Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 101618
ESPNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JAN 10, 2017

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 DEC PRECIP     OCT-DEC PREC    JAN 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES             180            100               110
ANIMAS                       160             90               115
LOWER SAN JUAN               235            130                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         DEC FLOW       OCT-DEC FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               100%             75%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JAN 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                       97
VALLECITO                   132
LEMON                        98

TOTAL                        98


San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    178    83    280    210    160    132    215
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    310    82    520    375    275    225    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     49    91     75     60     45     37     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     55    85     87     68     49     40     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    168    80    275    210    145    110    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    172    89    250    205    150    122    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    580    79    990    770    520    400    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     48    87     73     57     40     32     55
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    390    94    505    435    345    270    415
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul    900    82   1450   1160    815    625   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul     24   104     36     29   19.0   14.0     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul    890    81   1450   1130    790    590   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     34   110     55     42     30     22     31

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G.Smith



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