Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5
643
AXUS73 KMPX 091833
DGTMPX
MNC009-041-095-097-121-145-149-153-100645-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
133 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE MINNESOTA...AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

SYNOPSIS...

SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED SOMEWHAT OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE PAST WEEK.

ALTHOUGH APRIL PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
RECEIVED LESS THEN SEVENTY FIVE PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
VALUES. IN FACT...MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
REGISTERED BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL VALUES. THE AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION THAT FELL VARIED FROM ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES TO
NEAR THREE INCHES SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM...RUSHMORE TO ST CLOUD
TO MORA. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...RAINFALL OF JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH WERE RECORDED. MUCH OF FAR WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA RECEIVED ONLY FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...TO NEAR
ONE HALF OF AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF MAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA RANGED FROM AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER FAR
WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES...TO BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
REGISTERED BETWEEN ONE AND ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ON AVERAGE. THIS EQUATED TO BETWEEN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...TO BETWEEN 75 TO
NEAR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
A SMALL SECTION OF CENTRAL. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN INCURRED
BETWEEN 100 AND 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE PERIOD ENDING MAY 8TH.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

LOCAL AREAS AFFECTED.

...MINNESOTA...

SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ CONDITIONS WERE PREVALENT OVER CENTRAL AND MUCH
OF NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ORTONVILLE TO
BELGRADE TO CLEAR LAKE TO ONAMIA.

MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS WERE SITUATED OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE...SAVE FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NEAR
LAKE OF THE WOODS...WHICH VARIED FROM ABNORMALLY DRY TO NORMAL
CONDITIONS.

...WISCONSIN...

MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS WERE SEEN OVER THE MAJORITY OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MINUS THE EASTERN HALVES OF CHIPPEWA AND
EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES. THESE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND EAU
CLAIRE COUNTIES WERE DESIGNATED AS ABNORMALLY DRY.

SOIL CONDITIONS.

AS OF MAY 4TH...

...MINNESOTA...

IDEAL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MINNESOTA DURING THE PAST WEEK
ENDING MAY 3RD...ALLOWING RAPID PLANTING PROGRESS DURING THE
6.1 DAYS SUITABLE FOR FIELDWORK. THIS WAS THE MOST DAYS SUITABLE
FOR FIELDWORK SO FAR THIS SEASON. FARMERS WERE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND THE NEED FOR RAIN TO HELP CROP GERMINATION
AND PASTURE GROWTH. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CAUSED TOPSOIL
MOISTURE SUPPLIES TO DECLINE TO 6 PERCENT VERY SHORT...39 PERCENT
SHORT...55 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND ZERO PERCENT SURPLUS. SUBSOIL
MOISTURE SUPPLIES WERE RATED 5 PERCENT VERY SHORT...37 PERCENT
SHORT...58 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND ZERO PERCENT SURPLUS.

CORN PLANTING CATAPULTED TO 83 PERCENT COMPLETE...THE SECOND HIGHEST
AMOUNT PLANTED BY THIS DATE IN 30 YEARS. CORN HAS STARTED TO EMERGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. THIRTY TWO PERCENT OF
THE SOYBEAN ACREAGE HAS BEEN PLANTED...THE MOST PLANTED BY THIS DATE
IN 30 YEARS. BARLEY WAS 46 PERCENT EMERGED ALMOST 4 WEEKS AHEAD OF
LAST YEAR AND 17 DAYS AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. FIFTY
FOUR PERCENT OF SPRING WHEAT ACREAGE WAS EMERGED...FOUR WEEKS AHEAD
OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR...AND ALMOST 3 WEEKS AHEAD OF AVERAGE.


...WISCONSIN...

THERE WERE 6.7 DAYS SUITABLE FOR FIELDWORK DURING THE WEEK ENDING
MAY 3RD.  CLEAR...SUNNY DAYS SAW FARMERS TAKE TO THE FIELDS IN FORCE
STATEWIDE. SUN AND WIND DRIED OUT SOILS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH
SOME REPORTERS NOTING DUSTY FIELD CONDITIONS.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED ONE HALF OF AN INCH...TO 1.0 INCHES OF
MOISTURE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. TOPSOIL MOISTURES FOR WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ENDING ON MAY 3RD WERE TWO PERCENT VERY SHORT...25
PERCENT SHORT...68 PERCENT ADEQUATE FIVE PERCENT SURPLUS. SUBSOIL
MOISTURE INCREASED NOTICEABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK...AVERAGING 2
PERCENT VERY SHORT...31 PERCENT SHORT...65 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND
TWO PERCENT SURPLUS.

