERMIT FROM THE AFC.

THE STATE OF TENNESSEE RESCINDED THEIR BURN BAN ON DECEMBER 19TH
2016. THERE ARE NO COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE BURN BANS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE IN THE STATE. HOWEVER...A DEBRIS BURNING PERMIT FROM THE
TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE DIVISION OF FORESTRY IS REQUIRED
THROUGH MAY 15, 2017 TO BURN LEAF AND BRUSH PILES FOR RESIDENTS IN
FRANKLIN...LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES. CITIZENS MAY OBTAIN BURN
PERMITS BY GOING TO WWW.BURNSAFETN.ORG.

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AVAILABLE FROM THE U.S. FOREST SERVICE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT
SYSTEM SHOWS THAT VALUES HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY. VALUES ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA NOW BELOW 200.

OTHER IMPACTS...
DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE DROUGHT...LOCAL NEWS REPORTED THAT MANY
HOME FOUNDATION REPAIR BUSINESSES IN NORTHERN ALABAMA WERE BUSY
BECAUSE DRY CONDITIONS HAD CAUSED LARGE CRACKS AND OTHER DAMAGE TO
HOME FOUNDATIONS. ALSO...COUNTY OFFICIALS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA REPORTED THAT LARGE NUMBERS OF CRACKS HAD APPEARED ON
ROADWAYS DUE TO THE DROUGHT. THIS INCLUDED PORTIONS OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE PARKWAY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT AREAS. THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN SPOTTY REPORTS OF OTHER ROADWAYS IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/ THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
ISSUES/DAMAGE DUE TO THE DROUGHT.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
OVER THE PAST SEVEN DAYS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WAVERED FROM MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE REGION
ON THE 5TH AND BROUGHT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DID NOT CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS ON THE
6TH...7TH...AND 8TH. TEMPERATURES AVERAGED AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THE 7TH AND 8TH. AFTERWARD HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON
THE 11TH...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WAS
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOST SITES
RECORDING UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND SOME EVEN LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. NORMAL WEEKLY RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
AROUND 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES.

OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN ABOUT ONE TO
TWO INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...WITH VALUES AROUND TWO TO THREE INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS STILL REMAIN. AT 90-DAY TIME
SCALES (GOING BACK TO EARLY OCTOBER)...RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE STILL
AROUND SIX TO EIGHT INCHES IN MUCH OF CULLMAN COUNTY...AND FOUR TO
SIX INCHES IN MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA. ON LONGER TIMESCALES OUT TO SIX
MONTHS...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ARE WORST IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...GENERALLY FROM MORGAN AND CULLMAN
COUNTIES...THROUGH MARSHALL COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHERN JACKSON AND
WESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES. DEFICITS IN THIS AREA ARE STILL AROUND EIGHT
TO TWELVE INCHES IN MOST AREAS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LAST YEAR WHICH HAS HELPED LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND
SUSTENANCE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE RECENT METEOROLOGICAL FALL
(SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER) RANKS AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT
HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE SHOALS AND SECOND WARMEST AT SCOTTSBORO. 2016
FINISHED AS THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD AT HUNTSVILLE...AND 2ND
WARMEST AT MUSCLE SHOALS...WHILE RANKING AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD OR
IN THE TOP FIVE WARMEST AT SEVERAL OTHER SITES IN THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES DURING JANUARY SO FAR HAVE AVERAGED A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH DAILY TEMPERATURES HAVE WAVERED SHARPLY FROM ABOVE
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL AND THEN BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL RECENTLY.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND EVEN 70S AT
SOME SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND...BUT HIGHER CHANCES OF RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FOR THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION
TOTALS FOR THE NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL.

THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO /JAN 19TH - JAN 25TH/ FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATELY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD.

