Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS63 KKRF 221530
ESGSIO

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1027 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:FLOYD R AT SHELDON IA 1N
SHLI4              12.0  14.0  16.0    10    5    6   <5   <5   <5
:FLOYD R AT ALTON IA
ALTI4              12.0  16.0  18.0     6    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FLOYD R AT LE MARS IA NO.2
LMRI4              20.0  21.0  24.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:W BR FLOYD R AT STRUBLE IA 2N
STUI4              14.0  15.0  16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FLOYD R AT MERRILL IA
MRLI4              12.0  14.0  16.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FLOYD R AT JAMES IA 1NE
JMEI4              26.0  30.0  34.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT SPENCER IA NO.2
SPWI4              10.0  14.0  16.0    11   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
:OCHEYEDAN R AT SPENCER IA 3SW
SPOI4               8.0   9.5  10.5     7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT LINN GROVE IA
LNNI4              18.0  19.5  21.0    14   20    6    9   <5   <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT CHEROKEE IA NO.2
CHKI4              17.0  21.0  24.0     7    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT CORRECTIONVILLE IA
CRRI4              19.0  20.0  21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MAPLE R AT MAPLETON IA
MAPI4              21.0  24.0  27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT TURIN IA 4S
TURI4              25.0  28.0  34.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST FORK DITCH AT HORNICK IA 1E
HOKI4              20.0  22.0  27.0     9   <5    7   <5   <5   <5
:PERRY CR AT SIOUX CITY IA 4N
SIOI4              24.0  26.0  28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD 8NW
WTRS2              10.0  11.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD
WBSS2               8.0  10.0  12.0    17   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD BRDWAY
WBWS2              11.0  14.0  16.0    10   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT CASTLEWOOD SD 1NW
CSWS2               9.0  11.0  16.0    16   26   <5    8   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT BROOKINGS SD 10SE
BRKS2               9.0  10.5  12.0    15   19    7   13   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT DELL RAPIDS SD 2SW
DERS2              12.0  14.0  15.0     7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX FALLS SD 38A
SFLS2              12.0  14.0  16.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SKUNK CR AT SIOUX FALLS SD 4SW
SIFS2              11.5  15.0  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX FALLS SD NO CL
SXFS2              16.0  18.0  31.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SPLIT ROCK CR AT CORSON SD 1E
COSS2               8.5  11.0  14.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ROCK R AT LUVERNE MN
LUVM5              10.0  12.0  14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ROCK R AT ROCK RAPIDS IA
RAPI4              13.0  16.0  19.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ROCK R AT ROCK VALLEY IA
RKVI4              16.0  17.0  19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT HAWARDEN IA
HAWI4              15.0  20.0  23.0    22   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT AKRON IA
AKRI4              16.0  18.0  20.0    17   10    7    9   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX CITY IA HWY 77
SXCI4              99.0 105.0 108.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0726 Z DH12 /DC1407221027/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:FLOYD R
SHLI4       5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    6.3/    8.1/   12.0/   14.0
ALTI4       5.9/    5.9/    5.9/    6.2/    8.2/   10.9/   12.7
LMRI4      10.7/   10.7/   10.7/   11.3/   13.8/   15.8/   20.0

:W BR FLOYD R
STUI4       4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.8/    6.5/    7.9/    8.9

:FLOYD R
MRLI4       0.3/    0.3/    0.3/    1.1/    3.1/    5.1/   10.9
JMEI4       9.7/    9.7/    9.7/   10.1/   11.6/   13.7/   18.8

:LITTLE SIOUX R
SPWI4       5.0/    5.0/    5.1/    6.5/    8.5/   10.5/   12.4

:OCHEYEDAN R
SPOI4       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.6/    3.7/    6.0/    8.5

:LITTLE SIOUX R
LNNI4      16.0/   16.0/   16.1/   16.4/   17.1/   18.5/   19.8
CHKI4       5.9/    5.9/    6.4/    8.4/   10.6/   16.1/   19.1
CRRI4       6.7/    6.7/    7.2/    8.1/    9.6/   13.9/   17.9

:MAPLE R
MAPI4       6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.9/    8.1/   10.2/   15.2

:LITTLE SIOUX R
TURI4       8.5/    8.5/    8.7/    9.6/   12.6/   16.9/   20.7

:WEST FORK DITCH
HOKI4       7.1/    7.1/    7.1/    8.1/   11.9/   17.5/   24.4

:PERRY CR
SIOI4       7.2/    7.2/    7.2/    7.2/    8.0/    8.8/    9.0

:BIG SIOUX R
WTRS2       4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.9/    6.1/    8.1/    8.4
WBSS2       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    6.3/    7.2/    8.8/    9.9
WBWS2       5.9/    5.9/    5.9/    7.0/    8.4/   11.0/   11.9
CSWS2       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    5.7/    7.3/   10.1/   10.9
BRKS2       3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    4.4/    7.5/    9.4/   11.2
DERS2       4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    5.4/    8.1/   11.1/   12.5
SFLS2       2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    3.5/    6.5/   10.2/   11.7

:SKUNK CR
SIFS2       4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    5.5/    7.3/    9.1

:BIG SIOUX R
SXFS2       6.6/    6.6/    6.6/    7.6/   10.3/   14.2/   15.5

:SPLIT ROCK CR
COSS2       2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    3.0/    5.2/    6.6/    8.6

:ROCK R
LUVM5       3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    4.3/    5.5/    7.0/    8.7
RAPI4       8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    9.0/   10.7/   12.2/   14.1
RKVI4       5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    6.9/    9.4/   12.1/   15.2

:BIG SIOUX R
HAWI4       7.1/    7.1/    7.2/   10.4/   14.8/   16.1/   18.0
AKRI4       7.3/    7.3/    7.3/   10.1/   15.2/   16.9/   18.8
SXCI4      77.0/   77.0/   77.0/   77.0/   78.9/   86.4/   89.4

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$




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