Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 282116
ESFJAN

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY WITH FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE...

A deep mid-level trough will swing through the Central Plains with
an associated deepening surface low late this weekend into early
next week. This low will move slowly into the Midwest and drag a
cold front toward and through the Lower Mississippi Valley between
late Saturday and early Monday. The combination of an intense and
divergent upper level jet across the Lower Mississippi Valley and
strong influx of very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico should
enhance torrential rain potential from thunderstorms anticipated
over the forecast area, mainly Sunday. Widespread 2 to 3 inch
rainfall totals are expected but there is potential for a north to
south oriented axis in the forecast area to experience prolonged
training of storms and localized rain amounts in excess of 4 to 6
inches.

As the system moves across the area from late Saturday night into
Sunday, rainfall rates will be very high producing flash flooding
across the ARKLAMISS region. Many small streams and rivers will be
impacted with minor to moderate river flooding possible. The rivers
most vulnerable to flooding continue to be the Big Black, Pearl,
Chickasawhay, Leaf, and Tallahala Creek. Rivers and Bayous across
Southeast Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana will also see very sharp
rises with some going into flood.

Those living along small streams and flood prone areas should take
preparations now to remove any debris from drainage systems that
may have clogged by the early April flash floods.

Once again, rainfall rates may be intense as the system moves across
and could lead to some localized flash flooding. Please stay tuned
to local media and your National Weather Service as we approach this
rainfall event.


$$

JC/MVP



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