THE LATEST SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR (JANUARY THROUGH MARCH) FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. THE LATEST
SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FOR THE PERIOD FROM DECEMBER 15TH
THROUGH MARCH 31ST INDICATES THAT THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BUT IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
RIVER AND CREEK STREAMFLOWS HAVE FALLEN ONCE AGAIN DUE TO RECENT BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MOST 7-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS REMAIN BELOW
THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOWEST STREAMFLOWS
INCLUDE:

MULBERRY FORK...2ND PERCENTILE
BIG WILLS CREEK...8TH PERCENTILE
CYPRESS CREEK...10TH PERCENTILE
BIG NANCE CREEK...11TH PERCENTILE
FLINT RIVER...20TH PERCENTILE
SOUTH SAUTY CREEK...20TH PERCENTILE
ELK RIVER...22ND PERCENTILE
PAINT ROCK RIVER...23RD PERCENTILE

LAKE AND RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE HEAVILY REGULATED TENNESSEE RIVER
SYSTEM HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNAFFECTED BY THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAST YEAR AND ARE OPERATING WITHIN OR NEAR NORMAL POOL LEVELS.
HOWEVER...TIMS FORD LAKE CONTINUES TO OPERATE ABOVE THE NORMAL GUIDE
CURVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LEWIS SMITH LAKE HAD BEEN OPERATING
BELOW ITS NORMAL GUIDE CURVE SINCE EARLY SUMMER...BUT VALUES ARE NOW
JUST A LITTLE ABOVE THE NORMAL LOW POOL LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE LATEST DAILY SOIL
MOISTURE RANKINGS AS OF JANUARY 11TH...INDICATE A CONTINUANCE OF LOW
SOIL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PERCENTILE RANKINGS ARE AS LOW
AS THE 1ST TO 5TH PERCENTILES IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO THE 10TH TO
20TH PERCENTILES IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY GROUNDWATER WELL SITE IN CULLMAN COUNTY
SHOWS THAT GROUNDWATER LEVELS FELL BELOW THE DAILY MEDIAN VALUE
DURING THE MARCH TO LATE APRIL PERIOD AND HAVE SINCE REMAINED BELOW
AVERAGE SINCE THAT TIME. WATER LEVELS DROPPED FROM SEPTEMBER TO LATE
NOVEMBER...AND REBOUNDED A LITTLE IN EARLY DECEMBER...BUT HAVE SINCE
BEEN NEARLY STEADY. VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT THE MONITORING SITE IN LAWRENCE
COUNTY DECLINED RAPIDLY FROM EARLY SEPTEMBER TO LATE NOVEMBER...BUT
ROSE SHARPLY AFTER RAINFALL IN LATE NOVEMBER AND EARLY DECEMBER.
DESPITE RECENT DRYNESS...VALUES ARE STILL NEAR THE MEDIAN VALUE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOWS OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS
FOR SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY...JANUARY 19TH.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
/USE LOWER CASE/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR WEB PAGE...HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT ALABAMA DROUGHT DECLARATIONS...VISIT
HTTP://WWW.ADECA.ALABAMA.GOV/DIVISIONS/OWR/PAGES/DEFAULT.ASPX

FOR INFORMATION FROM THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION...VISIT
HTTP://FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV/

WILDFIRE INFORMATION FROM THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION...
HTTP://FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV/FIRE_TOTALS.ASPX?BV=1&S=4

RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

STREAMFLOWS ARE OBTAINED FROM THE USGS AT...
HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/INDEX.PHP

LAKE LEVELS FOR THE TENNESSEE RIVER LAKES CAN BE OBTAINED FROM
HTTP://WWW.TVA.COM/LAKEINFO/

USGS GROUNDWATER WELL SITE INFORMATION FOR ALABAMA...
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/AL/NWIS/CURRENT/
?TYPE=GW&GROUP_KEY=COUNTY_CD

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WERE PROVIDED BY THE U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...AND THE STATES OF ALABAMA AND
TENNESSEE.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE DROUGHT...CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE
320A SPARKMAN DRIVE
HUNTSVILLE AL 35805
PHONE: 256-890-8503
SR-HUN.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

KDW


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