CORN PLANTED WAS THIRTY SEVEN PERCENT COMPLETE...THE MOST PLANTED
DURING THE PAST WEEK IN MORE THEN 30 YEARS. CORN PLANTED STANDS AT
42 PERCENT COMPLETE...ELEVEN DAYS AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE.
OATS PLANTED WAS AT 80 PERCENT COMPLETE...TWENTY TWO DAYS AHEAD OF
LAST YEAR AND 17 DAYS AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. POTATOES
PLANTED CONTINUED TO PROGRESS...REACHING SEVENTY FIVE PERCENT.


RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS.

AS OF MAY 9TH...RIVER FLOWS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA HAD IMPROVED TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL WITH FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ABOVE NORMAL. MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS
RANGED BETWEEN TEN AND FIFTY PERCENT OF NORMAL. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...HOWEVER...RECORDED
WATER LEVELS AS HIGH AS 140 TO 170% OF NORMAL.

AS OF MAY 9TH...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RIVER FLOWS VARIED
BETWEEN 55 PERCENT TO 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS EQUATED TO RIVER
LEVELS FROM NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS...AS PERSISTENT
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK NOTICEABLY IMPROVED RIVER
LEVELS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DROUGHT REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS ENDING
MONDAY...AS A POTENT STORY SYSTEM TREKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE DROUGHT
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FRIDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY.


FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.

...MINNESOTA...

AS OF MAY 9TH...THE FIRE DANGER RATING FOR MINNESOTA WAS MODERATE
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE...FROM BARRY TO BELGRADE TO PRINCETON TO
MOOSE LAKE. NORTH OF THIS LINE MUCH OF MINNESOTA WAS WAS UNDER LOW
FIRE DANGER RATING. BURNING PERMITS ARE REQUIRED SOUTH OF A LINE
...FROM BARRY TO BELGRADE TO WATERTOWN TO BELLE PLAINE TO RED WING.
RESTRICTED BURNING - VARIANCE PERMITS ONLY ARE REQUIRED NORTH OF THIS
LINE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON BURNING PERMITS IN MINNESOTA...VISIT THE
MINNESOTA DNR WEB SITE OR CALL 1-888-MINNDNR...OR IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO CALL 651-296-6157.

...WISCONSIN...

AS OF MAY 9TH...THE FIRE DANGER RATING FOR MOST OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HAD IMPROVED TO LOW. POLK COUNTY HOWEVER...HAD A
MODERATE FIRE DANGER RATING. PLEASE VISIT THE WISCONSIN DNR WEB SITE
FOR CURRENT BURNING RESTRICTIONS OR CALL 1-888-WIS-BURN (947-2876).


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
WILL BEGIN TO FILL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A STORM SYSTEM
IS EJECTED INTO THE DROUGHT REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY...SAVE THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL REMAIN DRY. A MORE VIGOROUS WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INITIATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN NEXT WEEKEND.
TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL VARY FROM THREE TENTHS
OF AN INCH...TO NEAR ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
DROUGHT REGION...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLEVIATE SOME OF
THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVALENT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY SOME OF THE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 8 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL ESTABLISH
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY NEAR AVERAGE CLIMBING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE
NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTER IS PREDICTING A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ENDING IN JULY...FROM THE
NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTER IS PREDICTING EQUAL CHANCES FOR
NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE THREE
MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS CALLING FOR A 33 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE U.S. MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 2015 INDICATED THAT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE U.S SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH JULY 31, 2015...
INDICATES CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THERE IS APPROXIMATELY A 70%
CHANCE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE SUMMER OF 2015...AND A GREATER THEN 60% CHANCE IT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS AUTUMN.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE...OR SOONER IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS CHANGE NOTICEABLY.


&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/INDEX.JSP

WISCONSIN STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE...
HTTP://WWW.AOS.WISC.EDU/~SCO/
MINNESOTA CLIMATOLOGY WORKING GROUP...HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/
DETAILED CROP INFORMATION AT USDA PUBLICATIONS WEB SITE...
HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/PUBLICATIONS/STATE_CROP_PROGRESS_AND_
CONDITION/INDEX.ASP
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION:

NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/CPC...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER
...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES
...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA ...USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS REPORT PLEASE
CONTACT:

CRAIG SCHMIDT OR TONY ZALESKI
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
CHANHASSEN, MN 55317
952-368-2542
CRAIG.SCHMIDT@NOAA.GOV

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.