Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FGUS75 KPUB 090516 CCA
ESFPUB
COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-079-089-
099-101-105-109-119-110600-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1015 PM MST THU JAN 8 2015

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF JANUARY 1 2015...

AS OF JANUARY 1...THE 2015 SNOWPACK WAS BELOW MEDIAN ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. ACROSS THE ARKANSAS
BASIN OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THE SNOWPACK WAS HIGHLY VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM ABOVE MEDIAN OVER THE HEADWATERS PORTION OF THE
BASIN...TO BELOW MEDIAN OVER THE SOUTHERN TRIBUTARY BASINS.

SPECIFICALLY...THE RIO GRANDE SNOWPACK MEASURED 71 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
OVERALL WHICH WAS LOWER THAN 99 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A YEAR AGO AT THE
SAME TIME.  THE ARKANSAS BASIN SNOWPACK MEASURED 114 PERCENT OF
MEDIAN OVERALL...UP FROM 105 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A YEAR AGO AT THE
SAME TIME.  THE UPPER ARKANSAS HEADWATERS PORTION OF THE BASIN
MEASURED 146 PERCENT OF MEDIAN SNOWPACK...WHILE THE COMBINED
CUCHARAS AND HUERFANO BASINS...THE APISHAPA BASIN...AND THE
PURGATOIRE BASIN SAW JUST 75...46 AND 81 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
SNOWPACK...RESPECTIVELY.

AT THE END OF DECEMBER...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 67 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...HIGHER THAN 61
PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THE SAME TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS
BASIN...STORAGE WAS AT 79 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...UP FROM 59
PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THE SAME TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE GENERALLY OUTLOOKED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             81            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                84            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 78            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     68            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                 109            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       60            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   58            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            83            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       68            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                    66            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       80            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          56            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          68            APR-SEP


FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO RANGE FROM ABOVE TO BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                       104            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                        112            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                    110            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                  107            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                  119            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                84            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   92            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   82            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       85            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE 1ST OF 6 OUTLOOKS ISSUED FROM JANUARY THROUGH
JUNE.  THE NEXT OUTLOOK FOR THE 2015 RUNOFF SEASON WILL BE ISSUED
DURING THE FIRST PART OF FEBRUARY.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

LW


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