Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1100 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 /1000 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016/

...THE 2016 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR EAST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

INTRODUCTION...

THIS IS THE 2016 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN TENNESSEE FOR EAST
TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS ISSUANCE OUTLINES CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.

IN SUMMARY...THE 2016 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FOLLOWING SECTIONS DESCRIBE PAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
FUTURE EXPECTATIONS.


SNOW PACK...

VERY LITTLE SNOW PACK IS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY THE HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS REPORTED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COVER.


PRECIPITATION...

OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 125
TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM
75 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS...PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 100
TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE PRECIPITATION WAS ROUGHLY
75 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND IN THE CLINCH AND HOLSTON VALLEYS
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM 75 TO 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL.

BEYOND 60 DAYS...DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA.


TEMPERATURES...

IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE VERY WET CONDITIONS...DECEMBER WAS ALSO
INCREDIBLY WARM...RUNNING 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. JANUARY WAS 2 TO
3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FEBRUARY WAS ROUGHLY 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL.
OVERALL...OUR TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST 90 DAYS HAVE AVERAGED ABOUT
3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


DROUGHT...

NONE OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A DROUGHT DESIGNATED AREA.


SOIL MOISTURE...

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
AN ACTIVE WINTER THAT PRODUCED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PAST 90 DAYS.


STREAMFLOWS...

STREAMS ARE STILL A BIT ELEVATED AS THEY CONTINUE TO RECEDE FROM
PEAKS FROM LATE FEBRUARY. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING.

SPECIFICALLY...IN THE HEADWATER AREAS OF VIRGINIA...THE UPPER CLINCH
AND UPPER HOLSTON BASIN STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOWER CLINCH AND POWELL BASIN STREAMFLOWS OF TENNESSEE ARE
CURRENTLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR RIVERS WHOSE HEADWATER AREAS ARE IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THE FRENCH BROAD...UPPER PIGEON...LITTLE TENNESSEE AND HIWASSEE
RIVERS...STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF DAILY NORMAL ARE GIVEN FOR RIVER POINTS
IN...OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM...OUR HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

RIVER...                        LOCATION...    3/2/16
N FORK HOLSTON RIVER           SALTVILLE VA     171%
CLINCH RIVER                   CLEVELAND VA     139%
CLINCH RIVER                    TAZEWELL TN     113%
POWELL RIVER                      ARTHUR TN     144%
EMORY RIVER                      OAKDALE TN     132%
PIGEON RIVER                       HEPCO NC     241%
FRENCH BROAD RIVER             ASHEVILLE NC     177%


TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN RESERVOIR LEVELS...

THE PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE FOR RESERVOIRS IN
THE TENNESSEE BASIN ABOVE CHATTANOOGA IS 86 PERCENT.


METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE WEEK TWO OUTLOOK FOR DAYS 8 TO 14 SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH SHOWS AN EXPECTATION FOR
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE TRENDS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...MEANING THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR
EITHER DRY...NEAR NORMAL...OR WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

THE LONGER TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF MARCH
THROUGH MAY INDICATES NO DISCERNIBLE TREND FOR THE TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...OR...VIRTUALLY EQUAL CHANCES THAT
THINGS COULD TURN OUT ABOVE...NEAR...OR BELOW NORMAL.


THE 2016 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...PAYING SPECIAL ATTENTION
TO THE MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM THE WET WINTER...AN
ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BASINS.


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THIS OUTLOOK WAS CREATED WITH INPUT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FORECAST CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...STATE AND COUNTY OFFICIALS...AND
VARIOUS COOPERATIVE WEATHER SPOTTERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES ARE USEFUL:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MORRISTOWN
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC
WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS
WWW.TVA.GOV
WWW.TENNESSEE.GOV/ENVIRONMENT
WWW.DEQ.VIRGINIA.GOV
WWW.NCWATER.ORG
DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


YOU MAY ALSO CONTACT...

FOR GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION OR FORECASTS...CALL 423-586-3771

FOR INFORMATION RELATED TO THIS OUTLOOK CONTACT...

GLENN CARRIN, SERVICE HYDROLOGIST, 423-586-3771
GEORGE MATHEWS, METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE
423-586-1964 MEDIA ONLY PLEASE

OR WRITE GLENN.CARRIN@NOAA.GOV AND GEORGE.MATHEWS@NOAA.GOV

$$

GDC



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