Extended Streamflow Prediction
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FGUS65 KSTR 031602
ESPNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
March 3, 2017

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 FEB PRECIP     OCT-FEB PREC    MAR 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES             105            135               145
ANIMAS                       100            125               150
LOWER SAN JUAN               135            150                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         FEB FLOW       OCT-FEB FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               180%            180%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MAR 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                      104
VALLECITO                   120
LEMON                       100

TOTAL                       104


San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    245   114    325    275    210    175    215
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    440   116    595    495    375    310    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     65   120     83     74     57     48     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     75   115     97     86     65     55     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    235   112    335    265    200    168    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    225   116    295    240    190    157    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    840   114   1190    915    690    550    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     65   118     93     73     53     39     55
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    515   124    685    605    465    355    415
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul   1310   119   1780   1420   1120    880   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul     33   143     42     36     29     25     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1320   120   1840   1450   1130    875   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     43   139     59     47     37     28     31

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G.Smith



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