Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
000
FGUS61 KTIR 281836
ESGTIR
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
1241 PM EDT Friday April 28 2017

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MAY

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
THE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WATER RESOURCE FORECAST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY
CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS FOR THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE BASIN WITH
CLOSER TO NORMAL STREAMFLOWS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE
PRINCIPAL DRIVER OF THIS OUTLOOK IS A WET REGIME LOOKING LIKELY WHILE HEADING
INTO THE MONTH AND DURING ITS FIRST WEEK...WITH A LEAN TOWARD DRYING OUT FOR
MOST OF THE BASIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...
MAY WILL LIKELY SEE MANY POINTS IN THE WESTERN RIVERS IN FLOOD OR JUST RECEDING
OUT OF FLOOD DURING THE BEGINNING WEEK.  A NUMBER OF THE LONGER TERM INDICIES
SHOW A DRYING OUT OF THE BASIN IN THE FORM OF A BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE BULK OF THE BASIN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF MAY.
.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...
A LOOK AT RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL SHOWS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE
MAIN BULK OF THE BASIN.  A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDDLE BASIN WERE DRIER THAN
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH AS OF THIS WRITING.  HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY
TURN TO A MORE NORMAL DESIGNATIONS BY THE END OF THE MONTH DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE MONTH.

http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
LIKE THE RAINFALL DEPARTURES, MUCH OF THE BASIN STARTED NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.  THESE WILL LIKELY NORMALIZE BY THE END OF THE MONTH DUE TO THE COMING
RAINFALL.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
MUCH OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING NORMAL STREAMFLOWS WITH ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LARGE SWATHS OF THE CENTRAL BASIN.  THE WESTERN BASIN WILL VERY LIKELY BE
ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH DUE TO THE COMING EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE MONTH.  THE AFOREMENTIONED SWATHS OF BELOW IN
THE CENTRAL BASIN WILL LIKELE NORMALIZE AS WELL.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
POSITIVE, THEN TRENDING NEGATIVE = WET, THEN DRYING OUT

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
POSITIVE, THEN TRENDING NEGATIVE = WET, THEN DRYING OUT

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
NEUTRAL = NORMAL

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
NEUTRAL = NORMAL

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
THE BEGINNING OF MAY WILL LIKELY START OFF WITH LARGE SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN
OHIO RIVER BASIN....EASTERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WHEN
IT COMES TO STREAMFLOWS. A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THE VERY END OF APRIL WILL
LIKELY DRIVE THESE TO WELL ABOVE FLOOD LEVEL. MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
THEN SHOWS A GENERAL DRYING TREND FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE MONTH.  THIS WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN LOOKING RELATIVELY NORMAL.  HOWEVER, IF
THE WESTERN BASIN RIVERS START OUT QUITE HIGH LIKE ITS LOOKING LIKELY THEY WILL,
IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE MONTH TO RETURN THESE TO MORMAL....EVEN WITH A
DRYING TREND.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.