Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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AXUS75 KTWC 220601 CCA
DGTTWC
AZC003-009-011-019-021-023-DDHHMM-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1100 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2014

...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN PINAL...WESTERN GRAHAM
AND NORTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES...
...SEVERE TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...

SYNOPSIS...

THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SINCE
THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LACK OF
PRECIPITATION IS WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOW PRESENT IN EASTERN PINAL...
WESTERN GRAHAM...NORTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES AND A SMALL PORTION
OF NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY.  THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS IN
A SEVERE DROUGHT STATUS...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN MOST PORTION OF
PIMA COUNTY. MOST OF WESTERN PIMA COUNTY IS IN MODERATE TO
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THESE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
WORSEN BEFORE THE MONSOON RAINS ARRIVE.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

THE GROWING SEASON IN MOST AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAS NOT
STARTED...SO VEGETATION IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THE CITY
OF SAFFORD IN GRAHAM COUNTY CONTINUES MANDATORY WATER RESTRICTIONS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA ARE 30 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OR LESS.

FIRE CONDITIONS...

THE FIRE DANGER RATING IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS ARE DRIER THAN THE LONG TERM AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN LAST YEAR AT THIS
TIME. MORE INFORMATION ON FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS AND POTENTIAL FIRE
CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND IN THE RELATED WEB SITES SECTION GIVEN
BELOW.

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY...CORRECTED PRECIPITATION DATA
PRECIPITATION IN JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY AT SITES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WAS MINIMAL OR ZERO. MANY STATIONS RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER...WHICH ARE INCLUDED IN THE
NUMBERS GIVEN BELOW.

                      WATER YEAR
STATION             OCT 1-  %%%%
                    JAN 31  NRML
TUCSON AIRPORT       3.05"   92%
NOGALES 6N           1.88"   41%
DOUGLAS              0.82"   25%
TOMBSTONE            1.22"   33%
WILLCOX              1.31"   31%
SAFFORD AG CENTER    1.48"   49%
ORGAN PIPE N.M.      3.70"  115%

SOUTHEAST AZ ON AVG  1.95"   46%

PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST SEASONAL FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ISSUED BY THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES AN INCREASED CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY.  HIGHER CHANCES EXIST
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. A
FORECAST OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS PRECIPITATION THAN AVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

MOST OF THE OBSERVED STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ARE
BELOW THE NORMAL MEAN.  THE PERCENTAGES OF THE NORMAL MEAN IN FEBRUARY
FOR SPECIFIC RIVER GAUGE LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN FRANCISCO RIVER AT CLIFTON...17%
GILA RIVER NEAR CLIFTON...22%
GILA RIVER AT THE HEAD OF SAFFORD VALLEY...18%
GILA RIVER AT CALVA...8%
SAN PEDRO RIVER NEAR CHARLESTON...50%
ARAVAIPA CREEK NEAR MAMMOTH...26%

SAN CARLOS RESERVOIR IS CURRENTLY AT LESS THAN 14% OF CAPACITY.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS CHANGE. SEE
THE WEB ADDRESSES GIVEN BELOW FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR... HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
SOUTHWEST FIRE CONDITIONS... HTTP://GACC.NIFC.GOV/SWCC/INDEX.HTM
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER... HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES... HTTP://WWW.AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR
WESTERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU OFFICE OF
THE ARIZONA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST... HTTP://AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
NWS WFO TUCSON... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS... HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TWC
USGS... HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/AZ/NWIS/CURRENT/?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

DATA FOR THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT
FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES. THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A
MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATE CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
520 NORTH PARK AVENUE, SUITE 304
TUCSON, AZ 85719
PHONE: 520-670-6526
W-TWC.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$


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