Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
202 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017

...WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...EXPECT BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA...

THIS SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING:

SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF R. B. RUSSELL LAKE AND
UPSTREAM FROM BURTONS FERRY...

THE EDISTO RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE BAMBERG...ORANGEBURG
COUNTY LINE IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE SANTEE RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE CLARENDON/BERKELEY COUNTY
LINE AND DOWNSTREAM ON THE SALUDA AND BROAD RIVERS AT THE
GREENWOOD/SALUDA...LAURENS/NEWBERRY...UNION/FAIRFIELD AND THE
CHESTER/FAIRFIELD COUNTY LINES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE WATEREE RIVER SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT FALLS
SOUTH CAROLINA...

AND THE PEE DEE RIVER BASIN IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

            ...SUMMARY OF RECENT WEATHER EVENTS...

OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS ENDING JANUARY 5TH 2017...THE HYDROLOGIC
AREA RECEIVED RAINFALL RANGING FROM 2 TO R INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND
UP TO 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
AREA.

            ...SOIL MOISTURE...

HERE IS A BREAKDOWN OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

D2...SEVERE DROUGHT COVERED THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION FROM LINCOLN
COUNTY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO MCCORMICK AND
NEWBERRY COUNTIES.

D1...MODERATE DROUGHT COVERED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
AREA AND A SMALL PORTION OF WESTERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES
THE AUGUSTA METRO AREA.

D0...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS FROM
LANCASTER COUNTY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THIS INCLUDES THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA.
...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS COVERED THE REMAINDER OF THE

THE AREA NEAR THE PEE DEE REGION THAT INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF
EASTERN CHESTERFIELD...LEE COUNTY...EASTERN SUMTER AND NORTHERN
CLARENDON COUNTY HAVE IMPROVED TO THE POINT OF NO DROUGHT IN THIS
AREA.

GO TO WWW.DROUGHT.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.


             ...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW...

THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF JANUARY
5TH 2017 INDICATED STREAMFLOWS WERE BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF
GEORGIA. THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT WERE THE LOCATIONS WHERE STREAMS
TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE STATE STREAMS TENDED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD. ...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

MANY RESERVOIRS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THEIR EARLY SPRING TARGET
POOLS.

LAKE THURMOND (FP 330.0 FEET)...
DEC 22 2016    320.26 FEET
JAN 05 2017    319.27 FEET
DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.99 FEET

LAKE GREENWOOD (FP 440.0 FEET)...
DEC 22 2016    435.81 FEET
JAN 05 2017    434.98 FEET
DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.93 FEET

LAKE MURRAY (FP 360.0 FEET)...
DEC 22 2016    354.26 FEET
JAN 05 2017    355.47 FEET
DIFFERENCE PLUS  1.21 FEET

LAKE MARION (FP 76.8 FEET)...
DEC 22 2016     74.01 FEET
JAN 05 2017     74.02 FEET
DIFFERENCE PLUS  0.01 FEET

LAKE WATEREE (FP 100.00 FEET)...
DEC 22 2016     98.31 FEET
JAN 05 2017     98.23 FEET
DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.08 FEET

DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...DUKE
ENERGY...SOUTH CAROLINA ELECTRIC AND GAS AND SANTEE COOPER

       ...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

NEAR TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY JANUARY 13...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. PLEASE SEE THE GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT WEATHER.GOV/CAE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 15 TO 19 CALLS FOR
AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
AROUND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 17 THROUGH 23 CALLS
FOR AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AROUND
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2017 INDICATES A 33 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH.

THE 3-MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY...FEBRUARY AND MARCH CALLS FOR A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 33 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

                 ...SUMMARY/OUTLOOK...

THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL
OF RIVER FLOODING IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

HISTORICALLY...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID
JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING
THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN
LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FLOOD SEASON BEGAN EARLY
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED DURING THE FALL OF 2015
AND EARLY WINTER OF 2016. THIS SET THE STAGE FOP MORE FLOODING IN
THE COMING MONTHS ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THIS REGION...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL. MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE LEANS
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS WETTER WEATHER THROUGH MARCH. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND RIVER
FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA LAKES ARE RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THEIR NORMAL TARGET POOL
FOR EARLY JANUARY. OVERALL...THE RELATIVE RISK IS JUST BELOW
NORMAL.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS
January 19 2017.


               ...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK PLEASE
CONTACT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2909 AVIATION WAY
WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170
PHONE: 803-822-8135
INTERNET ADDRESS CAEWX@NOAA.GOV
LEONARD.VAUGHAN@NOAA.GOV

VAUGHAN

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