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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

000
FGUS74 KLCH 211516
ESFLCH
LAC001-003-009-019-039-053-055-079-099-101-113-115-TXC199-241-245-
351-361-457-221516-


PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1016 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013


...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG
RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
HAS IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS
ENABLES THE NWS TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SABINE RIVER NEAR
DEWEYVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 24 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE DEWEYVILLE FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 21.8 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


      CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
         VALID FOR MARCH 20 TO JUNE 19


 LOCATION     FS(FT)   90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
---------------------------------------------------------------------


SABINE RIVER
 BURKEVILLE    43      14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 17.6 19.0 26.0 27.9
 BON WEIR      30      15.8 16.3 16.6 17.0 18.2 19.3 20.0 24.2 27.4
 DEWEYVILLE    24      18.6 19.2 19.8 20.9 21.8 22.2 23.7 24.1 25.3
 ORANGE         4       1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.4  1.5  1.5  1.8
BAYOU ANACOCO
 ROSEPINE      17       6.3  7.4  8.7  9.6 10.0 11.9 13.4 16.7 19.2

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. BY
PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF
RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LCH
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$